The deadline that the world's governments had given themselves to achieve the Paris goals is about to end, and the planet is not on track to avoid climate disaster. The UN has just released the most comprehensive assessment of efforts made collectively since the countries of the world signed the Paris Agreement in 2015. Eight years later, after talking to governments, businesses, farmers, NGOs, scientists and technicians, the conclusions could not be more disheartening.

Global emissions are not in line with the reduction models that allowed the targets to be achieved. And not only that, the window of opportunity "is closing rapidly," warns the report of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).

Now governments must quickly find a way to cut billions of tons of carbon dioxide if they want to keep the world from exceeding 1.5 degrees of warming by the end of the decade.

Governments were supposed to peak global greenhouse gas emissions by 2025, and from there start reducing them rapidly. However, emissions continue to rise, and there is a gap of 20.3 to 23.9 gigatons of carbon dioxide between the planned cuts for 2030 and the current pace of global gas emissions.

Achieving the targets would require "phasing out all fossil fuels" and encouraging renewables, the report says, something oil-producing countries would now be unable to accept. Although the 47-page report does not specify which countries are falling behind, nor does it contain specific recommendations for anyone.

"The UN's polite prose overlooks what is a damning report of global climate efforts. We already know that the world is not meeting its climate goals, but now leaders have a concrete plan backed by a mountain of evidence on how to do their job," said Ani Dasgupta, director of the World Resources Institute's think tank.

"A whole-of-society approach is needed because the window of opportunity is closing very quickly," Mohammad Tariq, Vice-Chair of Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), told a virtual press conference.

Tariq stressed that the public and private sectors, academia and civil society, among others, must be involved in what constitutes "the only way forward", since otherwise the consequences of the climate crisis will be such that no one will be able to control them.

The report is part of the process known as the global stocktaking whose first round will conclude next December in Dubai, where more than 200 countries will evaluate at COP28 the progress made so far.

"In Dubai, countries must agree on an ambitious package of measures that can constitute a rapid response plan to make the report's recommendations a reality," said Tom Evans, climate policy expert at think tank EG3.

  • Articles Ricardo F. Colmenero
  • Climate change
  • UN