Venezuelans will defend their country in the event of a military invasion of the United States, said President Nicolas Maduro in an interview with La Sexta. He also rejected the ultimatum of the EU countries, in which the Europeans demanded to hold presidential elections.

The prospects for intra-Venezuelan civil conflict depend on the “level of madness and aggression of the northern empire,” Maduro said, referring to the United States. According to him, the military and the militia are preparing for a possible invasion.

“We ask not to interfere in the internal affairs of our country, and we are ready to defend her,” Maduro said.

Recall that the day before, US President Donald Trump in an interview with CBS television channel said that he did not rule out the option of sending the American military to Venezuela.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov noted that Trump’s statement on the use of military force demonstrates Washington’s true intentions.

“The United States does not hide the fact that they want to change the regime at any cost. So, yesterday, Trump said that he leaves on the table the option of military intervention. This undermines all the foundations of international law, ”the TASS news agency quoted as saying.

Permanent Representative of Venezuela to the UN Samuel Moncada said that the US intentions to conduct military intervention in his country are obvious.

“We must not allow the situation in Venezuela to become an occasion for Trump to start a war that he needs in order to save his skin as president,” the diplomat said.

The Venezuelan army is leading in Latin America, as remembered in the United States, Nikolai Kalashnikov, deputy director of the Institute of Latin American Studies, Russian Academy of Sciences, said in an interview. And in case of a military confrontation, Washington will face big problems, the expert noted.

“Everyone recognizes that the Venezuelan army is the most technically well-armed in Latin America. If the Venezuelan armed forces find it necessary to fight the American invasion, then for the USA this will result in significant casualties, to which they are never ready. If a partisan war begins in Venezuela, it will be serious and for a long time, ”Kalashnikov stressed.

Colombian bridgehead

The topic of a possible US invasion of Venezuela was at the center of attention after journalists noticed that 5,000 soldiers to Kolubmyia were recorded in the notebook of Trump's adviser on national security John Bolton. Shortly before this, the American media reported that Donald Trump himself was discussing the possibility of an invasion with Republican Senator Lindsay Graham, who also has the rank of Colonel of the United States Air Force in reserve.

However, the Colombian authorities have stated that they are not involved in any preparations for military actions against neighboring Venezuela.

“As for the mention of Colombia in the notebook, which Mr. Bolton was holding, the meaning and reasons for such a mention are unknown to us,” said Collosian Foreign Minister Carlos Olmes Trujillo.

  • Juan Guaido
  • Reuters
  • © Carlos Garcia Rawlins

Acting Secretary of Defense Patrick Shanahan also said that he did not discuss with Bolton the possibility of sending American troops to Colombia.

This is not the first time that the White House raises the issue of military intervention in Venezuela. Donald Trump mentioned the “restoration of democracy” in the Latin American country by military means in August 2017.

“We have many options for Venezuela, and I do not rule out a military solution. A military operation and a military solution are exactly what we could implement, ”the 45th President of the United States said at the time.

Framed President

The political crisis in Venezuela became aggravated at the end of January, after opposition politician and chairman of the National Assembly, Juan Guaido, declared himself acting president. The current president, Nicolas Maduro, he accused of usurping power. A few days later, Donald Trump held a telephone conversation with the opposition leader and congratulated Guaido on taking office.

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For today, Guaido has been recognized as the "interim president" of Spain, Great Britain, Sweden, Canada, Israel, France, Austria and a number of other states. A number of EU countries also put forward an ultimatum in which they declared that they would recognize the opposition leader as president if new elections are not held in Venezuela.

In turn, Italy blocked the EU’s joint declaration of recognition of Juan Guaido as president, which, after the expiration of the ultimatum, was to be made by the head of European diplomacy Federica Mogherini.

Psychological pressure

At the moment, the United States does not have the opportunity to organize an invasion of Venezuela, said Vladimir Batiuk, chief researcher at the Institute of the USA and Canada.

“Venezuela, like other Latin American countries, is under the responsibility of the US Southern Command. There are absolutely no combat-ready units and formations at his disposal that could be thrown into battle. The southern command has a presence in the region through military-technical cooperation, military diplomacy, ”the expert explained in a conversation with RT.

For a full-fledged invasion, the United States will have to transfer connections from other regions to the region, Batiuk added.

“Of course, it is possible to transfer American troops from other regions of the planet, but in the Middle East there remains an extremely unstable situation, in Europe, the United States should help NATO "contain" Russia. In the Asia-Pacific region, the growing Chinese military power is a headache for them, ”explained the expert.

  • Soldiers of the Armed Forces of Venezuela at the parade
  • AFP
  • © Leo Ramirez

A possible invasion of the United States will lead to a guerrilla war of a hybrid nature in Venezuela, said Batiuk. Only armed forces that are familiar with the local conditions, the theater of military operations, are able to establish contacts with the local population will be able to win such a war, the expert added.

“So far, the statements of the American side look partly as a bluff, threats and attempts to exert psychological pressure on the Venezuelan authorities,” said Batiuk.

The expert recalled that the last successful operation of the US Army in the region was the invasion of Panama in 1989. Then the US military had much more prepared forces and springboards for such actions, explained Batiuk.

“The United States at that time had powerful military bases in the Panama Canal zone, units familiar with the theater of operations, with the ethno-anthropological and ethno-religious composition of the local population, who had experience in conducting counterinsurgency and counter-partisan operations in the region. Now the Americans have no such experience, there are no military bases in the territory of Latin American countries except Guantanamo, there are no units ready to conduct such operations in South America, ”said the expert.

Loss of reputation

The view that statements about the invasion by the Trump administration are attempts at psychological pressure is shared by the editor-in-chief of Arsenal of the Fatherland magazine, Viktor Murakhovsky.

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“There will be no direct military invasion of Venezuela by the United States. It is rather the creation of psychological and informational pressure on Venezuela and its legitimate leadership. There is no formation of any expeditionary, offensive-strike group against Venezuela by the US armed forces, ”said Murakhovsky in an interview with RT.

In addition, the expert noted, any expeditionary force during the invasion of Venezuela will face serious resistance from the country's army.

“The armed forces of Venezuela are sufficiently developed, in large numbers are equipped with modern weapons and military equipment, including air defense systems, coastal missile systems, artillery, tanks. Venezuelan Armed Forces on the staffing and level of combat training - one of the best and most powerful in Latin America. The hypothetical US military invasion of Venezuela will definitely not be an easy walk, ”Murakhovsky stressed.

At the same time, Nikolai Kalashnikov, in an interview with RT, explained that, despite the support of the Maduro government by the highest army ranks, opposition supporters may be among the personnel of the Venezuelan armed forces.

“The Venezuelan army is not homogeneous, there are people in it who hold different views. In the mass of its command, the highest officers support the ruling regime. What happens in junior officers is a more complicated question, ”said the expert.

Cuba and the Republic of Nicaragua could also support Venezuela, but the Venezuelan defense potential is quite high in itself, the expert noted. He also stressed that in the event of a decision on direct military intervention, the Trump administration and the United States as a whole will face serious reputational losses.

“The United States has already been noted in a negative sense in Afghanistan, where the war has been going on since 2001, and there is no success, a similar situation in Iraq. Reputational losses threaten the American side with a further decline in US authority in the world and the emergence of doubts about their military might, including from NATO allies and in Asia. On the other hand, a possible invasion is fraught with real losses, since the potential combat capabilities of the Venezuelan Armed Forces are quite high, ”concluded Victor Murahovsky.