China News Agency, Hong Kong, June 1st Question: Why does the United States talk about "sanctions" without hindering Hong Kong's economic development prospects?

  China News Agency reporter Liu Chenyao

  A few days ago, US politicians have repeatedly stated that they will impose so-called "sanctions" through unilateral changes to Hong Kong's trade policy. In the opinion of Hong Kong economic experts, if the plan can be implemented, it will not only affect Hong Kong's long-term economic development prospects, but the US side will need to weigh whether it will "self-destruct 800".

  Trade shocks and confidence shocks only exist in the short term

  In an exclusive interview with China News Service, Cheng Shi, chief economist and managing director of ICBC International, said that in the short term, the abolition of the special status of Hong Kong by the United States will only have some impact on Hong Kong's economy in terms of trade and confidence.

  Cheng Shi said that the trade and logistics industry is one of Hong Kong ’s four pillar industries, while the United States is Hong Kong ’s second largest export market. If Hong Kong loses its status as an independent customs zone, the cost of tariffs for exporting to the United States through Hong Kong will increase, and the volume of goods re-exported to the Mainland through Hong Kong will also decrease. Declining demand will have a certain impact on Hong Kong ’s trade and related professional services. The US move in the short term will also affect foreign investors' confidence in Hong Kong's investment. "Especially considering that Hong Kong's economy has experienced negative growth under the drag of the epidemic, this shock will lead to further pressure on market confidence." Cheng Shi said.

  The double shock may seem to have shocked the Hong Kong economy, but in fact it has not lasted long. Statistics show that goods produced in Hong Kong and exported to the US market each year account for less than 2% of Hong Kong's local manufacturing industry, with a value of only 3.7 billion Hong Kong dollars, accounting for less than 0.1% of Hong Kong's total exports. Chen Maobo, the Financial Secretary of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, said that even if the United States unilaterally cancels the special tariff treatment on Hong Kong, the actual impact on Hong Kong will be relatively small. The SAR Government has already made a judgment on this and formulated a response plan.

  Oriental Pearl is still attractive in the global trading market

  "Hong Kong participates in the World Trade Organization in the name of Hong Kong, China, and is regarded as an independent economy in the global trading system." Mai Cuicai, an associate professor in the Department of Finance and Decision Science at the Baptist University, told reporters from China News Agency that Hong Kong serves as an independent tariff Area, for the world are high-quality import and export and re-export options.

  Mai Cuicai takes the trade figures of Hong Kong and the United States in 2019 as an example. In 2019, the value of Hong Kong ’s imports from the United States amounted to 212.9 billion Hong Kong dollars, accounting for 4.8% of Hong Kong ’s total imports. The largest source of trade surplus. Mai Cuicai believes that policy changes may make it difficult for the United States to find alternative and better trade options. For Hong Kong consumers, they only need to stop buying American goods.

  Regarding the high-end sensitive technology products that the US may restrict imports, Zhuang Tailiang, associate professor of the Department of Economics of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, said that Hong Kong itself has a limited number of such products imported, and the United States has already begun to restrict Hong Kong from importing the most advanced technologies, not the most advanced technologies It is easy to find alternatives from other countries.

  Hong Kong's financial system is resilient

  The head of the United States announced on May 29 local time that it would "sanction" Hong Kong. On the first trading day thereafter, the Hong Kong stock market stopped falling and rose 771 points, or 3.36%, while Hong Kong saw no significant capital outflow. The exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar Has been close to the strong side exchange guarantee area. Chen Maobo believes that Hong Kong is "very calm," with sufficient capital, a stable banking system, and the status of an international financial center.

  In the industry's view, the United States should worry more about the survival of its financial companies in Hong Kong.

  Mai Cuicai said that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange has won the IPO (Initial Public Offering) for about 6 or 7 years in the past 10 years, and the number of new shares listed is also the top in the world. As more and more mainland high-quality companies come to Hong Kong for listing, the relevant actions of the US side may make the sponsorship status of US investment banks in the IPO untenable.

  Zhuang Tailiang asked the few American insurance companies that are currently making a lot of money in Hong Kong: If I lose the huge market of Hong Kong, can I have room to start my business?

  Cheng Shi believes that in the context of the intensification of the global trade game, the Chinese economy is actively adjusting its trade structure. As a super contact of the “Belt and Road”, Hong Kong will also receive new trade increases to compensate for the decline in trade with the United States. . At the same time, Hong Kong is expected to further integrate into the development of the Mainland, play a role in serving the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the “Belt and Road” initiative, and the status of financial centers and service industry centers will not be shaken. (Finish)