One day after Juan Guiadó was sworn in as transitional president, Venezuelan Defense Minister Vladimir Padrino stepped in front of the cameras. A person who raises his hand and proclaims himself president, Padrino said in reference to Gauidó, threatened the rule of law and peace in the country. He spoke of a coup d'etat directed against democracy and the constitution and "Nicolás Maduro, the legitimate president of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela".

A statement, two crucial points for the political future of Venezuela. First, the question of legitimacy. Here Guiadó can claim for itself: As President of the National Assembly, he stands before the only remaining democratically legitimated institution in the country. However, his constitutional right to presidency is not as clear as some of his supporters claim. In addition, the United States and several Latin American states have recognized Guaidó as interim president - even if China, Russia and other states cling to Maduro.

The merger of politics and military

The second crucial aspect of the statement is the person of the speaker - and a question. Whose side is the military on? Padrino's declaration of loyalty, framed by other high-ranking military officials, shows: The leaders of the armed forces continue - at least according to outward signs - to Maduro.

MIRAFLORES PRESS / HANDOUT / EPA-EFE / REX

Venezuelan soldiers

Most recently, Maduro and Padrino demonstrated demonstratively together with soldiers in a military exercise.

That the authoritarian head of state seems to be further supported by the military spikes is to be understood against the background of the development of the Venezuelan armed forces in the past 20 years. In 1999 Maduro's predecessor and political idol, Hugo Chávez, proclaimed the Bolivarian revolution in the country and began to shape his "21st century socialism". For this political project, the ex-soldier Chávez also harnessed the armed forces.

He ideologically trained members of the armed forces, promoted loyalists and distant opponents. Cabinet posts were also given to military as positions in the state-owned oil company PDSVA. Under Maduro, this development continued. Even today, some of the regime's key representatives - such as Diosdado Cabello, chairman of Maduro's faithful constituent assembly, or even Defense Minister Padrino - are military personnel.

A consequence of this merger of politics and military: Several officers are involved in crime, such as drug trafficking and smuggling. Experts therefore consider a guarantee of immunity or reduction of cuts indispensable if generals are to be persuaded to change sides.

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Hugo Chávez (2005)

Guaidó had promised such a leave of absence weeks ago. The National Assembly is working on an amnesty law that protects the military when they participate in the restoration of the democratic order. So far, this has hardly been convincing: Even the opposition-oriented blog "Caracas Chronicles" criticized the draft as too lackluster.

Although Venezuela's military attaché in Washington, Colonel José Luis Silva, recently admitted to Guaidó. But whether his offer of amnesty will be enough to persuade generals to rebellion will have to be proved. So far at least, if Guaidó has made progress in trying to win the military leadership, they are barely visible.

The lower ranks covet

The situation in the lower ranks, however, is a different one. Simple soldiers can not enjoy the privileges of the Chavista elite. They and their families, like the rest of the population, suffer from a supply crisis and hyperinflation.

Here the dissatisfaction grows. Two days before Guiadó was sworn in as transitional president, members of the National Guard rebelled in a barracks in Caracas. The uprising was quickly suppressed.

Then there are the renegades abroad: more than three million Venezuelans have fled the country in recent years before the economic crisis - including many soldiers. In the case of a return to Venezuela they face severe punishment. In neighboring countries, many of them are in contact with each other as well as former comrades in Venezuela.

The troops in the barracks are split, says a renegade Venezuelan lieutenant colonel to SPIEGEL. Maduro has lost much support. For the soldiers in the country who are against him, it is because of the spying by the security services but difficult to coordinate with each other. The soldier fled claims to be from Venezuela two years ago. Today he lives in Colombia.

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Juan Guaido

Other defectors abroad recently called in video messages to the armed uprising. Two of them recently went public with a concrete call. Former soldiers Carlos Guillen Martinez and Josue Hidalgo Azuaje called on the US, Brazil, Colombia, Peru and "all the brothers" to support them with weapons.

They did not want any intervention from abroad, the two told the US channel CNN. If there was an intervention, it would have to be worn by Venezuelan soldiers. There are many groups ready to challenge Maduro. These should now be united.

US support and right-wing governments in Brazil and Colombia, however, are problematic for Maduro's opponents. The regime is trying to portray Guaidó as Washington's puppet. Discussions about arming Venezuelan defectors by the US would strengthen this version. In the country, given the history of US intervention in Latin America, there are not unjustified reservations about even greater external influence. Maduro will use that for himself.