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The time until Britain's exit from the EU is becoming increasingly scarce, in London there is political chaos, a Brexit without agreement is becoming more likely. Ireland would be the hardest hit next to the UK as the new EU external border would run through the island from 29 March. And the government in Dublin is preparing for this case: nothing.
At least that's what Irish Prime Minister Leo Varadkar has made clear when he presented his government's contingency plans for a no-deal Brexit. It lists some 130 pages on how Ireland intends to maintain trade, air traffic or medical supplies in this case. The most explosive problem, however - the return of a hard border with Northern Ireland with checks on goods and persons - is left out.
"We have not made any preparations for a physical infrastructure or anything like that," Varadkar emphasized while presenting the plans. For that, so its reasoning, could become a "self-fulfilling prophecy."
Hope that the agreement somehow comes through Parliament
Instead, Varadkar continues to insist that the UK Parliament approve the exit agreement with the EU in January - even if little is currently hinted at. The "full focus" of his government is on a deal that prevents a hard line, the PM said. Secretary of State Simon Coveney said that, in an emergency, they wanted to acquire land at the ports of Dublin and Rosslare in order to carry out extended border controls there.
AFP
Ireland's Prime Minister Varadkar
The principle of hope ruled not only in Dublin. The UK and EU plans for a no-deal Brexit, which were released this week, are not addressing the Irish border issue. An Irish diplomat speaks out, which apparently applies on both sides of the English Channel: "We do not want to think about a Brexit without an agreement." In Dublin, London has a responsibility to find a solution. British Prime Minister Theresa May has made a firm commitment not to create a new border in Ireland - and she will be taken at her word.
It is true that Brussels and London have agreed on a catch-up solution to ensure that there is no hard limit in Ireland, even if they can not agree on a solution at first. For this purpose, Britain should initially remain largely in the EU Customs Union - which Brexit hardliners in May Tory party sharply criticize. However, this so-called backstop is part of the withdrawal agreement - and if that does not happen, there is no backstop. Ireland would then have to reinstate controls on the border with Northern Ireland under EU law.
Fear on the green border
But that would be difficult, if only because the 500 kilometers long, today invisible border through villages, farms and premises leads and there are estimated to be about 300 major and minor transition points. An attempt to re-control them would, in the view of the Irish Government, have devastating consequences for the Irish economy. In addition, politicians fear in this case, the renewed flare-up of armed unrest in the former civil war country.
However, Varadkar's announcement that he will not prepare border guards will make for pre-Christmas joy among British Brexit hardliners. "No agreement means no hard limit," tweets Jacob Rees-Mogg, one of the leading figures of the conservative Brexiteers. "So you do not need a backstop." "It's that simple," headlined the Daily Express enthusiastically. "Rees-Mogg ends backstop dispute with easy plan!"
But it is not that easy. Because even Varadkar admitted that border controls in the case of a no-deal Brexit would probably be unavoidable, even if you do not prepare now. Although no one wants a hard line, said the head of government. But if the same customs rules were no longer valid on both sides, "one gets into real difficulties".