On November 9, Moscow hosted a new round of talks on the settlement in Afghanistan, under the title "Moscow formula", which considered that the gain that could result from it is the participation of representatives of the Taliban movement for the first time, after about two years of the launch of dialogue Which witnessed two previous rounds did not yield any results, and dominated by the nature of regional dialogue with neighboring countries concerned with the Afghan issue.

Despite the qualitative progress in the dialogue talked about by Russia, it does not deny that it faces several challenges reflected by the outcome of the meeting, without denying that Moscow will continue its efforts to hold more meetings, especially in light of the evolving field conditions of the movement of the organization "Calling" from Syria, Iraq and some Middle Eastern countries to Afghanistan, which it considers a new threat to its interests.

Moscow formula

Russia's meetings to resolve the situation in Afghanistan between the local parties to the conflict have been called "Moscow formula", as the title has been limited for the past two years to the Afghan ring countries, which triumphed in successive rounds in February and April 2017, namely Russia, Iran, India, Pakistan, China and five of the Soviet Union (Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan) amid an agreement on the need to establish an internal settlement in Afghanistan as a common interest of these countries.

A central goal

But none of the two rounds has added a new dimension to this trend, although there is a central objective of dialogue in general, namely, "a road map for a settlement in Afghanistan." This course remained far from any breakthrough in content, because of the lack of participation of the parties concerned in the dialogue, and their keenness to develop conditions that the Russian Foreign Ministry described as "impotence."

Moscow sees the presence of the Taliban and its five representatives from its political bureau as an achievement that supports the chances of achieving the goal, saying it must continue its efforts to call on the Afghan government, which has a direct dialogue with its official envoy, to engage in talks such as " But the government did not change its position. The government merely sent a delegation from the Afghan Supreme Council for Peace, but it did not close the door to other possibilities in the future. A statement by the Afghan Foreign Ministry, prior to the launch of the last round, The talks hosted by Russia will be held Saa for direct peace talks with the militants in the future ».

Two main objectives:

Through these efforts, Russia seeks two main objectives:

1 - cut the way to the growing influence of «Dahesh» in Afghanistan

It seems that Moscow expects to face a confrontation in the future with the organization «Daqash», which is growing activity near its borders, and looking in this context for local allies can face that confrontation, which is evident in the speech of Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who considered That there are «common goals of all participants in the meeting, which is to face the phenomenon of growing (presence) inside Afghanistan». According to Nikolai Patrushev, the secretary of the Russian Security Council, "the increase in the number of militants in northern Afghanistan threatens the security of Central Asia, reaching 2000 people, including 70% of Pakistanis, 6% of Uzbeks, 4% of Chechnya and 3% of Arabs, 1% of Chinese, and 14% of Afghans. "

2 - Reduce the repercussions of US moves in Afghanistan

Which Russia considers a threat to its interests. According to her vision, after 17 years of war in Afghanistan, where the United States has not settled the situation there, despite the rise of the bill, which amounts to about one trillion dollars, according to some estimates, does not appear to be fundamentally determined to this decisiveness, which means that Moscow is skeptical of intentions In keeping the situation in Afghanistan under control.

Strict positions

In this context, the Russian President Vladimir Putin's Special Envoy for Afghanistan, Zamir Kapolov, said: "It is better to avoid words like penetration or defrosting the ice. Which Moscow wants, is to reach a road map, is still unclear and not brewed, and its implementation depends on many factors may be highlighted the next elections in this country ». This may be due to the fact that there are two challenges that Russian efforts may face in this context. The first is the insistence of the parties to the conflict to set preconditions for direct negotiations under the auspices of Moscow. The Afghan government requires that the Taliban recognize the constitution and thus the legitimacy of the government. This is rejected by the movement, which according to its leaders considers the government illegitimate, Backed by US forces. The second is that the Taliban refused to back down from the cease-fire before negotiating a timetable for the withdrawal of US troops, a position Russia does not seem likely to succeed in changing soon. Although the movement's announcement of talks with US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad on October 13 may indicate that the movement is keen to expand the range of options available to it, this does not mean that Washington may seek to block Russian moves, Especially with the announcement of a possible visit he may have made to Moscow in the coming period.

Difficulty solving

In the current circumstances, it can be said that reaching a settlement to the Afghan crisis seems difficult, especially since there are no indicators that could enhance the possibility of reaching a national consensus on the frameworks and determinants of such a settlement, in light of the escalation of the conflict between the main local parties, On political and field developments in Afghanistan.

- The announcement of «Taliban» on October 13 last,

Talks with US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad indicate her concern

To expand the margin of options, but that does not mean that Washington

May seek to block Russian moves, especially with a possible visit

To «increased» to Moscow in the coming period.