Flight of the hawk: why the adviser to the president of the USA John Bolton goes to the countries of Transcaucasia and Russia

On October 20, the Transcaucasian tour of US National Security Advisor John Bolton will begin: he will visit Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia. The trip will not be limited to the countries of Transcaucasia: Bolton will spend two days - October 22 and 23 - in Russia.

"On October 20, I will go on visits to Russia, Azerbaijan, Armenia and Georgia to meet with my colleagues and other high-ranking officials to advance American interests on a variety of security issues," wrote John Bolton earlier in his Twitter account.

In the United States of America

In an interview with journalist Hugh Hewitt Bolton spoke about the goals of his tour. According to the adviser to the President of the United States, his main task is to assess the role that Transcaucasian countries play in relations with Moscow, Tehran and Ankara.

“Now the interest in the region is connected, among other things, with the rather complicated relations that have developed between the USA and Turkey,” said Vladimir Novikov, senior researcher at the Institute for Social and Political Studies of the Black Sea-Caspian Region, in an interview with RT. - In fact, Erdogan is in confrontation with Washington and is a problem for Trump. So now the United States is looking at who else can you rely on in the region. Also, the countries of the South Caucasus are interested in Washington as a kind of buffer zone between Russia and the Middle East. ”

However, even more attention during the trip will be paid to Iranian issues, experts say.

Recall that in May of this year, Donald Trump carried out his long-standing threat by announcing the US withdrawal from the FACU - a deal on the Iranian nuclear program concluded in 2015 between Tehran and the five permanent members of the UN Security Council - Russia, France, the United States, Great Britain and China, as well as Germany. Under the terms of the agreement, Iran abandoned its own program to develop nuclear weapons in exchange for the abolition of economic sanctions. Barack Obama considered this deal a major diplomatic victory for his administration, but the successor Donald Trump adheres to the opposite point of view. In his opinion, the SAPA only allowed Iran to increase its influence in the region.

It should be noted that Bolton’s trip anticipates the visits of US officials responsible for the implementation of anti-Iran sanctions scheduled for November to the countries of the South Caucasus. The Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs George Kent told reporters earlier about the preparation of these talks. Representatives of the US administration will tell Armenian, Azerbaijani and Georgian businessmen how they should act against Iran in order not to fall under US sanctions. Tbilisi, Yerevan and Baku should be “extremely careful” when it comes to Iran, said Kent.

According to experts, the topic of confronting Iran will be a red line and through all of the South Caucasus tour of John Bolton.

“Today there is one point from which Washington will make a start, - the Iranian question. It should be recalled that Iran has no air defenses covering the country from the Transcaucasus. In this regard, the Bolton tour can be viewed as a search for Iran's vulnerabilities, ”said Kirill Koktysh, associate professor at the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO, in an interview with RT.

"Take advantage of the situation"

In May of this year, Iran and the EEU signed an agreement on the creation of a free trade zone. However, Armenia negotiated with Tehran on the abolition of customs duties as early as 2016. In the same year, the countries agreed to simplify the visa regime in order to strengthen trade and other ties between Armenia and Iran.

This is not surprising, considering that of the countries participating in the EEU, it is Armenia that has a common border with an Islamic republic. It is through the territory of Armenia that goods can be transferred from Iran to the EEU countries, as well as in the opposite direction.

The prospects for expanding trade turnover between Iran and the EEU, to which Armenia is the key, are not satisfied with Washington, experts say.

According to analysts, Yerevan’s plans to send its specialists to Syria to assist the local population may become another topic of the Bolton talks and the Armenian leadership. It is assumed that the mission will be carried out jointly with the Russian side.

Earlier, Armenia had already sent humanitarian aid to Syria: in July of this year, the country handed over 100 tons of food and necessities to the residents of the UAR.

It is not excluded that John Bolton will try to dissuade Yerevan from participation in the Syrian campaign on the side of Moscow and Damascus, experts say.

The topic of discussion may be the internal political agenda: the visit of the adviser to Trump coincided with the pre-election period in the republic. Recall that on October 16, Prime Minister Nikolay Pashinyan resigned to make early parliamentary elections possible.

• Nikol Pashinyan
• © Christophe Ena / Pool via REUTERS

Experts have no doubt that Washington will not miss the opportunity to influence the political processes in the region. As the official representative of the Russian Foreign Ministry Maria Zakharova noted earlier, the American side does not hide its efforts to interfere in the internal affairs of Armenia. Thus, the diplomat commented on the speech of the US ambassador to Armenia, Richard Mills, in which he said that the US "made a contribution" to changes in Armenian politics, supporting "groups of people and government officials."

“It is possible that, planning his visit, Bolton intended to take advantage of the situation in the country. During the period of preparation for the elections, all politicians become more vulnerable, in this context the timing of the visit is quite logical. Another thing is that Armenia itself is hardly interested in the United States - only as a neighbor of Iran and an ally of Russia, ”Kirill Koktysh explained in an interview with RT.

"Substantial Question"

John Bolton will arrive in Azerbaijan on October 24 after a trip to Moscow. This was reported earlier by RIA Novosti news agency referring to sources in diplomatic circles.

According to experts, the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict can be one of the topics of negotiations with the Azerbaijani leadership. Baku has long hoped to attract Washington to its side on the issue of a territorial dispute.

In particular, congratulating Donald Trump this year on US Independence Day, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev expressed the hope that the personal efforts of the American leader would help solve the Karabakh conflict "within the framework of territorial integrity". However, Washington is not in a hurry to occupy only one of the parties in this confrontation, developing ties with both Baku and Yerevan.

