CAN 2021: why a postponement is plausible but not so simple

Text by: David Kalfa Follow

The hypothesis of a postponement of the next African Cup of Nations, scheduled from January 9 to February 6 in Cameroon, is gaining momentum, because of the Covid-19 pandemic. If postponing CAN 2021 to 2022 is possible, this option is not without risks. Explanations.

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Will the African Cup of Nations in Cameroon take place in 2021? After having to give up the 2019 edition because of delays, will Samuel Eto'o's country have to wait again, because of the Covid-19 this time? The possibility of postponing the next final phase, currently scheduled for January 9 to February 6, is gaining momentum. The main reason ? Uncertainties around the global health context and the international sports calendar in 2020.

Another consequence of the Coronavirus crisis. The CAN which was to be held in January 2021 in Cameroon should be postponed. The trend is for January 2022 or summer 2022. #RMCsport

Playing in January-February 2021 is still possible

There are notably four days of qualification for the CAN 2021 to be crammed by the end of the year. In the immediate, no reason to panic: with three international breaks (in September, October, then November) and therefore six possible dates, the African Football Confederation ( CAF ) has time to complete the qualifiers. And even if these end in November, organizing the tournament in January / February is playable.

Of course, two months to draw lots and allow qualified teams to locate in Cameroon, it would be very short. However, CAF had achieved this with a CAN 2015, however reassigned to Equatorial Guinea in November 2014 only. In addition, the Cairo-based body is more than used to working in emergencies. And she can adapt her level of requirement to the circumstances.

On the Confederation side, concordant sources therefore ensure that no decision on a postponement has yet been taken. An emergency committee meeting, which deals with hot files, is certainly scheduled for May 28. But CAN 2021 and its qualifications would not officially be on the agenda.

Maintain in 2021: a bet too risky?

The fact remains that a cancellation of international matches in September would make a very risky continuation. After having recommended the elimination of matches in June, the International Football Federation ( FIFA ) could indeed decide, at its next meetings in June, to do the same with the following FIFA dates.

Augustin Senghor, member of the CAF Executive Committee, warned on April 21 at the BBC microphone: “  We need several FIFA windows to complete the qualifications. And if we don't play in June or August, I think it will be impossible to play CAN in January. […] The CAF Executive Committee will have to take a decision which will certainly be postponed. No one can do anything if the conditions are not met. No one in the world can say that in September or November we will have won the battle against the coronavirus.  "

And, even supposing that football can be properly replayed in Europe, Asia and / or Africa within a few months, will players have plenty of time to come in national teams, under pressure from their employers (the clubs) and possible travel difficulties due to Covid travel restrictions?

Postpone to 2022, yes, but ...

In this context full of uncertainties, CAF and Cameroon may be tempted to postpone the 33rd African Cup of Nations to 2022. This would leave time for both parties to gauge the development of the Covid-19 pandemic. This would also make it possible to organize the African Championship of Nations, initially planned for April 2020, in January-February 2021.

However, reprogramming would pose many problems. First of all, the epidemiological situation in 2022 seems impossible to predict. Then, the football calendar for that year remains a headache, in particular because of a World Cup in Qatar supposed to be held from November 21 to December 18 (When will be held the main championships in which the African internationals play? ). The Cameroonians also assured that it was impossible to play football properly in June / July because of the rainy season ... Difficult to choose new dates for the African Cup in these conditions.

Lastly, a significant factor, moving such an event generally generates significant additional costs. "  We have experience with the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games postponed to 2021 ," explains sports economist and RMC consultant Pierre Rondeau.   There will be additional costs related to the postponement. We can integrate the idea that the upkeep and maintenance of infrastructure, the costs of reorganizing and reprinting tickets, renegotiating sponsors, TV rights and all related costs, will cost money. […] If we postpone this competition, all hotel, sports and other infrastructure reservations are postponed. Reservations are to be reimbursed, with the reorganization for all participants, organizers and actors of this event. There is also the reimbursement of providers, advertisers, broadcasters. […] Then there will be a reprint of all the tickets, all the pennants, all the goodies and other derivative products, all the press and marketing media for the event where CAN 2021 is indicated. […] All it costs money  . " For a CAF whose financial reserves have shrunk in recent months and for a Cameroon which has already invested several tens of billions of CFA francs in the African Cup of Nations, shifting the next CAN would not be painless ...

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