Where will the new Yamal gas go?

Towards the end of last week, an event took place on the Russian Yamal Peninsula, which, it would seem, was supposed to please European consumers of Russian energy resources the most.

A new gas deposit was discovered at the Yamal resource base, which is traditional for northern European markets.

Moreover, not just anywhere, but on the shelf of the Kara Sea, on the rather well-known and officially categorized as unique (in this case, this is not a journalistic stamp, but quite an official bit) Leningrad gas condensate field of the Yamal gas production center.

Let us quote the operator of the field - this is necessary simply in order to realize the scale of a seemingly quite everyday event.

“The Leningradskoye field in the Kara Sea received an inflow with a debit of about 600 thousand cubic meters per day.

It testifies to the significant volumes of gas in the deposit, ”the Gazprom press service modestly informs us.

And then he adds, no less modestly: “This is the fourth major discovery of the company on the Priyamal shelf in two years”.

What can I say here?

Routine, you know.

Yamal is a rich land ...

Just to make it clear: only the above-mentioned Leningradskoye gas condensate field located in the Kara Sea, within the Leningradskoye license area, even before the discovery of a new deposit had current recoverable gas reserves, which - attention!

- were estimated at 1.9 trillion cubic meters.

m (excluding gas condensate).

And thus officially this deposit was classified as unique.

By the way, the gas in the field is so-called dry, methane (from 91 to 99% content), gas condensate is present only in the Aptian deposits.

Sounds even without fresh discoveries ... um ... pretty solid.

And now these already very tangible volumes will need to be recalculated upwards again.

Moreover, it is not yet very clear how much to count.

No, it is clear that "by a lot" (even if we simply judge by the daily inflow of 600 thousand cubic meters).

But how much, it is still necessary to clarify in the near future.

What else is, of course, important here, because (we have no doubt) it will certainly be discussed in what tone by numerous industry critics ... Yes, the Leningradskoye gas condensate field was indeed discovered back in 1992.

In many respects inertia, the Soviet one is, in fact, "Arktikmorneftegazrazvedka".

And its current "additional exploration" can still (with some stretch, of course) be attributed to the category of that "inertial assimilation of the Soviet legacy."

But let's just list those major discoveries of Gazprom in the region over the past couple of years, which were discussed a little above, and a lot will immediately fall into place.

So, in 2019, on the shelf of the Yamal Peninsula in the same Kara Sea, but in a different place and in other license areas, Gazprom first discovered the V.A.

Dinkov, whose recoverable reserves by the sum of C1 + C2 categories amount to 390.7 billion cubic meters and are also assessed as unique.

A little later, the Nyarmeyskoye field located within the Nyarmeysky license area was discovered, as well as the 75 Let Pobedy field located within the Skuratovskaya prospective area.  

The latter two do not yet belong to the category of unique - they are just large: 120.8 billion cubic meters and 202.4 billion cubic meters, respectively.

But these three discoveries certainly cannot be attributed to "mastering the Soviet heritage".

But the most important thing in what is happening, unfortunately, is not even quite that.

In short, the question is: why this news should have become joyful for European consumers of Russian gas, but in fact it is not yet very clear whether they can be considered such in the current realities?

Why is it important?

Here's what certainly needs to be clearly understood: the Yamal resource base (and without current discoveries, by the way, is incredibly rich) is probably the last, extreme point from where it makes sense, purely geographically, to pull gas pipelines to the west.

Already, for example, from the east of Taimyr, on the development of which Rosneft is now thoughtfully starting to work, it is simply economically senseless.

Therefore, over Yamal, it is Europe that should be shaking with all its might, as they say: trends have changed, and now it is not Russian gas that is competing for European sales markets.

On the contrary.

It is the European and Asian markets that are competing for Russian pipeline gas.

And while there is a feeling that Asian buyers in this confrontation may well win.

Even in spite of all the traditional orientation of Russian raw material producers to the usual European markets.

Everything is simple here.

The agonizing saga with Nord Stream 2 not only confirmed fears about the low reliability of the European political authorities as partners in any energy project important for the country.

She questioned the viability and responsibility of continental Europe in general: yes, it is obvious that only so far in the "long term".

At a short distance, at the level of making operational decisions, the Europeans seem to have defended the gas pipeline that is important for them first of all.

But strategic decisions by partners who respect themselves and each other, in general, are made in a completely different way.

Therefore, it is obvious that the risks are too great for new long-term joint projects: it is impossible to agree on something with someone who, no matter for some good reason, is not able to fulfill these agreements.

And if continental Europe acts with such uncertainty even in a project that is vital for its own future, does it even make sense to build any long-term strategic relationship with such an unreliable partner?

Yes, unreliable, we repeat, not of our own free will, but due to difficult life circumstances and tough American pressure.

But for strategy, for building long-term relationships, such sentiments do not play any role: no one is interested in your high moral qualities and other passive, sorry, case.

What matters is only your ability and ability / desire to be responsible for your words and follow the agreements reached.

And in the latter, regarding both Europe in general and Germany in particular, doubts are now definitely there.

And we must frankly say that the political scandal with the "oppositionalfuehrer" Navalny, diligently fanned by the German authorities, with which they are trying to cover up their unwillingness to interrupt the construction of Nord Stream 2, and the attempt to "buy the Americans" by building additional capacities for receiving LNG with German money unfortunately, they look (at least from the point of view of the Russian Federation) not at all as "skillful political maneuvering."

And as a frank weakness.

Not the best quality for a strategic partner, what can I say.

Forcing at least to think very hard.

No, the projects that are already in operation and are already being implemented, including the long-suffering Nord Stream 2, will undoubtedly be brought to mind.

But the further development of cooperation in the western direction is a very big and now quite real question.

There is no answer to which objectively yet.

So, even so casually discovered a new gas deposit at a field unique in terms of reserves is also, most likely, not about a European consumer.

Alas.

And the point here is not at all in the Chinese, who in the future look much more stable and responsible buyers than the continental Europe, subject to such political influences.

And not in the enthusiasm with which some Gazprom executives are rightly excited about the development of their own LNG production facilities, including in Yamal.

And not even that the Russian president, almost in a directive manner, ordered the same Gazprom to focus on domestic markets.

On the one hand, all this is really so - and it would be good for more than one Novatek to deal with LNG there, with all that is said, respect.

And the internal markets are becoming much more interesting for Gazprom, and not only because of the famous “presidential friendly kick”, but simply because suddenly in the new conditions they are much more stable than external ones.

And this is almost a determining factor in strategic planning and calculating the prospects of a particular direction in the modern world.

Yes, all this really "has a place to be."

But, of course, the root causes of what is happening is that Russian suppliers have too many questions for their traditional European partners.

And, oddly enough, to their political self-determination about their own sovereignty: politics in the modern world, alas, also turns out to be an integral part of the economy.

And we can no longer afford to further develop long-term partnerships with non-sovereign and, as a result, irresponsible European governance structures.

Therefore, either Europe will become at least a little more responsible and sovereign in the coming years, or export gas from new deposits and fields of the Russian Yamal, sooner or later, will surely go to the east.

The author's point of view may not coincide with the position of the editorial board.