Between the jaws of pliers .. What options Turkey in the deal "S 400"?

Zaher al-Baik-Ankara

US-Turkish relations have been strained since 2015 because of Ankara's discontent with US support for Kurdish units in Syria and distrust between NATO allies.

Turkey's deal to buy Russian S-400 missiles is currently at the top of the contentious issues between Ankara and Washington, where the United States believes Russia's missile defense system could harm NATO technology, as well as its reservations about Moscow's penetration of the region.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said his country's purchase of the Russian S-400 rocket system had nothing to do with US security, in response to a warning by the Pentagon earlier in the day.

Faced with these mutual threats and conflicting interests, what are Turkey's options if Washington carries out its threat to ban the sale of F-35s and Patriot missiles to Turkey? Is it prepared to sacrifice a sophisticated US weapon system against Russian missiles? Is Ankara prepared to enter into a crisis with NATO in exchange for its rapprochement with the historical adversary Russia?

Limited options
"Turkey has no other choice in the face of America's intransigence over the past years in extending its Patriot system or F-35 aircraft," said Taha Odehoglu, a Turkish media analyst. "So it resorted to buying the Russian S-400 missile system, especially after Washington withdrew its Patriot missile defense system from Ankara With the NATO countries in 2014, at a time when Ankara is in dire need of these missiles. "

Erdogan said that Erdogan, who is preparing for a crucial local election on March 31, will not back down from the Russian deal, noting that if Turkey insists on completing the Russian deal, it risks not receiving the F-35, Stealth fighter produced by the US company "Lockheed Martin", and could face penalties under the Act to address America's opponents.

"The acquisition of the Ankara S400 will divert it from the use of F-16 fighter jets to defend Turkish airspace and will allow it to respond quickly to external threats," Oglu said of Turkish military officials.

He added that thanks to the "S 400" Ankara will not have to take off the fighters and directed to a long distance to face the danger from the outside, and thus have provided the cost of flying, as well as the failure to integrate the Russian system in the network of NATO will reduce the ability to monitor as it will work alone Without the use of NATO radars. "

According to the Turkish government's media, Ankara's challenge to complete the Russian deal and not to bow to US threats means increased opportunities for US economic sanctions against Ankara.

"But Erdogan is well aware that moving away from the West will be a severe blow to Turkey and will lead to further economic deterioration in the country and the loss of investor confidence in the Turkish economy, so he will try after the end of local elections in his country to persuade Washington to accept compromise or barter in some files To end the crisis between the two allies. "

Odehoglu stressed that it is difficult for Turkey to lose America at this complex stage of new arrangements for the region, nor can Washington bear the consequences that could result in the loss of Turkey.

"We are not a country subject to colonialism and we are not involved in American astronomy," he said.

The widening of the rift
Turkish Defense Minister Khulosi Akar said that the reluctance of the Allies to provide Turkey with air systems to protect itself from threats, had to buy the S400, which will be developed in October next Turkish territory.

"Turkish-American relations do not suffer today from a complete failure to remove the many causes of tension between the two countries because of the divergence of visions and conflicts of interest, but the possibility of widening the rift and turning it into a political and ideological adversity and hostility," said Turkish military expert Samir Salha.

"The Pentagon and Congress say that if Turkey gets Russian missiles, the confrontation with it will lead to an attempt to remove it from the modern F-35 fighter fleet and cut off the presence of Turkish security officers and experts in the strategic planning rooms of NATO, Information and plans for war and intelligence. "

The Turkish military expert believes that the biggest problem will be when the countries demand their other allies to determine their options and join the new alignment, indicating that the first to demand payment of the price and responsibilities is NATO, which has been collected in Turkey for more than six decades under one roof.

Salha believes that the real catastrophe will be when Israel looms in its position, its role and its regional share, and pours oil over the fire, fueling further escalation against Turkey, the partner of yesterday and today's enemy in the region.

He added that "the Turkish-American challenge is at its peak today, and the issue will not end with what the head of the European Command of the US Army, the Supreme Commander of the NATO forces, General Kurtis Scaparotti, the need not to give Turkey F-35 aircraft if they proceed to buy the Russian system, Says it is ready to discuss the purchase of Russian fifth-generation fighter Sukhoi 57 if Washington tried to keep it away from the partnership manufacturing and marketing of fighter F-35.

Sovereign decision
US Secretary of Defense James Matisse said a year and a half ago that Washington would not impede a Turkish step of this kind. This is a sovereign decision that should be respected, but he did not hesitate to remind the Turks that the work of the S-400 systems does not correspond in practice to the military equipment of NATO, Members.

The Turkish military expert valid that if the deployment of the system in a way to control the atmosphere of the Aegean region, Turkey will achieve significant air superiority, and will play a role in resolving the differences between Turkey and Greece in the Aegean Sea.

He concluded by saying that Turkey had signed the trade deal with Russia with a tempting offer. The head of the information department of the Russian Black Sea Fleet Alexei Rolyov hailed the joint naval maneuvers with Turkey in the Black Sea, the epicenter of the historical dispute between Ankara and Moscow.

"The most important thing today is that the stones are moving again on the regional chessboard, and almost the classical equations and balances known become a mirage that dissipates in the next two years."