The largest Estonian Center Party lost the opposition leadership following the elections of the Estonian parliament to the Riigikogu held on March 3. Parliamentary elections are held by the proportional system once every four years.
This year, the Reform Party won the most seats in the legislature, which managed to get 28.8% of voters. This gives the party the opportunity to qualify for 34 deputy out of 101 seats, whereas in the past convocation 30 reformists sat in the Riigikogu.
Not a fantastic success
During the election campaign, reformists focused on changing the tax system. The party proposes to introduce a “simple and unified” system that will reduce the bureaucracy. Calling themselves a liberal party, reformists advocate a single tax rate on all incomes, as well as exemption from investment taxes. In order to protect the interests of the low-income strata of the population, it is proposed to set a lower bar for income that will not be subject to fees. However, according to critics of reformists, challenging the expediency of a progressive scale of taxation, the party works for the hands of big business.
Another topic that the reformists paid attention to shortly before the elections was the restriction of Russian-language education. Party members believe that the education system, in which teaching is practiced in Russian and Estonian, divides society and creates prerequisites for inequality. In the fall of 2018, the parliamentary faction of the Reform Party prepared a bill prohibiting school and pre-school teaching in Russian.
“The current compromise, according to which schooling in a gymnasium is divided in a proportion of 40 by 60, is not practical,” said the head of the reformist faction, former Estonian Foreign Minister Jürgen Ligi.
- Yana Toom
- © yana.toom
The past vote is not the only one in the modern history of Estonia, when reformists achieved success in elections. According to the 2007 voting results, the party was supported by 27.8% of voters. However, then reformists entered the ruling coalition with other political forces. The representative of the Reform Party, Andrus Ansip, served as Estonian Prime Minister from 2005–2014.
It was during this period that the party initiated the draft law “On the Protection of Military Graves”, after the adoption of which the Monument to the Fallen in World War II, better known as the Bronze Soldier, was dismantled and moved from Tõnismägi Square. The authors of the draft law explained their initiative “care” about “protection, respect and dignity” of the remains of fallen servicemen, but the Russian-speaking population did not accept these arguments. The transfer of the monument provoked mass protests in the republic.
Member of the Board of the Center Party, MEP Yana Toom commented on the results of the elections to the Riigikogu in an interview with RT.
“For me, such a big gain for the Reform Party is a surprise. It was clear that EKRE would perform well, but that reformists would be able to make such a leap, it still does not fit in my head, ”Toom emphasized.
Speaking about the reasons for the success of reformists, Toom recalled the tax reform initiated by the Center Party and entered into force last year.
Recall, since January 1 last year, the non-taxable part of income was increased in the country for people receiving up to € 1,200 per month. At the same time, citizens who receive more than € 1.8 thousand cannot count on tax benefits. The reform was won by the poor residents of the republic, while wealthy Estonians rather suffered losses. The ruling party considered that the loss of a few dozen euros for wealthy citizens would not be a big blow. However, the Reform Party was able to take advantage of the discontent of rich Estonians, according to Toom.
“A huge number of people received a surcharge from the state, but the most vocal were those who themselves had to pay extra. The reformists played it very well, ”the politician explained.
Director General of the Information and Analytical Center for the Study of Socio-Political Processes in the Post-Soviet Space at Moscow State University, Chief Editor of the analytical portal RuBaltic.Ru Sergey Rekeda does not believe that the Reform Party has achieved fantastic success.
“She has always been quite popular in Estonia. Rather, it is appropriate to talk about the failure of the centrists, against whose background the Reform Party has succeeded, ”Rekeda explained in an interview with RT.
“Passive Voter”
The second place in the elections held the day before was won by the Estonian Center Party, which was supported by 23% of voters. This will allow the party to get 26 seats in parliament. The centrists are the largest party in the republic: after the merger in 2005 with the pensioners, the number of members of the organization reached 14 thousand.
The center party defends the rights of the low-income and unprotected segments of the population, considering at the same time its main goal to increase the country's middle class layer and the proportion of small businesses. In national issues, the centrists advocate the provision of equal and full-fledged citizenship to all residents of the country, without division by nationality. Also, the Center Party is opposed to revising the current language balance in the education system. Recall that in Estonia, as in Latvia, there is an institution of “non-citizenship” - after the proclamation of independence by the republic, ethnic Russians were denied their rights.
- School in Tallinn
- Reuters
- © Ints Kalnins
Experts call the Russian-speaking population an electoral base of centrists, as a rule, about 70-80% of Russian-speaking citizens of the country who have the right to vote, make their choice in favor of the Center Party.
