By Julie VandalPosted on 12-02-2019Modified on 12-02-2019 at 17:29
Economy, fight against corruption, security were the main themes of the campaign of Muhammadu Buhari in 2015. The three axes also of his presidential term. Four years after the first democratic transition in Nigeria's history, the outgoing head of state's record is not rosy.
This is the story of a disenchantment. It begins in 2015. After sixteen years of exclusive power of the People's Democratic Party (PDP), a coalition of three opposition parties - the All Progessive Congress (APC) - emerges and praises a Northern candidate, long-awaited after the Umaru Yar'Adua's death in power in 2010. And what does it matter if the former general is old and austere, he is, without a doubt, this man who will put the country in the right way. Nigerians are dreaming.
"The incorruptible" putschist who knew how to impose strong measures between 1983 and 1985 will put an end to the evil which gangrene the oil giant for very long years. Clientelism will disappear, bringing with it the end of the support of political sponsors. In the most daring dreams, the military will also defeat the insurgency of Islamists Boko Haram, while a "green revolution" already guarantees 190 million people an exit from oil dependence. The providential man did not skimp on the promises. But at the time of the balance sheet: the report is bitter.
An economy at half-mast
According to the World Poverty Clock, Nigeria is now the country in the world with the largest number of people living in extreme poverty (87 million), ahead of India. It must be said that the former general did not benefit from a favorable situation. Shortly after his election, the price of the barrel falls. In a country where black gold accounts for 70% of state revenues and 90% of foreign exchange earnings, the consequences are considerable.
By 2016, Nigeria is plunging into the biggest economic recession of the past 25 years. Despite an upward recovery of the curve in 2017, the growth of the West African giant remains fragile. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), it stands at 1.9% for 2018, far from the double-digit growth fantasy at the beginning of the decade.
" The diversification of the economy promised by candidate Buhari in 2015 did not take place, " says Benjamin Augé, associate researcher at the French Institute of International Relations (IFRI). " Efforts have been made on the mining issue and apart from some changes in agriculture - which had already begun under Goodluck Jonathan - Nigeria's budget is almost always entirely dependent on oil revenues. "
Direct impact: long delays in paying civil servants' salaries and tax increases in some states. The slowdown in exports led to a severe shortage of foreign exchange, which favored inflation. As for unemployment, it soared: 23.1% in the third quarter of 2018, according to data published last December by the NBS. That's five points more than a year ago at the same time.
A fight against corruption in half-tone
The other big promise of candidate Buhari in 2015 was the fight against corruption. But again, the record is not famous. According to the index established by Transparency International, Nigeria is ranked 144 out of 180 countries in 2018. " The perception of corruption has not recorded any progress or improvement in the public administration in 2018, " writes the NGO in his last report. No offense to the authorities, the indictment of important personalities for embezzlement is akin to a succession of announcements effects. Certainly, Ibrahim Magu, the very combative boss of the government anti-corruption agency, the Commission on Economic and Financial Crimes (EFCC), has found millions of euros welcome in the coffers of the state in times of crisis. And while he can also claim the arrest of several bigwigs, virtually no criminal conviction has been pronounced. Only leading figure to have been brought to justice: Bukola Saraki, the Senate Speaker who was finally cleared last July of accusations of misrepresentation of assets.
" Without justice reform, the fight against corruption remains incomplete, " says Benjamin Augé. " There can be investigations and arrests, but as long as no one is afraid to go to jail it does not bring about a virtuous circle and corruption continues. Worse: the EFCC has essentially revealed the scandals involving the previous administration, that of former President Goodluck Jonathan (2010-2015). Ngozi Olejeme, the finance officer for her campaign in 2015, was arrested. The former oil minister, Diezani Alison-Madueke, was also arrested in London in October 2015. Accused of "money laundering", the former first lady, Patience Jonathan, saw four of her accounts frozen for amount equivalent to 13.9 million euros. " Muhammadu Buhari did not lead the fight against corruption properly," said Eze Onyekpere, director of the Center for Social Justice (CSJ), a Nigerian NGO. " He turned an extremely popular national issue into a personal vendetta, a real machine to chase political opponents. It is sufficient to join the ranks of his party PCA to be absolved of any suspicion of corruption. "
Last episode of this "witch hunt": the trial of the president of the Supreme Court. At the end of January, Judge Walter Onnoghen - very critical of power - was accused of not reporting multiple accounts in euros, pounds and dollars. Absent at the hearings of his trial before the Code of Conduct Tribunal (CCT), the highest magistrate in the country, who can act as a last resort to judge possible electoral disputes, was finally suspended by the outgoing head of state and replaced by a northern man like him. " An unconstitutional maneuver ", according to jurists. An " act worthy of a dictatorship ", for the opposition, on the eve of the poll.
Failure of national security
Shortly after his election in April 2015, Muhammadu Buhari set December as the deadline to get rid of Boko Haram. Promise held: Two days before Christmas, his information minister, Lai Mohammed, told the press that he could say " with confidence " that " the war against Boko Haram was largely won ." Words that the Buhari administration has never stopped pounding. Going so far as to say that they have defeated the Islamists. In fact, " the war against the group has never been won and Boko Haram has not disappeared, " notes Laurent Fourchard, a researcher at Céri-Sciences Po, " even if the level of violence has dropped significantly: we are from 4 to 5,000 deaths / year in 2015 to 400/500 deaths / year. "
From the beginning of Buhari's mandate, the repeated offensives of the Nigerian army have led to the resumption of several localities in the hands of insurgents in the state of Borno, such as Baga, Bama, Gamboru Ngala, etc. " Unfortunately, from the moment the military take over an area, they do not take it long, " decrypts Benjamin Augé. " There is end to end, a problem of military strategy and financial means allocated to the army (...) It must be added a serious problem of competence and willingness of the State which is slow to resettle in the reconquered areas resulting in the return of the Boko Haram fighters. "
Although the group no longer controls territory, it still has operational bases in the rural areas of the North-East and around Lake Chad. This is where the Islamic State Group in West Africa (ISWAP), the Boko Haram branch headed by Abu Musab al-Barnaoui, the son of the founder of the sect, Mohamed Yusuf , will be installed. Unlike the Abubakar Shekau faction, the 25-year-old jihadist seeks to win the support of the people by targeting only the military.
Baga, Zari, Jilli, attacks have intensified since July 2018 in the states of Borno and Yobe. Barracks attacks or checkpoints: the human and material toll is heavy for the Nigerian army. The insurgents, they reinforce their arsenal and make resurgent the specter of a return to the dark years. A big pebble in the boot of the former general. Especially since today, insecurity is no longer localized. " There is an expansion of violence in other areas, " decrypts Eze Onyekpere. " We have reached a level of violence between pastoralists and farmers unprecedented in the Middle Belt, not to mention gangs and other bandits who are now swarming on the axis Katsina-Zamfara. The situation seems relatively uncontrollable , the lawyer complains. It's an obvious failure. Buhari did not do better than his predecessors. "
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