Of greater interest to the US administration may be the energy projects of Azerbaijan. First of all, we are talking about the Southern Gas Corridor and the TANAP gas pipeline, the first section of which was launched in the summer. The pipeline, which plans to supply gas from the Azerbaijani Shah Deniz field to Europe, passes through the territory of Georgia and Turkey. One more branch of the UGK - the Trans-Adriatic Pipeline (TAP) - is scheduled to start in 2020, its route passes through Greece, Albania and Italy. Washington supports this construction, contrasting SGC with Russian gas projects in Europe. However, Baku’s plans to involve Iran in filling TANAP’s capacity are unlikely to suit the United States, experts say.

• Opening ceremony of the Turkish section of the TANAP gas pipeline
• globallookpress.com
• © Mustafa Kaya / Xinhua

“Gas supplies are a significant issue for the United States, as we are talking about, among other things, the energy strategy of Washington,” Cyril Koktysh said in an interview with RT.

However, cooperation between Iran and Azerbaijan is not limited to the energy sector, the countries are negotiating military cooperation and actively developing trade relations. Also, the US can irritate the plans of Iran, Azerbaijan and Russia to create a single energy corridor. As stated earlier in Baku, the project is a priority for the Azerbaijani side.

As is the case with Armenia, the United States is interested in Azerbaijan’s ties with Iran, Novikov said. The White House will undoubtedly make an effort to destroy them.

“It is difficult to say how successful these attempts will be. For example, for Armenia, Iran is a small, but a window into the world. For Azerbaijan, Iran is also a very significant partner in the region, ”the expert added.

“Calculated step”

John Bolton can count on a warm reception in Tbilisi: over the past decades, Georgia has been striving for NATO membership, considering military cooperation with Washington and NATO as a counterweight to the “Russian aggression”.

Intensive cooperation between Tbilisi and NATO began after the 2004 Rose Revolution. However, the list of measures aimed at Georgia’s accession to the North Atlantic Alliance was adopted only in 2014 at the summit in Wales. As part of this cooperation, NATO exercises regularly take place on Georgian territory. At the same time, the exact dates of the country's entry into the military bloc are not called.

Commenting on the upcoming visit of John Bolton, Georgian Foreign Minister David Zalkalian said that one of the topics of the talks would be to deepen the US presence in the region. The parties will also discuss prospects for strengthening Georgia’s defense capability and the possibilities of duty-free US-Georgian trade.

In early October, Georgian Prime Minister Mamuka Bakhtadze paid a visit to the United States. Commenting on the trip, he said that relations between the two countries are at an unprecedented high level.

According to experts, public manifestations of loyalty on the part of the White House can be an argument for the political forces ruling in Georgia at the height of the presidential campaign. Elections will be held on October 28th.

“In Georgia, there is only a week left before the elections, and the fact that Trump’s advisor chose this time for the visit is not a coincidence, but a completely calculated step,” Koktysh said. - Bolton's arrival in Tbilisi a week before the election could be a gift for the ruling party. Another thing is that it will have to make some concessions. ”

For example, Bolton may require Tbilisi to cut cooperation with Iran. Now the countries are growing mutual trade. In addition, Tehran and Tbilisi are working on the development of regional infrastructure, last year the parties signed an agreement on the construction of a transport corridor in the direction of the Persian Gulf, and also agreed on cooperation in the energy sector.

On the whole, the White House’s administration is only to develop its own tactics with respect to the countries of the Transcaucasus, experts note.

“The Trump administration has not yet formulated its own approach to Transcaucasia. It is for this purpose that Bolton is going to the region now, his task is to find here the ways of realizing American interests, ”Koktysh is sure.

“Not to offer, but to demand”

Experts believe that during the tour the most informative will be John Bolton's trip to Moscow. According to Novikov, at this stage Bolton's visit to the countries of the Transcaucasus will be of a more familiarity nature.

“Washington has goals, but so far the White House just wants to understand what is happening in the region. A visit to Moscow promises to be meaningful, ”the expert explained.

The visit to Russia will last two days - October 22 and 23. During this time, Bolton will hold talks with Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov. The assistant to the president of Russia Yury Ushakov told about this to journalists earlier.

Recall that the previous meeting of John Bolton and Nikolai Patrushev took place in late August in Geneva. Then the negotiations ended without signing a joint final statement, contrary to the initial plans of the parties. As the Secretary of the RF Security Council explained to the journalists then, the reason was the discrepancy on the issue of “interference” with the elections.

“Because the Americans wanted it to be that we interfered in their elections, in their opinion, and we deny it,” Patrushev then explained.

The Russian side insisted on introducing into the document a provision on the inadmissibility of Washington’s interference in the internal affairs of sovereign states, which provoked a protest from the American delegation.

According to Bolton himself, the reasons for his current visit to Moscow are plans to continue the negotiation process, which had been started earlier in Helsinki by Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump.

The representative of the White House expects to discuss the possibility of progress in Russian-American relations. However, this will not prevent him from again touching on the subject of alleged “Russian interference” in the electoral processes in the United States: Bolton explained that he raised this topic during all negotiations with the Russian side.

Experts call for no illusions about the upcoming talks.

“We need to clearly understand who John Bolton is, this is a hawk. And, most likely, all his contacts will flow in line with the anti-Russian rhetoric, ”political analyst Alexander Asafov explained in an interview with RT.

According to the expert, despite this, the White House considers it important to maintain contacts with Moscow.

“I think that the meeting between Bolton and Patrushev, which is very likely to be closed, will be the most substantive one. As for Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan, Bolton is unlikely to offer something to them - this is not his style. That was how Joe Biden acted, for example, but Bolton usually prefers not to offer, but to demand, ”Asafov concluded.