Idlib and the buffer zone .. Where meets Putin and Erdogan?

Zaher al-Baik-Ankara

After a year of record meetings, the Russian and Turkish presidents held important talks in Moscow on Wednesday in the first meeting between the two presidents in 2019, the first after the US withdrawal.

As expected, the meeting was crowded with important issues: Idlib, the US withdrawal from the Syrian north and the establishment of a buffer zone. Turkey has its stated objectives in northern Syria, what scenarios are available to achieve them? Can Idlib be against the buffer zone?

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan told a joint news conference with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin after their meeting in Moscow that "there are no problems with Russia over the safe area in northern Syria."

Erdogan said that he discussed with Putin the developments in the field in the province of Idlib, pointing to the existence of close cooperation between Turkey and Russia in this regard, and said "our joint struggle against the terrorist organizations in Idlib will continue."

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that his country agrees with Turkey on the fight against all terrorist organizations in Syria, stressing the need to reach a lasting solution to the crisis through political and diplomatic methods. He said that he discussed with his Turkish counterpart ways to achieve stability in Idlib.

Idleb and the buffer zone

Because the press conferences do not reflect what is happening behind the closed doors completely, and do not give explanations behind the statements; interviewed Al Jazeera Net Turkish journalist close to the government Hamza Tekin, who said, "was agreed between Erdogan and Putin to install the Idleb agreement, without giving up Turkey The province or parts of it for the benefit of the Syrian regime in exchange for Russia to turn away from the buffer zone, "noting that Erdogan and Putin originally agreed on everything related to the safe area in isolation from the situation in Idlib.

Tekin said that Erdogan's visit to Moscow on Wednesday was a successful visit at all levels with regard to the bilateral relations between Turkey and Russia, as well as the most important file, the Syrian file.

Asked about the significance of Russian statements about "the necessity of the entry of the Syrian regime forces into areas north of Syria," Tekin replied, "What are just media bubbles that satisfy the instincts of the regime is nothing else. Turkey does not accept any force in the Syrian north, One of these forces is also the organization of Kurdish people's units. "

The Turkish writer pointed out that the Turkish-Russian coordination on Syria will continue with strong momentum, and Turkey will continue to negotiate here and there, and with all major powers for the benefit of the Syrian people on the one hand, and the interest of national security on the other.

In this context, the Russian diplomat Vyacheslav Matzov told the Turkish channel "TRT" Moscow understands the security needs of Turkey in northern Syria, and is opposed to the establishment of any separatist entity could be formed by armed organizations, adding that "Moscow is keen not to strengthen the existing organizations in the east Euphrates after the American withdrawal. "

On the other hand, the safe area is not in the interest of Moscow in the long term; it strengthens the presence of the opposition, and limits the chances of expanding the control of the regime forces, especially that the Russian diplomat said that there are talks between the organization of the Kurdish people units and the Syrian regime in Damascus is currently being reconciled, Means the return of the regime's forces to areas controlled by the organization, in anticipation of any implementation on the ground for the safe area.

However, Mr Mazov believes that Erdogan's visit was successful, and the two presidents will be able to overcome any subsequent innovations.

Scenarios

For his part, the director of the Omran Center for Strategic Studies, Ammar Qahf ruled out the island of Netl that the deal Idleb against the buffer zone in northern Syria is currently, as a reference to the large number of players and saboteurs in that the exams of the two regions are related to different actions and to obtain requires a tripartite agreement: America, Turkey and Russia, Its signs are now clear by the US military withdrawal and its lack of interest in the west of the river.

"The scenario of Idlib's return to the regime is full of obstacles. The Turkish is only one of them," he said. "If the return is part of the military options, it will be very complicated. It will bring back the momentum of Russian military operations and the possibility of activating the Iranian militias. About the great waves of displacement. "

Do you believe that the units of the regime are capable of controlling them and not using them in extortion operations that undermine regional security again, especially after fighting the fifth episode with the fourth division, Iranian-made? "

However, if the scenario is understandings about the implementation of the road and crossings section, it is, according to Qafis, linked to the extent of the interaction between the so-called "rescue government" and the Sham Liberation Organization, which is completely controlled by the region.

As for the plan of the buffer zone in northern Syria, the director of the Amran Center said that the US approval is the guarantor of any obstruction to its implementation. "He pointed out that Turkey will seek Moscow's approval in order to strengthen and legitimize it and not to ensure it.

"The security understanding with the United States, the political consensus with the Russians, and the imposition of an administrative plan for the region will nullify the Kurdish Democratic Union Party and its security and military effectiveness by redefining the administrative formulas at the administrative level," he said. Security and ensure broad roles for the national army and the Syrian Peshmerga. " Explaining that the realization of the scenario will be carried out in accordance with the policy step by step, if completed Manbj will be a bridge for a broader understanding.