Profit and loss accounts for Iraq and Iran to renew the Algiers agreement

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Relations between Iran and Iraq are improving markedly after decades of feuding and bloody conflict, according to the Washington-based Stratfor Center for Strategic and Security Studies, noting that Tehran is seeking to strengthen its political and economic ties amid pressure from growing Western economic sanctions. In alleviating agricultural problems and security concerns.

The revival of the border agreement signed between the two countries in Algeria in 1975 serves to promote a new era of cooperation and friendly relations between the two neighboring countries, the Center said in a report published on its website.

The two sides agreed during a visit by Iranian President Hassan Rowhani to Baghdad last month to implement the provisions of the Algiers Convention, which was canceled by the late President Saddam Hussein in September 1980, before the Iran-Iraq war three days.

The center - one of the most important institutions dealing with the intelligence sector in the United States - that the decision of the two countries to return to the Convention on the demarcation of the border between them after 44 years of conclusion raised more interest in Iraq because of its historical and cultural importance.

The two countries have decided to amend their land and maritime boundaries based on the original provisions of the Algiers Convention. For Iraq, this would mean giving up the land and sea water that has been under its control for decades. The most important of these is the Shatt al-Arab waterway, which has long been the dividing line between the Arabs and Iran.

The agreement, however, has caused some Iraqis to think they have received a bad deal compared to their Iranian neighbors. Despite these fears, Iraq's benefit from reviving the agreement will be more than the losses it will suffer at least in the short perspective.

A painful memory
The 1975 Algiers agreement included Iran giving up support for the Kurds in northern Iraq in exchange for recognition of the Arab divide by the two countries.

The agreement played a role in easing the hostilities between the two countries for several years until the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, which upset the balance of power in the region.

This led to the suspension of the Convention, Shatt al-Arab became the scene of a fierce war between Baghdad and Tehran continued throughout the eighties of the last century.

According to the Stratfor report, the Shatt al-Arab today became a graveyard of sunken Iraqi and Iranian ships and boats, leaving a "painful memory of a bloody history shared by the two countries."

The US position in Iraq's concession of some of its rights in the Shatt al-Arab does not pose any real threat to its basic economic interests. The sharing of the watercourse will not limit Baghdad's activities in its most important sectors: oil production. Most of its oil exports are shipped through pipelines to oil facilities near Faw area in the Arabian Gulf.

This will not harm Iraq's ability to import as long as most of its food and other goods are shipped to the port of Umm Qasr on the border with Kuwait.

Most importantly, Iraq may also realize that it needs to move forward with projects along the Shatt al-Arab to contain the separatist protests in the city of Basra, which threaten Baghdad's control of the oil wealth on which it relies heavily.

For Iraq to do so, it must have a good relationship with Iran, especially with its business partners.

There is a problem of water salinity in Iraq, which threatens the agricultural sector, in addition to the phenomenon of continuous drought, which made water management difficult to the Iraqi authorities.

Iraq is increasingly dependent on the importation of vital foodstuffs from Iran, especially in areas close to its southern border, in addition to Iraq's need to help Iran cleanse the Shatt al-Arab from pollution, which may contribute to reducing the salinity of water that is currently harmful. Iraq's agricultural production, according to the report.

Difficult balance
Regardless of its potential short-term economic implications, reviving the Algiers agreement is a testament to the extent to which the level of rapprochement between Iran and Iraq, which may have long-term geopolitical effects on Baghdad,

The report goes on to stress that the United States will not underestimate Iraq's rapprochement with Washington's main adversary in the region, which could put Baghdad in a very difficult position in seeking to balance the pressure of increasing US sanctions on Iran and maintaining its relationship with one of the largest countries from which food is imported And other manufactured goods.

However, renewing the Algiers agreement may also cause problems for Iraq and its other neighbor in the Persian Gulf. Baghdad's willingness to agree with Tehran on its maritime borders would raise concerns in Kuwait and other Gulf states hostile to Iran.

The Stratfor Center concludes in its report that the renewal of the work of the Convention reflects the readiness of Iraq to relinquish politically to Iran on one of the controversial issues for purely economic benefit, and Iran's ability to put pressure on Iraq, which depends on economically and security.

The US Center concludes that as a result of all this, Iraq will find that its "emerging" relationship with its "controversial neighbor" may come at the expense of its already complex and difficult political situation with its neighbors in the region and its Western allies.