Real estate companies have discounts on Double 11, 50% off some new houses in Guangzhou and Wuhan, will house prices fall in the fourth quarter
"China Economic Weekly" reporter Li Huimin|Report from Beijing
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in September, the national real estate sales area and sales increased significantly year-on-year and month-on-month, and sales during the year were positive for two consecutive months.
However, the specific sales data of various real estate companies are not as eye-catching as leading companies such as Evergrande.
As of the third quarter, many real estate companies, especially small and medium-sized real estate companies, have not fulfilled their expected sales targets. In the fourth quarter, real estate companies have further discounted "shopping" in order to sprint annual results.
As a result, will house prices fall?
The real estate market is divided, "ice and fire"
According to analysis by Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline Real Estate, overall, the impact of the epidemic has basically passed, and real estate investment across the country has begun to fully recover. From the north to the south, the start of construction has gradually normalized.
However, the temperature rise of the property market is not completely synchronized, and the inter-city real estate market has differentiated.
According to data from E-House Research Institute, in the first three quarters of this year, the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in 18 cities including Jinhua, Lanzhou, Xiamen, Dongguan and Hangzhou increased year-on-year.
Zhuhai, Changsha, Nanchang, Wuhan and Chongqing became the five cities with the largest year-on-year decline in new house transaction volume in the first three quarters.
In terms of prices, the cumulative increase in the price of newly built residential buildings in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta has significantly expanded compared with the same period last year. The cumulative increase in the Yangtze River Delta has been the highest in the same period in the past four years.
At the same time, the sales data of real estate companies are also quite interesting.
Except for the remarkable achievements of leading real estate companies such as Evergrande and Country Garden, some small and medium-sized real estate companies have not achieved satisfactory performance targets, and the sales of real estate companies have experienced serious differentiation.
According to statistics conducted by the China Real Estate News on the sales performance of TOP50 real estate companies, only 7 of the 30 real estate companies that announced their performance targets have a completion rate of more than 75%, and most of the real estate companies have failed to meet expectations.
According to a report by the Crane Real Estate Research Center, in the first three quarters, nearly 30% of real estate companies have achieved a target completion rate of less than 65%, which is the highest in the same period in the past three years.
In the first three quarters of 2020, the proportion of real estate companies with a target completion rate of more than 75% was only 22%, a decrease of 15 percentage points from the data of the same period in 2019 and a decrease of 37 percentage points from the data of 2018.
China Evergrande’s sales from early September to October 8 reached 141.6 billion yuan, more than the sum of July and August, and almost achieved 91.1% of the annual target in the first three quarters.
Country Garden and Sunac also achieved good sales performance in the first three quarters.
Country Garden achieved sales of 64.63 billion yuan in a single month in September, a year-on-year increase of 13.05 billion yuan; Sunac’s sales in September were 68.94 billion yuan, an increase of about 6 billion yuan year-on-year.
Other real estate companies are not so optimistic.
In the first September of this year, Modern Land's sales amounted to about 26.916 billion yuan. In 2018, it set its sales target for 2020 at 50 billion yuan.
Due to the epidemic and other factors this year, Modern Land has lowered its target to 42 billion yuan. Judging from the data in the first three quarters, it has completed about 64% of the annual target.
In addition, from January to September, Greentown China’s cumulative sales amount was approximately 113.9 billion yuan, only about 46% of its annual sales target of 250 billion yuan.
In the fourth quarter, real estate companies may increase their discounts and promotions, "price for quantity"
Behind the recent sales blowout of some real estate companies is their increased efforts in discounts and promotions.
For example, Evergrande launched a 25% discount event, which attracted a lot of attention.
Sales data show that in August and September, the average sales price per square meter of Evergrande was 9,669 yuan and 8,627 yuan, respectively. It can be seen that in September, each square meter dropped by 1042 yuan.
Yan Yuejin, research director of the Think Tank Center of E-House Research Institute, told a reporter from China Economic Weekly that compared with August, the year-on-year and month-on-month increase in the price index of commodity housing in 70 cities across the country has narrowed, indicating that it is currently in the stage of discount sales. .
On the whole, the Jinjiuyinshi property market is picking up, but the overall situation in the fourth quarter is still difficult to judge.
From a policy point of view, it is the basic principle that housing should not be speculated. Once some cities experience overheating this year, regulation will be upgraded.
From the perspective of financing, although the "three red lines" regulatory rules have not yet been fully implemented, reducing debt has become a key task for high-debt, highly leveraged real estate companies, and these have put a certain pressure on the overall operation of real estate companies.
Real estate companies have reduced their debts and accelerated the withdrawal of funds by accelerating the elimination of funds. This has become the most important thing in the second half of the year.
In fact, since the beginning of the year, major real estate companies have done everything they can to accelerate sales, recover funds, and constantly try various marketing methods such as live house sales and online sales to reduce the impact of the epidemic on offline sales.
In the fourth quarter, under the pressure of the full-year performance target, industry insiders predict that price-for-volume or tactics commonly adopted by real estate companies.
Chen Xiao, an analyst at the Data Research Center of Zhuge Finding a House, told a reporter from China Economic Weekly that he entered the "Golden Nine" and repeatedly emphasized in the central government that "housing should not be speculated", the "three red lines" of real estate enterprises were overwhelming, and the traditional sales season Under the circumstance, the phenomenon of price-for-volume exchange by real estate enterprises has increased, and the increase in new house prices in September has all declined, and the number of cities where new house prices have increased has decreased.
October is still the peak season for traditional marketing, and real estate companies continue to increase their discounts and promotions, actively promote sales, and sprint performance.
From the current point of view, the momentum of gunpowder is going further.
The "Silver Ten" has not yet passed, and real estate companies have been eyeing the important "festival" of "Double 11".
According to official data from Tmall, this year's "Double 11", more than 100 real estate companies across the country participated in holiday promotions, involving more than 3,000 real estate, covering nearly 300 cities.
Half of the mainstream real estate currently on sale in various places can be bought during the "festival" period on Tmall.
In the coming year, some listings in cities such as Guangzhou, Wuhan and Shijiazhuang will even exceed 50% off.
The reporter entered the Taobao website and opened Tmall Haofang and saw that many well-known real estate companies such as Country Garden, Zhongnan Land, Poly, Sunac, R&F, Sunshine City, Shimao, etc. have joined the "Double 11" online sales promotion, saving up to 100,000 , 400,000 and other real estate promotion advertisements are very eye-catching.
"For real estate companies, if there is pressure to complete the annual sales target, it will indeed lead to a change in their marketing strategy, at least some impact, and thus take actions such as price reduction promotions. It is expected that some real estate companies will be active in the fourth quarter. Price reduction promotion and profit distribution, and the degree of profit distribution should be related to the completion of the sales target." Yan Yuejin analyzed the "China Economic Weekly Reporter".
"From a corporate level, house prices should fall in the fourth quarter. However, from a city level, it may not necessarily be significantly reduced, because there will still be some projects with relatively high land costs, and many real estates are still high-end projects. But comparison three In the quarter, the overall price of the city is still easy to reduce." Yan Yuejin said.