The economic cost of the coronavirus in question

Audio 03:38

By: Guillaume Naudin Follow

Emmanuel Macron addresses this Monday evening to the French to tell them about the decisions of the executive for the aftermath of the coronavirus crisis and containment. It will in all likelihood be extended. But the longer it lasts, the more the question of its economic cost arises.

Publicity

" Whatever it costs ." When he announced the shutdown of France without saying the word containment, Emmanuel Macron was clear on this point. Containment would be expensive, but the cost would be borne by the state. Only then, since then, what was an idea has become a little more concrete every day. The French support plan, notably planned to finance partial unemployment measures, has gone from 45 billion at the start to 100 billion euros in recent days. The Banque de France has calculated that each fortnight of confinement costs 1.5 points of growth. The calculation is simple: one month: 3 points. Two months, as is clearly envisaged: 6 points. At the average growth of recent years, it would therefore take two or three years to return to the starting level.

Whole sectors under threat

This rough calculation is only valid if the economy can be re-ignited as easily as it has been extinguished. And it is far from acquired. It is even almost certain that this will not be the case. The State will support Air France and Renault or other large companies of interest considered superior for the country, and other companies as well. But many will simply disappear in silence and even with great dignity if we take the example of restaurateurs who provide free meals to caregivers. It is the smallest that are struck. And these are sometimes whole sectors. France is the first tourist destination in the world and it is difficult to believe that this disaster area will leave as if by magic for the summer season if the confinement is loosened. The NGO Oxfam fears that 500 million people will fall into poverty in the world. Before, as Medef asks, to ask yourself if you will have to work more, it is not useless to ask yourself who will be able to still work.

Industry ready to go

This is why economic officials are asking to restart. This is for example the case of the president of the UIMM, the federation of bosses of metallurgy, therefore of industry in the broad sense. For Philippe Darmayan, interviewed Sunday in the daily Le Parisien , industrial companies are ready to go. And work has been done to make this recovery possible under the safest conditions.

Others did not wait. Japanese automaker Toyota is restarting its Valenciennes plant to fulfill orders from customers who management says are waiting for their vehicles while the country is confined. Signs, especially DIY, which are not part of the list of essential shops, have also restarted part of their activity for the Easter weekend.

Dilemma

Remember barely a fortnight ago, Donald Trump, the American president said that the remedy, the containment, should not be worse than the evil, the Covid-19 pandemic. Given the health situation , he has since changed the order of his priorities to put health before the economy. Lombardy, Italy's most industrious region, is also the one that pays the highest price for the coronavirus with more than 10,000 deaths. The cause and effect link is difficult to establish, but it is not prohibited to ask the question of the influence of the revival of the activity on the health situation. This very difficult question is asked around the world. It is not only economic, it is ethical and even philosophical. And that is why we cannot answer it based on the cost / benefit ratio of future decisions.

Newsletter With the Daily Newsletter, find the headlines directly in your mailbox

Follow all international news by downloading the RFI application

• Economy
• Finance
• Industry
• Coronavirus