Amine strand
The Saudi-Turkish relations were in a period of silent tension, with options and policy divergence between the two countries in the post-Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman era, and after the outbreak of Khashoggi crisis, relations between the two sides seemed to have entered a more decisive and decisive phase. Return to understanding and harmony, or back to estrangement and adversity.
The official Turkish attitude towards gradual escalation tried to match the direct correction to the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, with the acquittal of King Salman bin Abdul Aziz, and the quest to maintain the relationship with Saudi Arabia, while the Saudi official and semi-official positions remained between the silence sometimes and praise in Sometimes openly attacking Turkey, then attacking it secretly, avoiding any media escalation that might provoke the Turks and get things out of control.
However, a new development seems to be at least remarkable in its timing and context. The pioneers of the Twitter social networking site have awakened today to a label launched by Saudis: We call on Turkey to stop the Kurdish war, attacking Turkey and demanding that it stop the war against the Kurds. Is this a prelude to a stronger Saudi reaction to the Turkish escalation? Does this mean a continuation of the state of silence and ambiguity that the Saudi media has recently adopted towards Turkey after the praise of the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman over its president?
Contexts
It is clear that the Saudi decision-makers in the Khashoggi crisis did not have a clear answer to the question of the next step after the death of Khashoggi. They did not have a clear strategy to deal with its heavy repercussions. Therefore, their use of the crisis ranged from many options. According to many, In treatment, and misjudgment of the nature of the event and its consequences, among which are:
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- Silence: In the days following the assassination of Khashoggi, silence was imposed on the Saudi media and on official officials, and it appeared that the Saudi e-flies - which is based on the fabrication of crises and ferocity in the rivalries - was taken by surprise, and lost the compass in this case.
- The attack on Khadija Genghis, the fiancee of the deceased, and accused of fabricating stories and fabrication, and the impersonation of non-existent, and the abuse of the Kingdom and its leader.
- the exposure of the beauty of himself , and accused of treachery of the homeland, a tone that came - albeit blandly and in a limited extent - in the early stages of the crisis before the Saudi leadership recognized the death of the deceased and condolences in his departure, and pledged to hold accountable those involved in the assassination.
- The attack on Turkey and Qatar , which later turned into an appeasement and flirtation, after Mohammed bin Salman praised President Erdogan and asserted that no one would have been able to knock the differences between them as long as he and King Salman were king of Turkey and Erdogan.
- Now that all the previous scenarios have failed to stop the growing momentum of Khashoggi's case, to limit the Turkish rush to reveal its details, and to ask Saudi Arabia to lift the lid on the real actors;
Hypotheses
The slogan, which was launched by Saudi men under the title: "We demand Turkey's stance on many of the posts attacking Turkey and its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, accusing them of committing mass massacres against the Kurdish people."
An account was opened on behalf of the adviser, Abu al-Fawares, who wished to participate in it with all force to demand "Turkey to stop the war against the Kurds. It is clear that this mark came against the background of the Khashoggi case and Turkey's going to be a higher-than-expected bishop at the level of Saudi decision-makers. The song itself was then written: "Hmmtkm heroes participated strongly Trend Trend III ... Can you make it first .. Turkey now gave the green light to the militias to participate in demonstrations in front of the Saudi consulate in Turkey, demanding the cessation of the war in Yemen.
The demonstrators did not stop at the attack on Turkey and its president and its demand to stop the war against the Kurds. He went even further in the direction of inciting the international community to intervene against Turkey and calling for a resolution of the Kurdish state and granting it full independence.
Regardless of the contents of the above-mentioned mark, its introduction seems strange in the current context in which pressure is mounting on Saudi Arabia and its attempts to get closer to Turkey and flirt with it, perhaps fearing its own information, evidence and documents on the Khashoggi case, A Saudi to stay away from its evil and harm.
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It is possible to read and interpret this paradox according to the present and the precedents of the relationship between the two parties, according to the following possibilities:
- An isolated campaign led by some elements of e-flies is a victory for the Saudi crown prince and his defense in the face of the widespread criticism he faces from world opinion after Khashoggi's death.
Despite such a probability, those familiar with the nature of things in Saudi Arabia argue that campaigns of a political nature are difficult - and impossible - to be independent of the will of the guardian who controls the pulse of Twitter in the virtual space of the Kingdom, especially if it is also about attacking An external state whose relationship is very sensitive and difficult.
- to be limited and controlled , to send a special message to Turkey that it should avoid further escalation in the file Khashoggi, otherwise the Kingdom also has files and papers that can be moved at any time, especially in the subject of Kurdish sensitive to the Turks.
If this is indeed the case, the escalation will stop at this point, and the electronic flies will quickly return to its sheath and disappear behind its long silence.
This is reinforced by the possibility that the steps of appeasement and seduction policies pursued by Saudi Arabia over the last few weeks have not worked and have not convinced the Turkish officials to retreat from the escalation of Khashoggi's case to international attention, which necessitates - For Saudi officials - the search for other options may be more rough and less and less.
It is also clear that Khashoggi's case has entered a new phase of international escalation with the current week, after the Turks have talked about the conclusion of the investigators to final convictions to dissolve the body and get rid of them and impossibility of access to them. It is therefore not surprising that the Saudi approach to dealing with the new phase in the first phase .
In addition, you may find in the Saudi media a reference to such a thing, such as the one reported today by the Saudi newspaper close to the crown prince, entitled "Photographs taken for Erdogan during the centennial of the end of World War I, raise new questions about the validity of Turkish leader. "
Saudi Hashtak under UAE directives |
However, it is more likely that the Saudi royal court is not in a position to open a media front against Turkey, at least until the Khashoggi issue and the international escalation of the process are clarified.
Oud to start
If the Saudi hand is now "closed" and unable, according to previous considerations, to venture into a media and security campaign against Turkey because of the repercussions of the Khashoggi case; it was not so several months ago, and at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, A Saudi aimed at stabbing Turkey in its backyard in the Syrian north.
The Saudi-Saudi "plan" was based mainly on Kurdish forces that are currently in control of a large area in the Syrian north, Arab militias with US approval and approval, generous Saudi-Emirati funding, and blessing from Washington.
He said the site "Super News" that the PKK received Saudi financial support estimated at one million dollars, and that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates collectively allocated a budget of one billion dollars to spend on its political project in Aleppo and Deir al-Zor and Raqqa, according to the site.
| Saudi Minister Thamer al-Sbahan visited Raqqa in 2017 and met Kurdish and Arab leaders (Al-Jazeera) |
The Saudi project culminated with visits by the Saudi Minister of State for Arabian Gulf Affairs Thamer al-Sbahan to the city of Raqqa on October 18, 2017, accompanied by US Special Envoy to the International Coalition Brett McFort, and met with military leaders of the Syrian Democratic Forces and the Kurdish Democratic Union Party Turkey regards it as an extension of the PKK, which is considered a terrorist organization.
The Saudi moves supporting the Kurds, according to observers, were a response to Turkey as a result of its position on the Gulf crisis and before the coup of Egypt, before retreating later with the Turkish-American understandings in and around Manbaj.