• Empty Spain, Soria and Guadalajara monopolize the towns with the lowest population density

The population of Spain and Italy could decrease more than 50% at the end of this century, when both countries could also go back in the list of global economic powers , falling from the thirteenth and ninth places in 2017 to the twenty-eighth and twenty-fifth in 2100 , respectively.

This is indicated by a study prepared by the Institute of Health Metrics and Assessments (IHME) of the University of Washington, which offers global, regional and national projections on economy, population, mortality, fertility and migration in 195 countries.

Overall, the report, published Wednesday by The Lancet magazine , predicts that the world's population will peak at about 9.7 billion in 2064, but will drop to 8.8 billion by the end of the century , a decline that will be more than 50% in up to 23 countries, including Japan, Thailand, Italy and Spain.

In the vast majority of countries analyzed, 183 out of 195, the Total Fertility Rate (TTF) will be at levels that will not allow maintaining the size of their populations, unless "liberal immigration policies" are applied, the study warns .

In this context, India and China would suffer large declines in the segment of people of working age, which would slow their economic growth and cause changes in global power balances.

Although experts forecast that China will replace the United States in 2035 as the world's largest economy in terms of gross domestic product (GDP), it could experience a "rapid" demographic decline from 2050 , with a 1% reduction in its workforce. , from 950 million in 2017 to 357 million in 2100.

Thus, the American power would return to the top position around 2098, as long as, they point out, immigration continues to nurture its workforce.

By contrast, they highlight, India could be the only Asian country capable of protecting its workforce, despite the fact that the working population would fall from 762 million in 2017 to 578 million in 2100, which would place its GDP in third place, from the seventh from three years ago.

In Europe, the United Kingdom, Germany and France would remain within the 'top ten' at the end of the century, while Italy and Spain would fall to the twenty-fifth and twenty-eighth, after their populations passed a peak of 61 million in 2014 and 46 million. in 2017, respectively, to lows of 30.5 and 23 million in 2100.

Likewise, the increase in populations in the countries of Sub-Saharan Africa would reinforce the power of this region in global geopolitical matters, with a particularly dominant position for Nigeria.

The authors' projections for this country indicate that it will be the only one among the ten most populous in the world that will increase its workforce , going from 86 million in 2017 to 458 in 2100, an increase that would boost its GDP to ninth place, four more than three years ago.

"Continuing population growth over the century is no longer the most likely trajectory. This study offers governments of all countries an opportunity to begin to rethink their policies on immigration, workforce, and economic development to meet the challenges they present. demographic changes, "IHME Director Christopher Murray explains in a statement .

The authors recall that for those countries with high incomes and fertility rates unable to compensate for population loss, the "best solution" to maintain "current levels, economic growth and geopolitical security" involves the application of "migration policies open . " Their "social policies," they add, should also serve to "support families" so that they have the "desired number of children . "

"However, there is a very real danger that, in the face of declining populations, some countries may consider policies that restrict access to reproductive health services, with potentially devastating consequences. It is imperative that the freedom and rights of women are at the top of each government's development agenda, "concludes Murray.

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