Pentagon President Mark Esper said the need to strengthen NATO to deter Russia and China. As usual with the Americans, the conversation went about money. The notorious 2% of GDP for defense, which Trump has tried to knock out of American allies in recent years, is still reluctant to pay. Perhaps even more reluctantly than at the beginning of his presidency.
And therefore you need a quality horror story. Esper called the Celestial Empire the main problem. A country with one and a half billion people and five minutes to one, the world's first economy is causing a flurry on the banks of the Potomac. China wants to oust the United States from the world stage, confident in the Pentagon. It seems that Moscow did not fail with a foreign policy turn to the east. We have a great ally.
The characterization of Russia as an enemy is more modest, but much more romantic. According to Esper, we are "a source of turmoil throughout the world." “The annexation of Crimea, the conduct of war in Ukraine, threats to NATO allies and the sending of troops to Syria and Libya,” the Pentagon head listed the “sins” of Moscow, forgetting to remove the log from his own eyes. And therefore, they say, Russia must be restrained. Fears?
Esper made all these strategic revelations in his article on the upcoming anniversary of his tenure as head of the US defense department. Anniversary, so to speak. This date is already in full expectation, waiting. Doesn’t resemble anything? Is a solemn meeting expected? Concert? Surely. When there is no living thing, they begin to celebrate anniversaries that are useless. This is almost the law.
But there is no living thing. Yes, while the military of the USA and NATO trample on foreign land, but the trends are obvious. The contingent in Afghanistan, Iraq, Germany, Syria is declining. Everywhere. A delay in the withdrawal of troops (Syria) or their redeployment to a neighboring country (Germany - Poland) is nothing more than environmental resistance, an attempt by the military to slow down the execution of politically disadvantageous decisions.
But NATO is not about generals. Big uncles (and aunts) in civilian suits decide everything. And the military in brilliant uniforms only carry out their orders. This is their main valor. Where the current political leadership of the United States is heading is obvious: America must get out from wherever possible. Keeping his face, yes, but get out. The forces are not the same.
As usual, as the authority of the alpha male decreases, the entire vertical of the alliance cracked. The most striking example is relations between Turkey and Greece. Erdogan’s ambitions, skillfully fueled by new missile defense systems, and, importantly, the inability of the United States to resist this, brought the two NATO countries to the brink of civil war.
Internal conflict is a sure indicator of the crisis of the entire system.
Among the European countries participating in the alliance, everything is also bleak. For the third day in Brussels, EU heads of state and government have been unsuccessfully trying to agree on a seven-year budget for the Union’s economic recovery fund after a pandemic. They are all clearly not up to NATO now with its requisitions. And if you didn’t really pay before the pandemic, before the crisis, then why will they start paying now?
Nevertheless, the main thing here is the lack of political will in Washington. No wonder Merkel recently decided to directly name the problem: the US no longer wants to be a global leader, does not want to defend Europe. Now the inhabitants of the Old World will have to become adults again and seek salvation in multilateral (according to Merkel) unions. NATO, good bye?
It seems that we are witnessing a historical event - the beginning of the end of the alliance. Of course, it will exist for some time by inertia, but since the leaders of leading countries think in a different paradigm, the military bloc cannot be preserved as a real acting force. So Esper’s words about some new NATO life are an anachronism. Yesterday.
Everything suggests that the world is entering an era of cooperation and the struggle of all against all. Coalitions and unions will form in the most bizarre manner, proceeding from momentary interests, and just as quickly break up. In this new world, there will be no place for bulky structures whose participants are bound by hard commitments. Everyone wants to be their own masters.
And such a future may come suddenly. Who knows, maybe Russia (and even China) will have to save yesterday its self-named opponents from each other. But will the American Mark Esper save them - at least according to the NATO charter, even without it? Is not a fact.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.