Repeated epidemic situation, Beijing property market sales were sluggish in the first half of the year, demand was delayed

　　In June, the repeated epidemic in Beijing caused the property market on the road to recovery to slump again. Buyers delay the pace of home purchases, and the new and second-hand housing markets in Beijing have been affected to varying degrees. This will also be a challenge for developers that impact mid-year performance. How long will the impact of the epidemic last? What will be the direct impact on the Beijing property market?

　　Industry insiders said that the impact of this epidemic on the Beijing property market transaction is still difficult to judge, and it is necessary to look at the timetable for the epidemic to be completely controlled. But the demand for house purchases has not disappeared and will be released at some point in the future.

In the first half of the year, the number of second-hand housing nets reached a new low in six years

　　"Due to the impact of the epidemic, many communities are unable to see the house, and our recent transaction volume has not been able to, at least reduced by 2/3." A staff member from a second-hand housing agency store in Fengtai told the Beijing News reporter.

　　The Beijing epidemic occurred repeatedly, and Fengtai became the most risky area, and the property market in this area was also the first to be affected, especially the second-hand housing market, which was managed by some communities and closed.

　　On June 15th, the Beijing Municipal Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission issued a notice requesting to strengthen the epidemic prevention and control of Beijing housing leasing intermediaries. Stores located in high-risk areas should suspend all gathering activities. Since then, the Central Plains Real Estate, I Love My Home, Wheat Field, and 21st Century Real Estate have suspended the gathering activities of the stores that are classified as high-risk areas in the epidemic.

　　Affected by the epidemic, second-hand housing transactions in Beijing's Fengtai and Daxing areas have declined significantly. According to data from the Shell Research Institute, on the weekend of June 13 to June 14, the volume of Beijing chain homes fell by 17% from the average of the previous three weekends, and the Fengtai District fell by 23%; June 15 to June 18 The transaction volume of Beijing Chain Home declined by 45% from the same period of the previous week, and Fengtai District fell by 66%.

　　Regions such as Fengtai and Daxing also affect the trading volume of the entire Beijing market. In the past three days of the Dragon Boat Festival, Shell Institute data show that the average daily transaction volume of Beijing's second-hand housing decreased by 13.1% compared with the average daily transaction volume of the previous week and weekend.

　　"It has the greatest impact on second-hand housing transactions, and the number of houses has dropped sharply. The transaction volume has fallen by half, and now the transaction is basically half of the same period in May." For the impact of this wave of epidemic on the Beijing real estate market, Zhongyuan Real Estate Chief analyst Zhang Dawei told reporters in the Beijing News.

　　Guo Yi, the chief analyst of Heshuo, also said that at present, the high-risk areas of Fengtai, Daxing, and Haidian have closed their sales offices, and offline reception cannot be achieved. Second-hand housing has also been suspended. Before the risk is lifted, transactions in second-hand houses and new houses will be stalled in these relatively closed areas.

　　Statistics from the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center show that as of June 28, Beijing's second-hand housing network signed 14,673 units, compared with 16,125 units in May. It should be pointed out that no matter whether it is a second-hand house or a new house, the net sign is lagging. A part of the net sign data for the month comes from the transaction in the previous month.

　　The recurrence of the epidemic also affected the overall transaction volume in Beijing's second-hand housing market in the first half of 2020. Zhang Dawei summarized the trend of the housing market in the first half of 2020: the market was stable in January, the transaction was extremely shrinking from February to March, the market gradually recovered in April, and a very obvious Xiaoyangchun market appeared in May, and the second-hand housing high in the first half of June Operation, supply of blowouts for new residential buildings, but the market is sluggish again due to the impact of the epidemic.

　　Judging from the performance of the first half of the year, the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center show that as of June 28, from January to June this year, Beijing's second-hand housing network signed 63,990 units, and it is expected that the network will sign 65,000 units in the first half of the year. This may be the first half of the second-best deal for second-hand housing in Beijing in recent years. The data shows that from 2015 to the first half of 2019, the net sign data were 85051 sets, 135507 sets, 87601 sets, 76640 sets and 72415 sets. This is also the second worst half-year transaction since 2015, except for the second half of 2017.

New customers decrease, housing companies sprint mid-year performance and preferential treatment

　　How does the repeated epidemic affect the Beijing new housing market? According to data from Shell Research Institute, in the Dragon Boat Festival holiday in 2020, the transaction volume of newly built commercial housing in Beijing was 21,700 square meters, a decrease of 17.4% year-on-year in the three days of 2019 Dragon Boat Festival. According to statistics from Zhuge Property Search, the sales of newly built commercial housing in Beijing during the Dragon Boat Festival fell by 70% compared with the same period last month.

　　Pan Hao, a senior analyst at Shell Research Institute, believes that the decline in trading volume is mainly due to two aspects. First, affected by the epidemic, most areas of Beijing are in a restricted travel state, especially Daxing and Fengtai, which concentrated on the supply of products in the early stage, are high The risk zone has seriously affected the speed of subscribed customers' re-signing; on the other hand, the concentrated volume in the Beijing market since May has consumed some of the customers, making the Dragon Boat Festival this year even more under-influenced by the outbreak. In the long run, the epidemic will continue to have an impact on the market, and transactions will continue to remain low.

　　At the same time, the statistics of the Central Plains Real Estate Research Center show that as of June 28, 3,884 sets of new residential nets were signed in Beijing in June, compared with 2901, 1036, 1893, 3105 and 4166 sets from January to May. As of June 28, from January to June, a total of 16,585 sets of new residential buildings were signed online in Beijing, and 17,000 sets are expected to be signed online in the first half of the year. This is basically the same as 15,859 units in the first half of 2018 and 16,373 units in the first half of 2019.

　　Some insiders pointed out that the impact of the epidemic on the new house market will not be large in itself, and the demand will not disappear, but the short-term demand will slow down and postpone again. Some developers said that under the influence of the epidemic, the number of new customers in the recent project was only one hour in May.

　　This is a challenge for developers with periodic performance appraisals. The time point of the repeated epidemic situation happened to be in June. As the middle of the year approached, the developers faced pressure to hit the performance in the first half of the year. Increasing discounts and cutting prices will inevitably become one of the strategies. Prior to June 18th, many new deals in Beijing introduced preferential measures, including single-price houses, discounts, free services, and home purchase vouchers.

Industry: A new round of market warming is expected from August to September

　　How long will the impact of this epidemic last? What impact will it have on the Beijing property market, especially in the second half of the year? In this regard, Guo Yi said, "Beijing's epidemic is coming back, and the purchase of houses will inevitably continue to be delayed, but still that sentence, the demand for house purchases will not disappear, and at some point in the future, demand will still be released. Just like this year 4-5 In June, transactions in the Beijing market rebounded. After this round of outbreaks, everyone should still buy a house."

　　Zhang Dawei believes that the impact of this epidemic on the Beijing property market transaction is now difficult to judge, depending on the timetable for the epidemic to be completely controlled. If the local confirmed cases in June can return to zero, then the market is expected to recover in the second half of July. "The local confirmed cases can be quickly reset to zero, and the impact will be very small. Without zero, the market will be difficult to return to the level of May this year. "

　　Regarding market expectations for the second half of the year, Guo Yi said that the number of Beijing market signings should decline from June to July this year; however, a new round of market transaction warming and rebound in August-September can be expected.

　　In addition, Guo Yi believes that this time, the isolation of people living in high-risk areas in Beijing will once again expose the painful points of living in the living room, which will also stimulate their need to improve and upgrade their home purchases. This is a new opportunity for the market.

　　Beijing News reporter Duan Wenping Wang Hailiang