EU summit on Brexit: May gets warm words - and nothing else

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At the EU summit in Brussels, EU diplomats are wrestling for the crucial paragraphs of a statement intended to help Theresa May sell the Brexit deal in the UK.

But despite all helpfulness, it is impossible in Brussels to change the withdrawal agreement itself again. "It's like Mikado," said an EU official at the meeting with the ambassadors on Wednesday, "If you pull out a stick, everything threatens to collapse." Federal Foreign Minister Heiko Maas became even clearer in the Bundestag on Thursday morning: "There is no basis for re-shaping this agreement."

Now, it's about reassuring May that the emergency solution for the Irish border is not being used. The so-called backstop would keep Northern Ireland in the EU single market and in the Customs Union in order to avoid a new hard border with Ireland. The UK Government fears that Northern Ireland could in fact be separated from the United Kingdom. She therefore wishes a legally binding commitment that the backstop is limited in time.

But the rest of the EU does not want to play along. This has repeatedly emphasized several EU politicians in recent days, and it is also in a draft Summit statement, which could see the SPIEGEL - even if the exact wording is still controversial.

"Then the backstop would be forever relevant"

For example, it states that the backstop should "only be used for a short duration and only as long as absolutely necessary". Even the word "necessarily" bothers some of the 27 other EU states: they think that May is too accommodating.

Also, some would like to write in the text that the backstop is not "short", but "as short as possible" should apply. The background: The emergency solution should end only when there is a successor agreement - and not before. It should not be some free trade agreement, according to some countries, but one that actually ensures that there is no new hard border on the Irish island. If such an agreement does not succeed, then "the backstop would be eternally relevant," it says German government circles. But this sentence should cause naked horror among British Brexit hardliners.

Graphic for the Brexit Deal

The state of the negotiationsHow's Brexit Poker

Another problem with the British demand for legally binding commitments is that such a document would prejudge the negotiations on the future Free Trade Agreement. "You can not fix the outcome before negotiations begin," says a senior EU diplomat. In addition, such a document would probably have to be approved by the parliaments in all EU states - which is impossible for reasons of time.

Particularly controversial is paragraph 5 of the proposed Summit Declaration. It reads: "The Union is ready to consider whether further assurances can be given." Although it is also there that such assurances "should not change the exit agreement and it should not contradict". But for many, this passage goes too far. The last thing EU diplomats want is for May to return to Brussels in January, demand a special summit and demand further concessions. It is, one hears everywhere, that the British have already come a long way. May has agreed to everything, now she has to see if she gets the deal sold in London or not.

May staged a tough fight

The Prime Minister will present her point of view on Thursday at the summit dinner. Afterwards, the 27 remaining EU countries will meet without May to tighten the conclusions. It may be late, say diplomats. There will not be a struggle between May and the rest of the EU at the summit. May is not involved in the formulation of the Brexit parts of the final declaration.

The more it depends on the Briton, at least to convey the impression of a hard struggle for further accommodation. Their spokespersons said that four-way talks were planned with Ireland's Prime Minister Leo Varadkar, EU Council President Donald Tusk and Luxembourg's PM Xavier Bettel. Whether May holds a press conference at the end, however, was initially open. That should also depend on the wording of the Summit Declaration.

However, this is - as is already clear - nothing is included, which could trigger a dramatic change in sentiment in the British Parliament. But that needs May more than ever, after the vote of confidence on Wednesday 117 MPs voted against her Tory faction against them. That was much more than expected - and the prospect that May will get a majority for the Brexit deal has thus darkened once again.

The danger of a Brexit without agreement has risen again, as Brussels officials warn. They are working hard to prepare for the no-deal scenario, says a diplomat. "We're going full throttle."

Video analysis to vote of no confidence against May: "no liberation"

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REUTERS