After the return of sanctions .. What is the scary scenario for the Iranians?

Al Jazeera Net - Tehran

What concerns the Iranians these days is talking about a scenario that reminds them of what happened to their former Iraqi neighbor, which Iranian sources consider a nightmare that makes it a priority for the state to find ways to provide the basic needs of its citizens rather than moving forward towards progress and prosperity.

After the withdrawal of US President Donald Trump from the nuclear agreement with Iran in May and the threat of his administration to impose "historic" sanctions on Tehran; some are talking about the possibility of repeating the scenario of "oil for food" with Iran, which was followed by the Security Council with Iraq, In accordance with resolution 986 of 1995.

The Iranians see this scenario as a frightening nightmare, described by the former Iranian chief negotiator as a historical disgrace for Iran if it does, hoping it will not happen.

The beginning of Russia
After the observers were talking about this scenario, within the framework of forecasts and analyzes, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak in August, issued a statement on the existence of a deal with Tehran under which Russia buys 100,000 barrels of oil from Iran daily in return for the export of Russian food to it.

The Russian minister said that the deal is in its final stages under a previous agreement between the two countries, according to Iranian sources to the era of former President Ahmadinejad when Iran was subjected to comprehensive US and UN sanctions together.

While the spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry did not deny or confirm the statements of the Russian minister in his comment, the Deputy Minister of Oil for International Affairs, Amir Hussein Zamani denied the existence of a program under the name of "Iranian oil for Russian food." He said, "These swaps were during the days of the Iran- .

However, Zamani confirmed a deal with Russia on paper has not yet been implemented, under which the sale of one hundred thousand barrels of oil, but said that Iran will receive half of its proceeds in the form of goods and equipment, while the other half is in cash in euros.

Novak spoke in August of a deal under which Russia buys 100,000 barrels of oil from Iran in exchange for the export of Russian food to it (Reuters)

The agency quoted the sources as saying that the deal was not between the Russian and Iranian governments, but was between the Iranian and Russian companies were in the process of an agreement in this regard between them.

Parliamentarians expressed dissatisfaction with the deal, which MP Ayman Abadi described as "colonialism," saying: "According to my information, we do not have the right to choose the quality of imported goods. We do not know at what price they buy our oil, because one of their conditions is to determine this price, "He said.

However, in the context of the US trend to zero oil exports from Iran, it seems that the latter has no objection to providing incentives in this framework to its customers to continue to buy Iranian oil, as a spokesman for the Energy Committee of the parliament that Iran is ready to trade its oil with countries that buy only agricultural goods And medical equipment.

Psychological
The Iranian government does not want to interpret these trade-offs in the context of the oil-for-food scenario. It is considered a psychological war aimed at intimidating the Iranian citizen and suggesting that Iran is living an economic blockade.

"There is no such thing as oil for food. It's a psychological war, some of them want to promote because we live in difficult circumstances and economic blockade," said Faridun Hassnand, head of Iran's energy committee.

"The Islamic Republic has a completely different system. We do not allow this program to pass on us. Many countries are ready to buy our oil and we import our basic needs as usual," Hassnond said.

Iranian analysts see the oil-for-food scenario as unworkable with Iran, because there is basically no global consensus against such a program, and Iran is not Iraq in the 1990s, according to economist Said Meritrabi.

fact
Iranian newspapers and elites confirm that the US embargo on Iranian banks, financial transactions with Iran and the introduction of the US international "Swift" sanctions regime prevent Iranian export earnings, including oil, from being transferred to foreign currency in hard currency.

In the face of this reality, these sources say that Iran has no other option but to follow the system of barter, and receive the proceeds of oil exports or other either in the local currencies of importing countries or the import of goods and goods, whether food or equipment and services.

Fars news agency said in a report on November 29 that one of the US conditions for the eight countries that exempted from the oil sanctions to refrain from paying Iranian oil revenues in hard currency.

Iranian analysts and experts say the European Financial Channel (SPV) is not far from the "oil for goods or food" scenario, prompting the Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman to say that they are not familiar with the mechanisms accurately. "I deny the oil-for-food issue," he said.

However, these experts say that Iran does not get direct cash from this channel, which Europe wants to establish to continue trade with Iran, and that these funds are paid through a special mechanism to companies selling their goods through the channel.

The oil-for-food scenario at home is sometimes in the context of political rivalries. Some opponents of the government accuse the government of pursuing a policy that has brought the country closer to the oil-for-food or commodity scenario, the same accusation that reformists made to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's government before the nuclear deal.