Turkish President Erdogan said that he agreed with President Trump on Libya and now it remains only to agree with President Putin. Meanwhile, President Putin spoke with Egypt's al-Sisi President and supported his ceasefire efforts. At the same time, for the first time in five months, the Libyans resumed oil production, but this did not last long - the militants appeared again stopped working.
It seems that the Iliad is being played in Libya. As in the epic of Homer, the two warring parties have been fighting for many years: either Haftar’s forces will reach the capital, or the army of Sarraj will beat them off. The one who is defeated at the moment agrees to a truce, but the one who wins does not want to hear about a truce. Now the Tripoli forces have an advantage, they recaptured the Haftar army and reached Sirte, an important point halfway between east and west of Libya.
Egyptian President Field Marshal al-Sisi tried to establish a truce between the parties. They agreed to end the fratricidal war. But at the last moment, Sarraj changed his mind. He decided that now, when the Turks were fighting on his side, when the Turkish warships approached the Libyan shores and the Turkish aviation was strong in the sky, he could take Sirte, and then move further east and take all of Libya under his control.
At the previous round of the struggle, General Haftar first agreed, and then refused the truce, which was supported by Germany and Russia. He believed that another small breakthrough - and Tripoli would be in his hands. However, military happiness is changeable. In recent days, Haftar has lost Tripoli airport, and then all the suburbs of the capital. Now he agrees to a truce, as was agreed in Cairo, but now the Tripolitans do not agree.
Many factors are involved in the Libyan war. Russia and the United States actively monitor what is happening, but maintain good business relations with both parties. Egypt is more likely to support its neighbors from Benghazi, the capital of eastern Libya, but also does not quarrel with Tripoli. Turkey completely stands for Tripoli, for the government of Sarraj, and no wonder: Erdogan and Sarraj signed an agreement on the division of the oil shelf in the Mediterranean, contrary to the interests of Greece and Cyprus. Turkey brought many militants from Syria, who agreed to bring them victory. As a bonus, the victorious militants will receive Turkish passports and will be able to leave for Europe, as the Syrians say, although no one has officially reported such agreements.
Russia believes that the parties need to come to an agreement and reconcile. All the same, no one succeeds in achieving a military victory. Theoretically, Turkey, the European Union, and the United States agree with Russia. But almost everything is not so simple. During the protracted war, there were times when Russia and the United States agreed to Haftar's victory. Let him win and establish some kind of peace in Libya. But Haftar did not succeed, despite all efforts.
So let's put up, advises Russia. But no, now Sarraj is hoping for military success, and his ministers are already firmly promising to break and tame Haftar.
There are no angels in Libya. Haftar was a minister at Gaddafi, then fled to the United States and spent many years there, then returned to the Islamic Benghazi and became the head of the Libyan national army. He is trying to maintain good relations with the United States and with Russia. Haftaru is much over seventy, he proclaimed himself president of Libya, but his claims are not taken seriously by his opponents. They say that he does not have an army, but a rabble of dissimilar combat detachments, which are not obeyed every time.
But Benghazi also has the Libyan parliament, the main source of legitimacy in the country.
The Sarraj government is recognized by the UN, but there is no unity in it. Even Tripoli fighters believe that the prime minister is unreliable, and expect any feint from him. But they don’t want to hand over their city and region to people from the east. Russian journalists were also held captive in Tripoli, who were accused of - clearly what - espionage. Other Russian specialists languished for a long time in Tripoli prisons.
Last year, they were planning to hold elections in Libya, but they did not. The son of the late Muammar, Saif Gaddafi, was considered the likely winner - perhaps that is why the current leaders of the east and west of Libya chose to slow down the elections.
Another serious factor involved in the Libyan showdown is the Israeli lobby in the United States. They believe that President Trump should roll up his sleeves and tackle Libya closely. Occupy, restore order, transfer to Israel a monopoly on Libyan oil, and most importantly - drive out Russia and Turkey from there. However, President Trump is not at all keen to send his soldiers to Libya. He has so many worries.
If Erdogan and Putin could find a common language in Libya, then progress would be made. This is not excluded - based on experience in Syria. But there is no reason for excessive optimism - it seems to Erdogan that he has now been sent a card, and he wants to play it to the maximum.
The parties to the Libyan conflict need to re-read the Iliad and understand that it is better to come to an agreement than to fight endlessly. Perhaps this understanding will come during the battles for Sirte, which promise to be difficult. Or maybe it won’t come even then.
The point of view of the author may not coincide with the position of the publisher.