Only the battle for eastern Ghuta, then the relentless offensive in the southern province of Daraa - also in 2018 is a deadly year for Syria. Moreover, according to the UN World Food Program, it is the worst year in the recent history of civil war in terms of caring for people.

The reason is not only the ongoing fighting and the infrastructure destroyed by it, but also a persistent drought. As a result, the wheat production this year turned out to be as bad as 1989 was no more. Before the war, the government in Damascus exported up to 1.5 million tons of wheat annually, meanwhile the same amount has to be imported.

Now that the winter is approaching, it is a bad news for many civilians - especially for the approximately three million Syrians in Idlib in the northwest of the country, almost half of whom are displaced.

Idlib: The deadline expires

By late summer, it had long looked like the Assad regime, backed by Russia and Iran, was preparing for the offensive on the last rebel region. International aid organizations warned of a new humanitarian disaster.

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But then Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan agreed on a deal. The people of Idlib have been hoping for a peaceful solution ever since.

The deal, which was announced on 17 September in Sochi, provides that a large part of Idlib remains under the control of the insurgents. Along the existing front line, a 15 to 20 kilometer broader demilitarized corridor will be set up by Monday, separating the conflicting parties.

So far, it looks like this agreement is actually being implemented. On Wednesday, Turkey has already announced the withdrawal of all heavy weapons from the agreed buffer zone around Idlib.

Russia's Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also expressed his satisfaction: some of the anti-Assad militias have already withdrawn from the area. Incidentally, you do not want to be too critical when it comes to meeting the schedule. It was not important that all fighters were actually deducted until Monday. It is crucial to demonstrate the fundamental will to comply with the deal. That's exactly what's open again.

The most influential rebel alliance in Idlib, the jihadist alliance Hajat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), does not seem to want to implement Turkey's agreement. "We have not given up our decision on jihad and the struggle to implement our blessed revolution," HTS said Sunday evening a few hours before the deadline.

Assad announces amnesty

Assad, meanwhile, remains firmly committed to reconquering Idlib. But the Syrian army is squandered after seven years of war. The most recent sign of this is the amnesty for deserters, which the president announced this week. Any deserter who faces himself in the next four to six months should remain unpunished. At the same time, however, he must expect to be drafted immediately for military service.

Without active Russian help, Assad Idlib can not recapture. Therefore, the fate of the province remains in Putin's hands.

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Idlib: The deadline expires

But the Kremlin is indirectly getting more and more involved in another conflict that is at least as dangerous in the Syrian multi-front war - the Israeli-Iranian shadow war. The Tehran government is using the presence of its own military advisers, its loyal Lebanese Hezbollah, and other Shiite militias to attack archenemy Israel out of Syria.

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Iran's Road to Israel - the "Shiite Crescent"

The Israeli army has been bombarding Iranian arms transports and bases in the civil war country for years - and also attacks Syrian positions deep in the hinterland, which are used by Iranian Revolutionary Guards. 800 air and artillery strikes against 200 targets were the only one and a half years in the past.

Putin and Netanyahu want to meet again

In September, one of these attacks resulted in a momentous incident: Syria's outdated air defense had attempted to shoot down four Israeli F-16 fighter jets with the obsolete S-200 air defense system - and hit a Russian Iljuschin Il-20 aircraft.

15 Russian soldiers died in the crash. As a result, the Kremlin equipped the Syrian regime with the modern S-300 air defense system, which can intercept attacks from a distance of 250 kilometers. This has consequences:

  • Russia continues to bind Assad to itself. The dictator will not get the S-300 package for free, but will have to pay for it. Maybe with the assignment of economic contracts in the reconstruction of the country.
  • At the same time, Moscow makes it clear to Jerusalem that the Israeli army will no longer have the sole air sovereignty over Syria - unless it does not rely on the F16 fighter jet, but increasingly on the new $ 100 million F35 aircraft for air defense is invisible. However, Israel has far fewer machines.

Israel is annoyed by this move - but should continue to operate as before and operate in Syrian airspace. Also because the Israeli army knows the capabilities and gaps of the S300 system that Syria has received from joint military maneuvers with the NATO countries Greece and Cyprus, which are also equipped with it.

Whether in the idlib conflict or in the power struggle between Israel and Iran: Moscow is involved everywhere, but does not want to risk a total escalation on any front. It fits into the picture that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced a few days ago that he had phoned Putin and that there would soon be a meeting of the two again. Without the Russian leader, there is little going on in Syria.