A Turkish writer said the establishment of a "state" - controlled by the Kurdish People's Protection Units in north-eastern Syria - was a security nightmare for Ankara and its foreign policy.

"If the Turks are alarmed by the existence of this state, or whether there is reason to worry," Yusuf Erim, a journalist with the Turkish Broadcasting Corporation (TRT), said in an article on the Middle East Internet site.

Political vacuum
In the view of Erim, the political vacuum usually creates ideal conditions for the growth and prosperity of non-state actors. Perhaps the prevailing conditions in Syria today recall what happened in northern Iraq in the late nineties and the beginning of the century when the autonomy of the Kurdistan region was recognized in 2005.

One can compare the no-fly zone in northern Iraq in 1991 - which established the presence of Kurdish Peshmerga forces in the region - and the agreed-upon conflict prevention line on the Euphrates River in northeastern Syria, which gave people's protection units an opportunity to travel.

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Political vacuum creates conditions for the prosperity of non-dependent actors. Syria's prevailing conditions may be reminiscent of what happened in northern Iraq in the late 1990s and early this century when it recognized autonomy for the Kurdistan region in 2005
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The writer pointed out that both Peshmerga and Kurdish protection units received training and armament from the United States to be agents in the war against Iraqi President Saddam Hussein and then the organization of the Islamic state.

The Kurds of Iraq were able to achieve self-rule through diplomatic channels without provoking a strong reaction from Turkey to disengage themselves from the PKK, but became important trading partners for Ankara.

But the people's protection units - which many US officials recognize as the Syrian branch of the PKK - still have the same ideology as its founder Abdullah Ocalan.

Impasse
The writer recalls that the United States and Turkey - both NATO members - reached an agreement earlier this year on a roadmap to address Ankara's security concerns about the presence of the people's protection units in the Syrian city of Manbeg west of the Euphrates River.

That accord gave Turkey a diplomatic solution to its problems, which could be applied to the east of the river as well as to prevent any military action.

However, the repeated postponement of US-Turkish patrols as agreed upon - along with the continued presence of the Manipeg People's Protection Units and the frequent reports that Washington has begun to set up monitoring posts on the Turkish-Syrian border - have led many officials of the Ankara government to believe that the road map leads to "Dead end".

Another reason Turkey delayed its military operation in northeastern Syria is that the people's protection units - a key component of Syria's democratic forces - are engaged in fighting against state organization and Ankara does not want to disrupt the US-led coalition's efforts in the war.

Now that hope for successful US-Turkish cooperation in Manbeg has dwindled, and after US President Donald Trump announced the defeat of state regulation, Ankara sees the time to address its most pressing security concerns.

Worst scenario
In the opinion of the author of the article, Washington will find itself forced to make a difficult decision in the event of a clash between its ally in NATO (Turkey) and its partner in the International Alliance in Syria (units to protect the Kurdish people).

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When it comes to Turkey's national security, Ankara considers preventing the Workers' Party and its affiliates from establishing strongholds along its border a red line
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"Will Trump stand with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and allow the Turks to neutralize the elements they see as a threat to their security, or protect the people's protection forces and create a big obstacle to Turkey, which could lead to a rift in bilateral relations?

The US presence in the region poses further complications for Turkey. With about 2,000 US troops and about 20 military bases there, any major military operation would be a forerunner of a military confrontation between US and Turkish forces, the worst scenario that countries want to avoid at all costs.

But when it comes to Turkey's national security, Ankara considers preventing the Workers' Party and its affiliates from establishing their strongholds on its border a red line.

The writer concluded by saying that the ball is now in the US President's Stadium, noting that Washington's response to Ankara may not only shape the future of US-Turkish relations, but may also limit the shape of the borders and demographics of the region for decades to come.