Three questions about "violent plum" This year, the longest rainy season in 28 years may occur
　　. Will the Yangtze River Basin reproduce the "98" flood?

　　Since entering the plum this year, Wuhan has suffered from multiple rounds of heavy rain. As of July 11, the cumulative plum rain has reached 771.0 mm, ranking second in the same period in history and becoming the strongest "violent plum" after 2016. At the same time, as of July 11, the length of the rainy season in Wuhan has reached 34 days, the longest rainy season since 2015. Why is there so much rain this year? When will Wuhan be able to produce plums? Will it reproduce the "98" flood? On the 11th, a reporter from Changjiang Daily interviewed relevant meteorological experts from Hubei Province and Wuhan City and asked them to answer them one by one.

　　Question: Why is there a rare "violent plum"?　

　　The Wuhan Observatory's monitoring shows that since entering the plum on June 8, as of 17:00 on July 11, the accumulated plum rain in Wuhan has reached 771.0 millimeters. Compared with the average plum rain of 389.3 millimeters in the same period in the past 30 years, it is nearly double. It also exceeded the 659.3 mm plum rain in 1998, ranking second in the same period in history since 1951, second only to 878.6 mm in the same period in 2016.

　　Li Ming, chief forecaster of the Municipal Meteorological Observatory, said that more Meiyu this year is related to the weaker and more eastward subtropical high, which caused the southwest warm and humid air to continuously transport water vapor along the Yungui Plateau to the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River; on the other hand, Meiyu this year The cold air going south in the north of the season is also relatively strong. The cold and warm air just happens to meet on the narrow road in the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. ".

　　Second question: When does Wuhan "plum"?

　　It is reported that the perennial rainy season in Wuhan is about 20 days. In the past 30 years, there have been three years with more than 35 days, namely 48 days in 1991, 39 days in 1992 and 36 days in 2015.

　　According to statistics from the Meteorological Department, as of July 11, the length of the Meiyu period in Wuhan has reached 34 days. According to the Wuhan weather forecast, Wuhan will continue to have rainy weather in the past three days, which is likely to exceed the 36-day plum rain season in 2015 and become the longest plum rain season in nearly 28 years.

　　So when will the plum blossom in Wuhan this year, say goodbye to the "wet da da" weather? Li Ming said in an interview with the Changjiang Daily reporter that from a normal point of view, Wuhan started the plum process in early July, but according to the latest weather data analysis, on the 11th and 12th, our city has small to moderate rain and moderate to heavy rain, respectively ; 14 to 18 precipitation will continue. "Due to the long time, it is expected that in mid-July, it will still be impossible to determine whether or not to produce plums."

　　It is reported that according to the latest forecast of the Central Meteorological Observatory, in late July, the eastern rain belt of my country will be carried northwards from Huanghuai, North China to the Northeast, and there will be 4 to 8 days of high temperature in most parts of Jiangnan and central and eastern South China.

　　Third question: Will the "98" flood reappear this year?

　　According to the statistics of Hubei Provincial Hydrological Bureau, since entering Meimei, Hubei Province has continued to have rainy weather and heavy rain covered the whole province. As of July 9th, the amount of plum rain has reached 492.8 millimeters, surpassing the total plum rain in 1998 and ranking second in the past 34 years, second only to 2016.

　　According to experts from the Wuhan Regional Climate Center, the Yangtze River floods are not only related to rainfall, but also closely related to the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall. The cause of the floods in the whole basin in 1998 was mainly due to the superposition of two rainstorms in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River. In 1998, the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River experienced "second-degree plum" from late July to early August. Wuhan experienced a 285.7 mm heavy rain on July 21. Heavy rainfall in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River formed eight flood peaks. Formation of the 1998 flood.

　　An analysis by a meteorological expert in Hubei Province: "This year's Meiyu rains are unevenly distributed in time and space, and there is great uncertainty."

　　(Reporter Chen Yongquan from Changjiang Daily)

　　Meiyu

　　Accumulated 771.0 mm, ranking second in the same period in history

　　More than 1998 (659.3 mm)

　　Meiyu period

　　As of July 11, it has reached 34 days

　　The longest rainy season since 2015