Brexit: the threat of the "no deal" hovers over the United Kingdom

Thursday night, the Christmas dinner of the European Union resembled what some families sometimes live at this time of the year: behind smiles and good humor, deep disagreements and a risk of permanent rupture. Having met the 27 to try to renegotiate the Brexit agreement, Theresa May first received assurances from several counterparts that she would be helped. To, eventually, come up against a wall.

The British Prime Minister had to try. As it stands, the draft agreement it has negotiated will not be accepted by Parliament. He is so upset that he even tried to overthrow her with a motion of defiance this week. If the unsinkable Theresa May has (yet) pulled, it must nevertheless be reconsolidated politically. Getting a renegotiation of the agreement would already be a good start.

"Decide finally what you want". But the discussions came to a halt. "We can not reopen a legal agreement, we can not renegotiate what has been negotiated for several months," hammered Emmanuel Macron. The head of the Dutch government, Mark Rutte, preferred to give in the metaphor: "the lemon was completely squeezed." If the 27 are so annoyed, it's because Theresa May has not been able to put clear and realistic demands on the table. "Our British friends have to say what they want instead of telling us what we want," said Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, after the meeting. "It's up to the UK to come up with answers in the coming weeks." Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaité was even more tongue-tied on Twitter: "Christmas wish for Brexit: finally decide what you really want and Santa will deliver you."

#Brexit Christmas wish: finally decide what you want and Santa will deliver pic.twitter.com/lJziZsahry

The backstop at the heart of the negotiations. The stumbling point is again and again the "backstop", the "safety net" that will keep Northern Ireland in the single market if no other solution is found by the end transition period. The United Kingdom believes that its integrity is threatened, as it could separate Northern Ireland from the rest of the country. For their part, the 27 were content to repeat that this device was intended only to remain temporary. "There is no other credible fallback option that can take the place of the backstop," said Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar. In the absence of any other way out, the United Kingdom seems to be heading straight for a "no deal", that is, leaving the European Union without any legal agreement.

Political and economic difficulties of the "no deal". The 27 are actively preparing for it. Jean-Claude Juncker warned that, on 19 December, "all the generally useful information concerning the preparation of a 'no deal'" will be published. The "no deal" would pose enormous difficulties for both the European Union and the United Kingdom, since no sensitive issue would be settled. Overnight, thousands of Europeans residing across the Channel, as well as all British living in the European Union, would find themselves without status. Border controls would be reinstated and no economic agreement would be guaranteed between the 27 and their former partner. And if the "backstop" seems a bad solution to many today, the assumption of a return of a border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland stir more fears still. Finally, the United Kingdom would be faced with many internal struggles, including that of Scotland, which voted against the Brexit majority and sees its quest for independence revived.

Economically, the effects of a "no deal" are difficult to evaluate precisely but worry all circles and all sectors. Eurostar stopped, congestion at borders, problems of harmonization of standards on food products, pets such as livestock ... the list of potential consequences is very long.

The option of the second referendum. Theresa May has not been mistaken and has always agitated the threat of "no deal" to convince British MPs to accept his agreement, even backwards. "It's the best possible, the only possible one," she told parliament on November 25. But between this agreement unacceptable to many and a frightening legal void, another path could still emerge: that of a second referendum. Highly unlikely a few weeks ago, this option is brandished by anti-Brexit more and more regularly. It is gaining more and more weight as the United Kingdom sinks into deadlock. "Now the time has come to prepare for Parliament to ensure that it can consider choices, one after another, and opt for one of them or for a referendum" Former Labor Prime Minister Tony Blair wrote Friday. The wording is cautious, not to say convoluted, but then it becomes crystal clear: "If Parliament can not decide, it must rely on the people."