Mayotte, "against the times" of the metropolis which will begin its deconfinement, "needs the measures deployed in Alsace two months ago" to fight against the coronavirus, said Thursday the director of the Regional Health Agency ( ARS), former Minister Dominique Voynet. Prime Minister Edouard Philippe, who had already announced the postponement of the deconfinement for this overseas department where the virus is actively circulating, said Thursday that it should be "subject to special vigilance".
A point must be made on May 14 to consider a possible relaxation of containment, but "the deconfinement is practically done" on the island, acknowledged Dominique Voynet during a press point with national media.
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Almost more respected confinement on the island
According to her, "since the speech of Emmanuel Macron" initiating deconfinement and "since the beginning of Ramadan", confinement is almost no longer respected on the island, where 82% of the population lives below the poverty line. "There are people in the mosques", "crowds at the funeral", evening gatherings of young people around traditional boxing fights, she recalled, while saying she was "aware of a social reality complex "and" growing social unrest ".
Thursday, Mayotte had 854 cases (+112 in 48 hours), 47 hospitalizations (including 7 in intensive care) and 10 deaths. "Every two or three days, there is a doubling of the number of cases", due in part to the increase in tests conducted by the ARS, explained Dominique Voynet. "We see an increase in positive tests", which are around "30% to 45% per day", that is to say almost one in two tests positive.
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An epidemic peak estimated "between May 20 and May 30"
Consequently, the reproduction rate of the virus, which measures the number of new people infected by each infected person, is "currently around 1.6 in Mayotte", three times what it is in mainland France. But the tests are "limited by the availability in terms of reagents, swabs and tubes", she recognized, stressing the difficulty in bringing the material, because of the limitation of cargo flights (three per week), which must be shared with Reunion.
According to a statistical model developed for Mayotte, an epidemic peak is estimated "between 20 and 30 May". But this analysis was based on at least partial compliance with confinement. "If the deconfinement is faster and more general, we think we will have more cases, with a higher and more brutal wave", and "an epidemic plateau until July", explains Dominique Voynet.
The rise in power of the virus is accompanied by a "regular increase in the number of hospitalizations", but "more in medicine than in intensive care", she notes, because there are "few serious cases" for the moment. To keep room in medicine, and in the intensive care unit, which "is not full" but must also accommodate dengue patients, medical evacuations take place "every day" to Reunion, he said. she says. The deputy LR of Mayotte Mansour Kamardine pleaded Thursday on his side for a deconfinement at the same time as the metropolis.