"It would be reckless if we said the physical caliphate was defeated so we could just leave, and I think anyone who looks at such a conflict would agree." Brett McGurk, special representative of the US president for the fight against the terrorist organization "Islamic state" (IS), said only last week.

On Wednesday, his boss Donald Trump decided that the US Army, which has about 2,000 troops in Syria, could easily withdraw from civil war. The air strikes against the terrorist militia are also to be ended, according to the Pentagon.

"We won against IS," claims Trump. That's wrong. The IS is weakened, but not defeated. The terrorist militia has lost 99 percent of its territory in Iraq and Syria. But she still defends her last retreat in the Euphrates Valley stubbornly. Several thousand jihadists are said to be there. In neighboring Iraq, the terrorists are proving with attacks, kidnappings and extortion that they are able to continue to challenge the state in a guerilla war.

Green light for Erdogan

And IS continues to create identity for militant Islamists around the world. This is shown by the attack in Strasbourg last week, which the militia claimed for itself. This is also shown by the murder of two Scandinavians in Morocco this week. In a video showing the killing of one of the two women, one man talks about the act of retaliation "for our brothers in Hajjin in Syria." Hajjin is a small town on the Euphrates, from which the jihadists retreated last week after heavy air raids by the US-led coalition.

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Power relations in Syria

But even more than the IS, the Syrian regime and Turkey will benefit from the withdrawal of US troops. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made it clear for years that he does not want to tolerate the presence of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) militia alliance led by Kurdish fighters. From Ankara it is said that a ground offensive against the areas controlled by the SDF east of the Euphrates is imminent. The rapid withdrawal of US troops who have been training and advising SDF units there, now gives Erdogan the green light for its military operation.

A devastating signal, beyond Syrian borders

After the US abandons the Kurds, they will inevitably have to tie themselves even closer to the Assad regime for fear of Turkey. Sooner or later, the Kurdish self-government in north-eastern Syria is threatening to end this situation. A self-government that cultivates an absurd cult of the personality around detained PKK leader Abdullah Öcalan and suppresses criticism of him and his disciples. But also a self-government, which is based on secular basic values, which gives women equal rights, take place in the elections, which are far freer than in any other Arab states. That the US withdraw the support of this democratic experiment is a devastating signal, far beyond the borders of Syria.

With the withdrawal Trump, who so much enjoys celebrating as the king of the deal, at the same time gives away his most important asset in negotiations on the post-war order in Syria. The presence of the US forces ensured that almost a third of Syria's land area is now under the control of the SDF allied with the West. The border area with Turkey is likely to be under Ankara's control over the next few months, with the large remainder falling to Assad without a fight between Damascus and the Kurds.

Iran's position is strengthened

Trump's decision is also negligent with regard to Iran: The US President and his National Security Advisor John Bolton never tire of calling the regime in Tehran the greatest danger in the region. At the same time, Trump's Syrian withdrawal has strengthened Iran's position in the region. If the northeast of Syria falls to Assad, that strengthens the land bridge of Iran, over Iraq to Syria and Lebanon, over which Tehran can bring weapons and Revolutionary Guards to the Israeli border.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already announced that his country will "continue to aggressively attack Iran's attempt to invade Syria."

Israel is strong enough to defend itself against Assad and his allies. The Kurds are not.