It is a spectacular coup: Parliament President Juan Guaidó, a young, until a few weeks largely unknown junior politician, can be sworn during a mass demonstration in Caracas to the interim head of state and gives the incumbent Nicolás Maduro with it the hardest counter-stroke since taking office. Whether or not Guaidós Chuzpe really ends Maduro's or proves to be a crackpot will decide in the coming hours or days: only when the military lashes out on his side will he have a real chance to drive Maduro out of office. So far, there were only isolated, sporadic rebellions lower ranks, the officer corps held to Maduro.
The generals will now weigh their interests: only if they can be certain that they will go unpunished and retain at least some of their privileges will they withdraw Maduro's support. It will also play a role in these considerations that many senior officers are involved in drug trafficking, smuggling and other crimes. Maduro keeps his protective hand over her, Guaidó will not be able to guarantee that either. Against several generals is determined in the US, the routes to exile are largely blocked.
If the armed forces believe their interests are better safeguarded under Maduro, the political capital of the young politician Guaidó would quickly be exhausted - and he could provoke a bloody backlash by the government.
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Uprising against Maduro: The day of Juan GuaidóTrump's motives
Guaidó has certainly not acted without first agreeing with Washington, as evidenced by the prompt recognition of his presidency by Donald Trump. But the US has often been on the wrong side in Latin America, doubts about its motives are appropriate. In the case of resource-rich Venezuela, it is not just about restoring democratic conditions: the winner of the power poker and his friends will be rewarded with oil, gold and rare earths.
Trump's warm words could prove to be a poison for Guaidó in retrospect: the American expects a gesture in return for which his price is not yet known. If Guaidó does not quickly succeed in promising the majority of the population economic recovery, he will soon be denounced as a lackey of Washington.
Mass protests against incumbent Maduro:
AFP
But it is also possible that Maduro will now approach his opponents and make concessions, such as the convening of new elections. He would split the fresh opposition and gain air to consolidate his rule. He has proven that he masters this game many times, otherwise he would hardly have held on to power for so long.
The international community would also be divided if Maduro promises concessions: Europe and many Latin American countries are pushing for dialogue; Trump and his vassals in South America would want to intensify the confrontation.
Guaidó looks young and fresh at the age of 35, breathing new life into the quarreling opposition. Once the element of surprise has evaporated, he needs immense political skill to keep his action in check. It is completely open whether he is up to this challenge.