The infectious diseases unit at Gonesse hospital, October 22, 2020. -

AFP

The number of cases of coronavirus in the elderly, which has risen sharply in recent days, especially in nursing homes, raises fears of an increase in mortality, according to weekly data published on Friday.

"The increase in the number of Covid-19 cases among residents of nursing homes raises fears of an increase in deaths in the coming weeks," warned the French public health agency, presenting its weekly update.

A massive increase in cases among people 65 and over

During the week of October 19 to 25, the number of confirmed cases in medico-social establishments, including nursing homes, experienced a very strong increase (+ 84% compared to the previous week).

A particularly marked movement in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes, Bourgogne Franche-Comté and Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur.

This observation of an increase concerns all people over 65, even those who do not live in nursing homes: the health agency indeed notes a "significant spread of the epidemic" in this age group.

"Compared to early September, the number of cases has increased sevenfold among 65-74 year olds and eightfold among those over 75 years old," said Christine Campèse, epidemiologist at Public Health France, during a point online press release.

Likewise, the number of hospitalizations for people over 65 has increased eightfold compared to early September and the number of intensive care admissions by seven.

No more hospital deaths

For the week of October 19 to 25, hospitalizations for people over 65 increased by 44% compared to the previous one.

The number of confirmed cases jumped 68% among 65-74 year olds and 89% among those over 75.

These are all indicators that raise fears of an increase in deaths in the coming weeks, since the elderly are particularly likely to be seriously affected by the disease.

Thus, “92% of deceased Covid-19 cases are aged 65 and over”.

In the week of October 19 to 25, 1,318 deaths linked to Covid-19 were recorded in hospitals and medico-social establishments (including nursing homes), against 872 the previous week, a "net" increase of 51%.

Among these deaths, the increase is "particularly high" in hospital (1,078 against 672 the previous week).

Figures much lower than in March

The number of deaths in nursing homes type is also "increasing since early September".

Even if the latest figures are not yet consolidated, Public Health France estimates the number of deaths at "29 per day on average in establishment".

"This remains however much lower than what was observed at the time of the peak of the epidemic in March, with an average number of deaths in establishment which went up to 200 per day", notes the health agency.

More broadly, Public Health France notes a "very strong increase in all indicators" all age groups combined.

The number of new hospitalizations for Covid-19 "significantly increased" for the week considered, to 12,176 (against 7,530 for the previous one).

Ditto for intensive care admissions, with 1,816 against 1,343.

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