At the end of last week, something happened that, until then, for the whole five-year period was not just unprecedented, but even plainly unimaginable: for the first time since 2015, the Central Bank of Russia reduced the key rate by one percentage point at once - to 4.5% per annum. As officially announced, low inflation in the country and, most importantly, the need to create incentives for economic recovery after the coronavirus epidemic pushed the regulator to this.
What is most surprising: the sensation for the markets is, frankly, quite a radical decrease in the rate did not become. Moreover, the chairman of the Central Bank of Russia, Elvira Nabiullina, known for her fairly solid monetary position, warned about this at the beginning of this month.
And so, in its own way, an amazing development of events for an ordinary layman, in theory, should raise only one single question: is it really so bad with us?
Well, after all, there cannot be such that with us - with us! - everything was so, no less surprising, good ...
What can I say?
Of course, neither one nor the other happens: neither “very bad”, nor “very good”. What is happening is generally described little by habitual, "pre-crisis" logic. Therefore - let's understand.
Firstly, the crisis associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, in the Russian economy, of course, plunged, and plunged, quite to put it mildly, tangibly. It would just be foolish to deny.
Some backbone industries, and in general - if they didn’t cut out at all, just tried all this time to at least maintain themselves in a more or less viable state.
As they say, he is alive - and this in itself is very good.
And here you can not even mention long-suffering tourism, it’s enough to recall about, say, much more noticeable freight and passenger transport in the structure of the country's economy.
It would seem - what else can I talk about?
Still quite obvious ...
... Obviously, in fact, here is somewhat different.
As it turned out, for starters - the country's economy, of course, suffered, as if no one was arguing.
But - and here the following obligatory “second” begins: secondly, the country's economy suffered significantly lower than even fairly conservative forecasts (just as an example: prices in May increased by about 3% in annual terms, and this is below the target CBR, which accounted for 4% all in the same annual terms). This time.
And two looks even more surprising: the Russian economy not only suffered “below the forecast”, but is recovering immediately even now - with the uncontrolled, recall, hitherto “crisis-crisis” restrictions - much faster than such a recovery was predicted. Even the exchange rate has returned to the March "pre-crisis" corridor, which is quite, quite frankly, unexpected.
Especially considering the ongoing situation of uncertainty in the oil markets, on which this rate depended so tightly until recently: yes, the situation there seems to have begun to improve. But after all, she didn’t "straighten out", but so far she has just "started".
Just a dry statement: even the economic data published from the previous meeting of the Bank of Russia (held on April 24 of this year) turned out to be more favorable than the Central Bank itself had predicted. And at once in several key positions: both in the sure recovery of business activity in the country, and in the much faster “slowdown in inflation” as well.
And in this kind of situation, a radical reduction in the key interest rate of the Central Bank is an absolutely, specially emphasized decision, even for what is called “hard monetarists” it’s even realistic for itself. Moreover, somewhere and compelled: only not by any political will “from above”, wherever it is “above” - but at least in the IMF! - was not. A cold logic of events, the logic of the situation.
We quote the official comment of the Russian regulator itself:
“The risks to financial stability associated with the situation in global financial markets have decreased. Inflationary expectations of the population and business decreased. Under these conditions, there is a risk of a significant deviation of inflation down from the target of 4% in 2021. The decision at a key rate is aimed at limiting this risk and keeping inflation near 4%. ”
Naked, in general, pragmatics.
Moreover, even in the explanation of decision-making - solid, one can say terry, "monetarism." That is not the point.
The essence, excuse me, is all in the same “global instability”, including in the international financial markets, and in the instability of the system - and the consequences of decisions made in world markets at the moment are not predicted at all, this is a bare medical fact.
Who, for example, can now predict how global stock and currency markets will react to the entry into the American economy of unsecured trillions of “crisis” dollars, in fact, simultaneously? And by the way, how does the dollar itself survive this instantaneous emission enema, even on the scale of the American economy? Especially in the context of a political and racial struggle, flaring up on the eve of the American elections.
And now to discuss in this kind of situation, the weakening of the ruble projected in connection with the discount rate (it's simple: because of this, the yield on OFZs will be reduced by 10-15 basis points, respectively, and the dollar should rise in price by about a ruble and a half ) pretty, in general, funny: but does it make sense to strengthen the ruble against this very dollar and does it make sense at all these dollars without the harsh practical need to buy?
But the economy of our country, the Russian Federation, right now, on the way out of the crisis, is even needed: and not only because for a normal layman mortgage will probably fall in price. Although this, in general, is important (experts carefully forecast 5.5-6% per annum). And also because it - directly in the classics - stimulates export-oriented industries.
And these are oil and gas and coal that are largely determining for our budget. And the farmers, who are now in dire need of support, including, you will be surprised - and to conquer new markets: the crisis is also new opportunities. The truth is generally old and even slightly commonplace.
And the military-industrial complex, which, despite all the crises, is working stably and should be sold at least stably. And much more: to the fact that our products are gradually becoming quite competitive in many world markets, as well as to all the good, we quickly something, despite all kinds of "sanctions", and somehow even got used to it excessively.
In general, we hasten to reassure the stubborn monetarists with their eternal banner of "inflation targeting", who are accustomed to seeing a kind of "stronghold of a loyal financial school" in the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. And we ask you to moderate the joy of their no less loud opponents: the Central Bank did not “change orientation”, it operates in exactly the same paradigm as before.
Only the conditions have changed somewhat.
And even much more radical than the declining Central Bank discount rate.
But what is worth mentioning separately and with all possible respect is the fact that for almost the first time the Russian regulator did not react to events reactively. And - albeit extremely conservative and, perhaps, even too cautious - but, as they say, "tried to play ahead of the curve."
In advance, through the mouth of Elvira Nabiullina, it is true that he warned all market participants.
And this really is in many respects the experience of a step hitherto in our financial policy, which at best is accustomed to “reacting to trends”, is really unknown. Moreover, the experience, apparently, is quite compelled: differently in the modern, rapidly changing situation, most likely, now it will simply be impossible.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.