"Bill of divorce" from Europe .. What if Britain received what was ordered?

Mohamed Amari

As if the British discovered that the exit from the European Union, voted 51.9 percent in a referendum in late June 2016, was not as easy as those who called for leaving the European House and decorating it for voters, and perhaps if the citizens of the United Kingdom What they had to say was that they had an opinion other than that expressed by the majority three years ago.

Many points confirm this conclusion, not least that the government of Teresa Mae has entered a spiral of no way out, after the House of Commons twice rejected the proposal of an agreement with the Union to the Union to announce the "divorce" with London.

Demonstrations and petition
Hundreds of thousands of Britons gathered in central London on Saturday to oppose the pact, calling for a new referendum to review the results of the previous referendum, and the number of signatories to the petition demanding the British government to back off the EU exit was more than 4.5 million on Saturday.

The signature rate is "the highest rate the site has ever seen," the petition committee said in a tweet on Twitter. The huge number of signatures led to the sudden collapse of the petition site (government and parliament) in Britain.

On the other hand, a poll conducted by the days of the "Yu Goof" studies that 90% of Britons expressed their desire to consider other options, including going to early elections or to hold another referendum, instead of the May agreement to get out of the European Union.

The survey added that 52% of the British people support the postponement of exit from the European Union, and 56% expressed their support to find a solution to the question of the bricast through a new referendum.

For months, European policy expert Konstantin Frazier of the TS Lombard Center told AFP that a second referendum on the bricast "would be a serious option" and that there was "a growing dynamism" in that direction, stressing that this possibility "is gaining momentum" .

The inability of the government to reach consensus with the House of Commons "extends the state of doubt, and will have a political and economic price," as confirmed in a press statement by the chief negotiator of the European Union Michel Barnier.

Economic losses
This is the economic price Britain has begun to pay since the first months following the June 2016 referendum. There have been reports of a 25% decline in the real estate market in some British cities, the pound depreciating and the country's economic growth falling below expectations Seen by specialists.

Earlier, an investigation by Britain's Times newspaper revealed that about a third of British billionaires had already moved or were moving to tax havens and confirmed that public records showed that 28 out of 93 billionaires "have moved to safe havens or are moving."

Moody's said earlier that the British vote for the bricast had a negative impact on Britain's sovereign credit rating and the ratings of other exporters of debt instruments in the country, saying the vote "carries a long period of policy uncertainty that will put pressure on economic and financial performance." "For the country.

"Increased mistrust will likely reduce investment flows and confidence, which will put pressure on the growth prospects of the UK, which will negatively affect the credit rating of sovereign debt and other debt issuers in the UK," she said.

In the same context, the Dutch Foreign Investment Agency announced the transfer of 42 companies from Britain to the Netherlands because of the uncertainty of Brixt, the British Financial Times reported that the British financial services companies transferred about a trillion pounds of financial assets to other European countries.

The newspaper said in a report that the financial services sector in Britain is currently the worst contingency plans in its history. Other media reports said three-quarters of the world's banks announced a major transfer of operations from Britain, with Frankfurt becoming the most popular destination for financial operations in Europe.

Another study by the German Bertelsmann Foundation revealed that if an unregulated exit from the EU occurs without an agreement, Britain would incur a loss of 57 billion euros a year, or about 875 euros per Briton.

Uncertainty
The British central bank also warned that continued uncertainty about exit from the EU affects the British economy and undermines the confidence of companies, saying that this is causing fluctuations in asset prices in the UK, especially the pound exchange rate.

He stressed that increasing uncertainty about Britain's exit without agreement "can have a significant impact on corporate spending," and that the lack of clarity of a specific exit date actually affects the "short-term economic activities, especially business investment."

A European bank study also suggested that Britain's exit from the EU could cost its economy £ 100 billion and destroy about one million jobs.

The "divorce bill" also imposes on Britain to meet all financial obligations arising from its membership in the Union. The British government estimates that these commitments range from 35 to 39 billion pounds sterling, and London must participate in the annual financial plans of the Union until the end of 2020.

Britain annually pays the equivalent of $ 47 billion in EU membership costs, but in return it has deep-rooted economic ties with Europe, which is described as the world's largest market.

Britain's economy is about one-sixth of European economies combined, and 47% of Britain's exports are directed to the EU, which includes half a billion consumers, while London receives 53% of its imports, These figures are linked to foreign trade, about three million jobs directly or indirectly.

Political Invoice
In addition to the tension and instability in the UK's relationship with the EU and the possible repercussions of its foreign policy, the internal arena is not without the same tension reflected by the tug-of-war between the government and the House of Commons. Twice the government's proposal for the Brix agreement, refused to vote on it the third time.

He is also not afraid that the bricast and its aftermath have made the Teresa Mai government walk on a fragile layer of ice that is about to crumble at the nearest quake in the way.

The difficult labor of Britain in the battle for her exit from the European Union is reminiscent of the birth of her daughter, who was also difficult to enter. In 1963, she tried to join a bloc that was then known as the "European Communities" and the objection of then French President Charles Douglass. Dugol resigned from the presidency in 1967, and yet the actual accession to the European Union was only in 1972.

Between Britain and Britain, the British Independence Party, which was one of the main parties that pushed the country into the current bricast, became the second largest party in the mid-1990s.