United Kingdom and Gibraltar European Union membership referendum

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The 29th of march 2019 was once Brexit day. Yearning moment for all EU opponents in the UK, horror for the Proeuropäer - and hope for those who at least want the whole haunting will eventually come to an end. On that day, exactly two years after the government had applied to quit Brussels, they would leave the European Union. Come what may. With this announcement, Prime Minister Theresa May had traveled across the country for months.

Now, on the 29th of March, the British are still in the EU. What's more, nothing has been clarified, not even the exact timetable for the next few days: Deal, no deal, no Brexit - everything stays on the table. Only one thing is clear on this day: The resignation contract of the government has no further majority. In spite of everything.

Because May basically tried everything. She has offered the critics their resignation. This time, it presented parliamentarians only with the separation agreement with the EU, but not the political declaration on future relations. A trick to appease lower-house spokesman John Bercow, who had announced resistance, should once again bring the deal to the House of Commons in unaltered form.

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And May this time wanted to strike a different tone than before the deputies, a more level-headed, gentler. On Friday afternoon, she stands in the lower house and speaks of responsibility and willingness to compromise, that the politicians should listen to her heart. And the head of the government says: "If you want to deliver Brexit, that's the moment."

Alone: ​​it is not enough again. 286 MPs vote in favor of the government's request, 344 against. It also does not help that many Brexit hardliners gather behind May this time: ex-Foreign Minister Boris Johnson, for example, the ultra-conservative Jacob Rees-Mogg, or former Brexit Minister Dominic Raab. They all shared the fear that in the end there could be no Brexit. Others remain tough: May's government partner, the Northern Irish DUP. Or the Labor Opposition.

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It's a strange maneuver anyway, that May tries - charged to a landmark decision that it is not. The vote is the "last opportunity to guarantee the Brexit," says May. But that is a lot of exaggeration. Even if the application was approved, Brexit would not have made a final decision.

By law, the British had stated: In order to ratify the resignation agreement, Parliament must agree to both parts: the binding separation treaty - and the political declaration. The only thing May could achieve that day was a Brexit postponement until May 22nd. The extension would have been granted by the EU if Parliament had accepted May's contract with Brussels.

And now? The Prime Minister speaks after the vote of "serious" consequences of the decision. Britain will have to leave the EU on April 12th, if there is no alternative. In fact, Brussels dictated that date to the British as a new deadline should they be unable to agree. Until then, EU Council President Donald Tusk said recently, however, all options remain on the table:

  • A withdrawal of the Brexit proposal: It would be the dream of many Proeuropäer, but in Parliament there is so far no majority. Both Tories and Labor are majority committed to the 2016 referendum.
  • An exit without agreement: The EU describes it as a "probable scenario", but the lower house has repeatedly rejected this option - for fear of the catastrophic economic consequences.
  • But one more deal: theoretically it would probably be possible for Theresa May to bring in her agreement again next week. According to media reports, there should be such simulation games in the government. Politically, however, May could hardly convey that. And even if such an endeavor would be successful before April 12, it remains unclear whether Britain will still be able to get out on May 22.
  • A long delay: This variant is increasingly likely. Even though the British may have to vote in the EU elections on 23 May. On April 10, the remaining 27 EU countries would decide on it at a special summit.

One thing is clear: If the British want to spend more time in Brussels, say until the end of 2020, they must also make it clear what they want to achieve. A political change of course would be imaginable: On Monday, the delegates want to continue their trial votes on different Brexit scenarios.

There was no majority in a first attempt on Wednesday, which could change under new circumstances. Chances are best given to calling for a softer Brexit, including membership in the Customs Union. In the end, the government could only remain one thing to break the political deadlock in Westminister: new elections. Concretely, May says nothing about it on Friday. For that, "I'm afraid we're reaching the limits of this procedure in this house."