The questions posed by the US withdrawal in Syria

"We defeated ISIS [the Islamic State] in Syria, my only reason for being there during my presidency.After these historic victories, it is time to bring our extraordinary young people home." It is in a series of tweets, accompanied by a video, that Donald Trump confirmed Wednesday the disengagement of US troops from Syria. A "total" withdrawal, explained an anonymous official to AFP, who will intervene as quickly as possible, within 60 to 100 days.

After historic victories against ISIS, it's time to bring our young people home! pic.twitter.com/xoNjFzQFTp

Yet the departure of some 2,000 US troops currently deployed in northern Syria is not without questions. They leave behind allies, including France, still engaged on the ground, and civilian populations, including Kurds. The disengagement of Washington rebels the geopolitical maps of the region, leaving the door open to several powers, including Russia, Iran but also Turkey, to increase their influence. Not to mention that the announcement of the victory over Daesh is very controversial.

Daesh, really defeated?

This is Donald Trump's No. 1 argument: the defeated Islamic State, there is no reason to leave American "boys" in Syria. A year ago, the Russian and Iraqi governments announced the end of Daesh. As a "caliphate", it is true, the organization suffered defeats on defeats, ending in tatters. But many observers warn about the survival of pockets of resistance capable of leading a guerilla. According to the Syrian Observatory of Human Rights (OSDH), about 2,000 jihadists are holed up in southeastern Syria, as well as near the Iraqi border.

"Even if the end of the caliphate as territory is now clearly at hand, the end of ISIS will take a long time," said last week Brett McGurk, US envoy for the international anti-jihadist coalition . London and Paris repeated the same thing on Wednesday after the announcement of the withdrawal of US troops. "The international coalition against Daesh has made enormous progress," said a spokesman for Britain's foreign ministry. "But much remains to be done and we must not lose sight of the threat they pose, even without territory, Daesh remains a threat."

2 - But Daesh is not removed from the map, nor its roots, it is necessary to definitively defeat militarily the last pockets of this terrorist organization.

On Twitter, the French Minister of the Armed Forces, Florence Parly, emphasized that "Da'esh has gone underground and insurgent in its way of fighting. [ISIS] is not wiped off the map, nor its roots are elsewhere, the last pockets of this terrorist organization must be definitively defeated militarily. " For Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio, the disengagement of US troops is "an error that will haunt America for years."

What will happen to the European allies in Syria ...?

The American soldiers on the spot, essentially special forces, leave behind their allies, especially British and French. A real snub for those who have tried to convince Donald Trump to stay. Last April, on BFM TV, Emmanuel Macron was pleased to have "convinced [the US President] to stay in the long term" in Syria.

The flip-flop of the American president has, in principle, no impact on the French involvement on the spot. Thursday morning, the European Affairs Minister Nathalie Loiseau confirmed that France "remains" militarily committed to Syria. But the presence of the hexagonal army is limited to that of the air force, at least officially (because, according to France 24, special forces were present last August in support of the army army American). Last April, during the joint strikes, the Hexagon mobilized frigates and 16 fighter planes. Britain 4. Only United States allies can not guarantee the stability of the region.

... and for the Kurds?

It was the Kurdish allies of the US military who reacted most violently Thursday to the announcement of Donald Trump. In fact, in northern Syria, the YPG militia, or People's Protection Units, is fighting with Washington's support against Daesh. This withdrawal "will have a negative impact on the campaign against terrorism," warned Thursday the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which includes the YPG. "This will give terrorism an opportunity to recover and launch a new campaign in the region."

For these Kurds, American treason is all the more difficult to digest because they are under another threat: that of Turkey. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan on Monday threatened to "get rid" of this militia, which he considers a "terrorist" organization linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). So far, Washington's support has allowed the YPG to escape retaliation. This is an "abandonment", according to official sources quoted by the New York Times , which may have consequences in the future. The United States may find it very difficult to forge new partnerships with local allies on counterterrorist field operations in other countries, such as Afghanistan, Yemen or Somalia.

Who are the big winners of this withdrawal?

In addition to Daesh, the departure of US troops, which completely rebuff maps in geopolitical terms in the region, could benefit other forces. To begin, of course, with the regime of Bashar Al-Assad. The US administration has said and repeated in recent weeks that it was out of the question for it to organize the departure of the Syrian dictator. This disengagement leaves him a completely free field, as well as his Russian and Iranian allies. In fact, US Defense Minister Jim Mattis had warned against a precipitous departure from Syria, citing the risk of "leaving a vacuum that can be exploited by the Assad regime or its supporters."

In The Atlantic , the Deputy Director-General of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Kori Schake, believes that Donald Trump's reversal will "reward the regional destabilization undertaken by Iran and the Russian intervention". On the Iranian question, this decision is in total contradiction with the attitude of extreme firmness adopted so far by the American president.

What consequences for Syria's neighbors?

On the side of Israel, the disappointment is palpable in the statement released Wednesday by Benjamin Netanyahu. This one speaks of an "American decision", certainly known in advance. The country "will be able to defend itself" against the possible threats coming from Syria, assured the Prime Minister. Israel has already carried out dozens of strikes in Syria since the start of the war in 2011 targeting Iranian positions as well as Hezbollah, an Islamist organization of Lebanese origin allied to Syria.

According to Kori Schake, the Iraqi government, but also, a little further from Syria, Afghan, "have reason to be very, very worried" of the decision of Donald Trump. "If Syria can be so easily swept away, how can we justify continuing to help Iraq, where Daesh is worse off?" And how can the Afghan government be assured that the United States will not abandon it too, so the fight in Afghanistan costs more for less obvious progress?