Austrian Interior Minister Herbert Kikl sent an official letter to the European Commission, in which he substantiated his decision to extend border control with neighboring countries until November, reports TASS.
The minister fears that a stream of refugees from Africa and the Middle East will rush back to the European Union. In his letter, Kikl suggested that the number of the first wave of new asylum seekers in Western Europe could reach 70 thousand.
According to the head of the Austrian Ministry of Internal Affairs, in Bosnia and Herzegovina now there are 5 thousand illegal migrants who are going to get to more prosperous European countries, as many in Serbia and about 60 thousand in Greece. Kikl called on the European Commission to develop and agree with all EU members a plan in case the situation in 2015 should be repeated, when the European Union had to accept over a million refugees.
In an interview with the Austrian newspaper Kronen Zeitung, published on April 9, the Austrian Minister of the Interior referred to Europol data that in the near future there could be a massive infiltration of refugees into the EU through Turkey, similar to what was four years ago.
“It is necessary to prevent a new crisis, and not to wait for it to start,” the minister said.
- Herbert Kickle
- Reuters
- © Leonhard Foeger
Two days earlier, in an interview with the Österreich newspaper, Kikl drew attention to the fact that the destruction of the ISIS group in Syria creates additional risks for Europe, as some of the remaining terrorists under the guise of refugees will seek to infiltrate the EU. This is one of the main reasons why the Austrian Ministry of Internal Affairs extended the border regime, the minister concluded.
Recall that four years ago, at the height of the migration crisis, Austria suspended at its borders the rules of the Schengen Agreement, providing for complete freedom of movement. Since then, the border control regime has been extended several times and is due to expire in May 2019. However, Vienna wants to roll it over for another six months.
Border is locked tight
Austria is not the only EU country that closed its borders due to refugees. In 2015, several states went to this measure at once. When thousands of Middle Eastern refugees arrived in Serbia and Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary closed the borders with these two Balkan countries. Due to migrants several times, in 2011 and 2015, France closed the border with Italy.
“Such a unilateral closure of the borders suggests that many processes in the European Union are not regulated. Germany imposed quotas on receiving migrants to other European countries and provoked an influx of refugees to European countries, ”said Alexei Mukhin, general director of the Center for Political Information, in an interview with RT.
The quota system, which obliges all EU states to accept a certain number of refugees, was introduced in June 2015. However, the Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia began to openly sabotage this decision. In addition, each country of “united Europe” maintains its own asylum rules.
The participants of the Schengen Agreement also retain the right to temporarily suspend its action. And this is used by EU members who want to protect themselves from the flow of refugees. Experts note that such a measure has the support of the population of European countries. Thus, in 2017, according to a public opinion poll conducted by the Ipsos sociological service, almost half of French citizens - 46% - were in favor of closing the borders for migrants.
“The EU’s migration policy is discriminatory, as quotas imposed on different countries place a heavy burden on the economies of these countries. For example, the Czech Republic, thanks to the efforts and activity of its president, Miloš Zeman, avoided a similar fate and is now in a stable condition. Austria largely wants to repeat this success and abandon the quotas imposed on migrants from outside, which, on the one hand, is considered a violation of existing EU agreements (imposed by Germany on other countries), but on the other is an act of saving the national economy. So Austria can be understood, ”Mukhin said.
The idea of toughening the policy towards refugees is also actively supported by political forces in other European countries, especially of the right-wing type. In France, this is the “National Association” (formerly “National Front”) of Marine Le Pen, in the Federal Republic of Germany - “Alternative for Germany”, in Italy - the “League”.
“Right-wing parties in Europe seek to extract political dividends from this situation. They believe that their coming to power will solve the problem, but practice does not confirm this, ”Mukhin emphasized.
New wave
Some experts attribute Karml’s alarmist attitudes to his belonging to the right of the Austrian Freedom Party, which is extremely tough on migrants. However, in general, Kickle’s concerns are not unfounded, analysts say.