However, this year the predominantly Russian-speaking regions showed a very low turnout. For example, according to the Narva Election Commission, only 41.4% of voters registered in the city came to the polls, which is 9.3% lower than during the last campaign. On the whole, the northeast of the republic showed a low turnout - it was only 48.2%. For comparison, this indicator was 55% in the last election. In other parts of the country, turnout was higher, for example, in Tallinn, 65.4% of the electorate voted.
As Yana Toom explained, in many respects the results of the Centrist Party are connected precisely with a low turnout.
“We knew that our voter was the most passive. Even preliminary studies have shown that 16% of our voters will not go to the polls, but will “root out” for us from home. It is possible that this happened, ”the politician believes.
Sergei Rekeda believes that the centrists themselves have pushed their electorate to a boycott of the elections.
“In this election, there simply wasn’t a party for which a Russian-speaking voter would like to go. Previously, the main battery of Russian-speaking voices was the centrist party, but when it entered the government, it lost ground, ”the expert believes.
“The Positive Meaning of Nationalism”
Not only the Reform Party managed to gain a foothold in the parliament: the Estonian Conservative Party (Estonian Eesti Konservatiivne Rahvaerakond, EKRE) was able to make a real breakthrough by winning 12 additional seats in the Riigikogu. According to the voting results, the right received 17.8% of the votes and 19 mandates.
In fourth place was the party "Fatherland" (est. "Isamaa"), which won 11.4% of the vote, receiving 12 seats. The Social Democratic Party, which received 9.8% of the vote and 10 seats in parliament, became the fifth.
- Activists of the Conservative Party of Estonia
- © rahvuspartei
The EKRE breakthrough did not come as a big surprise for experts - the popularity of right-wing populists is growing in a number of European countries.
EKRE is considered to be a party of euro skeptics who are irritated by the EU migration policy. The party is headed by a former diplomat, publicist Mart Helme, the politician even called for a referendum in 2016 on holding the republic out of the European Union, following the example of Great Britain.
“In fact, we need to once again ask the Estonian people if we want to abandon our state. The referendum is in this sense the best option, ”Helme said.
He is actively involved in the work of the party and the son of Martha Helme, Martin. In 2008, the young politician even headed the social movement for the transfer of the Bronze Soldier.
The EKRE party does not hide the fact that it occupies right-wing, nationalist positions, relying little on critics who accuse it of inciting xenophobia.
“Estonians are rather conservative and nationalistic. I know that this word has a dirty meaning in Western Europe. In Estonia, it has a positive meaning, ”said Martin Helme in an interview with the BBC.
The founders and supporters of the party have a particular hostility towards Russia. EKRE stands not only for the elimination of Russian-language education, but also for increasing defense spending to counter the "Russian aggression". In addition, right-wing conservatives want to cancel the border treaty with Russia - according to the party leadership, the document contradicts the constitution. Moscow, in their opinion, should also give Estonia "occupied territories" - land for Narva and Pechora district.
It should be noted that after EKRE published its election program, the leading Estonian parties, including reformists and centrists, announced that they would not enter into coalition agreements with it. Commenting on the EKRE program, a member of the Center Party, Raymond Kaljulaid, compared it with the “right-wing radical manifesto adopted under alcoholic vapors in a beer bar.” However, as shown by the election results, the call for EKRE turned out to be close to many residents of the country. Note that among other things, the party is in favor of banning same-sex marriage.
“Negotiations are just beginning.”
In the near future, the reform party that has won the most votes should form the ruling coalition. As the party's chairman, Kai Kallas, told reporters, two options are currently under development. Since cooperation with conservatives from EKRE is not considered, reformers may try to form an alliance with the Center Party. However, reformists have a lot of disagreement with it.
- Kaya callas
- AFP
- © Raigo PAJULA
“If we look at the programs, then with the Center Party we will have big differences in three issues: taxes, citizenship and education in the Estonian language,” Kallas quotes words rus.err.ee.
Another option could be the conclusion of a coalition agreement with the Fatherland and the Social Democratic Party. As Callas explained, with these parties, reformists have fewer ideological differences.
“We will keep in mind and discuss all possible coalition options. Negotiations are just beginning, ”the politician explained.
The outcome of these elections will be a change in the domestic political course of Estonia, said Yana Toom.
“In particular, there are no chances to preserve Russian-language education. As for the foreign policy, it will not change, since Estonia is a member of the European Union, ”Toom explained.
According to Sergei Rekeda, according to the results of the elections, it can be stated that the nationalists are gaining great strength and influence in the country.
“In fact, the ideological differences between reformists who position themselves in the role of European liberals and nationalists from EKRE are not so great. In any case, the entire political spectrum of Estonia is shifted to the right, ”the expert concluded.