There is no international or domestic organization that has not been forced to worsen the data on the economic impact that the coronavirus crisis will leave in Spain. The last to review its estimates has been BBVA Research. So far one of the most optimistic, has substantially aggravated its forecasts announcing that GDP will fall this year to 11.5%, which is a deviation of 3.5% from its last notice. The analysis shows a decline in the national economy similar to that forecast by Brussels in its summer report, which also warned that the situation was worse than expected. And the Airef warns today that the collapse may exceed 12%. In short: a black economic future that forces us to prepare .

Two causes have drawn this bleak horizon. The first is the harsh confinement decreed by Sánchez, one of the strictest and longest in Europe to alleviate his negligent initial response to the virus. The main consequence of a tool as exceptional as the state of alarm is that it completely paralyzed economic activity . Tourism, which contributes 12% of the national wealth, is the paradigmatic sector of what happened, as it has not only suffered like all the paralysis but also the initial delay and the subsequent contradictions with which the Executive has managed to reopen it. And that further hinders his recovery.

The second reason for this worsening forecast is closely related to the previous one. Now that the activity begins to awaken, entrepreneurs lack the necessary security to get ahead with vigor. The structural weakness of our productive system will harm a recovery that will not lead us to pre-crisis levels until 2022, which is a real blow for the middle classes. And this is largely because, instead of taking advantage of the boom season to establish the balance in the public accounts with fiscal responsibility and to undertake pending structural reforms, the Government has dedicated itself to squandering on electoral expenses to fish in clientelistic fishing grounds.

The crisis has attacked Spain, surprising it with undocumented duties. The countries of northern Europe know this and that is why they refuse to be more lax with the community aid package, being reluctant to rescue those who have not struggled to clean up their accounts without harsh conditions. Poor governance, together with the fiasco of Calviño's candidacy, leaves Spain in a position of manifest weakness in the negotiation. All of these factors demonstrate the obvious inability of this radical coalition to deal with the looming recession. With allies who see Europe as the men in black and an economic program that frightens those who must help us, where is Sánchez taking us?

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