Thus, the head of the Department of Social and Political Studies of the Institute of Europe, RAS, Vladimir Schweitzer, believes that the EU may indeed face a new wave of refugees in connection with the intensification of hostilities in Libya. True, in his opinion, it is unlikely that Libyan refugees will use the so-called Turkish-Balkan route mentioned by Kikle (from Turkey through Greece and the Western Balkans to Austria and Western Europe). They were actively used by refugees during the 2015 migration crisis.
- Turkish shop in Berlin
- AFP
- © DAVID GANNON
“Refugees will be sent from Libya not to Austria, but to the nearest Italy,” said Schweitzer in an interview with RT.
Experts note that the Eurostat data on refugees does not provide a basis for unequivocal conclusions about a possible new phase of the migration crisis. According to the March report, over the past few years the number of asylum applications filed by migrants who have reached Europe has been decreasing. However, for individual countries (for example, Spain, Cyprus, Belgium) there has been a significant increase. In absolute leaders, Slovenia is neighboring with Austria: over the past year, the number of applications from refugees increased by 95% compared with 2017.
The fact that the problem of refugees is far from being resolved was reminded once more of the events of April 5 not far from the Greek city of Thessaloniki. Here, about a thousand migrants tried to break through the border with Northern Macedonia. The police had to use batons and tear gas. The cause of the incident became rumors spread on the network that the border would be opened, reports Euronews. Only on April 7, migrants left an improvised camp, which they created on the outskirts of Thessaloniki.
Readiness number one
Now the EU is better prepared for a possible new influx of refugees than in 2015, experts say.
“At the beginning of the Syrian conflict, German Chancellor Angela Merkel made a strategic mistake: she made it clear that Germany is ready to accept everyone who reaches its borders. This led to a migration crisis. “Word of mouth” worked, and everyone rushed to Europe. Today there will be no such situation: no one invites anyone, moreover, the authorities of European states will do everything in their power to close the sea border, ”said Nikolai Topornin, director of the Center for European Information, in an interview with RT.
The expert drew attention to the fact that the Frontex agency responsible for the security of external borders has been strengthened in the European Union: the budget has been increased, the staff have been trained and equipped. There is, finally, an agreement with Turkey on the admission of refugees seeking to the EU.
In 2018, the European Parliament adopted new rules for accepting refugees. Now the asylum procedure can last no more than six months, not a year, as before.
Vladimir Schweitzer believes that Brussels and individual EU countries have learned from the recent past. According to him, the EU has built a system of protection against illegal migrants, including if they rush en masse to the EU. However, the border states of the European Union (Spain, Italy, Greece) are at a disadvantage. Most of the refugees arrive there. And if they leave for other European countries, they are often returned back. A number of EU members (for example, Denmark) adhere to the rule that an asylum seeker can submit a request only in the EU country in which he arrived.
“In case the refugees will rush to, say, Italy, everything will come down to the fact that she will be paid a lot of money so that she will keep them for the first time. A camp will be created, for example, on the island of Lampedusa, to filter them, ”emphasizes Schweitzer.
Experts note that Kikl’s letter and its decision to close the Austrian borders suggests that “the threat of uncontrolled migration has not disappeared anywhere.”
“Reading the data of Eurostat on the overall decrease in the number of asylum seekers, European leaders cannot relax and assume that the problem has been solved. Especially this reminder is important in the spring. At this time, the flow of migrants increases as the weather improves and the sea is calm. Favorable weather conditions allow for easy access to the borders of Italy. So, there is a possibility that more refugees will reach Europe, ”concludes Topornin.
The absence of a clear European migration policy and the attempts of individual countries to independently solve this problem can lead to unpredictable consequences in the event of a new influx of refugees, experts say.
“This can lead to horrendous consequences. Migrants place a heavy burden on the national economies of European countries. Not adapting, they cause a strong social tension in European societies of different states. In general, it is not normal when hordes of migrants are walking around Europe, it puts Europe on the verge of losing its European identity, ”says Alexei Mukhin.
* “Islamic State” (IG, ISIL) - the organization is recognized as terrorist by the decision of the Supreme Court of the Russian Federation dated December 29, 2014.