With the emergence of signs of a slowdown in the spread of the emerging corona virus, the coming days and weeks will witness an increase in economic and social pressures to reduce the quarantine measures imposed in many countries.
What are the conditions that must be met to get out of the house stone?
Epidemiologists are already anticipating this new stage, often voicing their concerns, and warning of any hasty lifting of isolation measures.
"A fatal return" of the epidemic
WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebrysos warned that "accelerating the lifting of restrictions could lead to a fatal return" of the epidemic. Further warnings were received that any premature optimism would cause a second wave of the epidemic.
And in France, the former head of the National Institute of Health and Medical Research, Christian Priestoh, said, "We like to show a lot of humility and caution about this virus because we have already sinned." "With a global pandemic of this magnitude, we do not see how things can miraculously return to normal," he told France Inter radio.
Mitigate measures
But in Europe, the continent most affected by the epidemic in terms of the number of deaths, which exceeds 70,000, several countries are already announcing a partial lift of the domestic quarantine.
Austria plans to reopen small stores after Easter, considering that a decline in the frequency of injuries is sufficient. Denmark will also reopen nurseries, kindergartens and primary schools next Wednesday, while the Czech government has softened its measures.
These countries follow the example of China, which lifted the strict health cordon imposed on the city of Wuhan, the focal point of the virus, on the eighth of this month, after the figures indicated that they had controlled the epidemic.
- "A little glimmer of light"
However, domestic stone remains tightly applied in the rest of Europe, including the United Kingdom, which was hit hard by the epidemic.
In France, the Director General of Health, Jerome Salomon, sees "a slight glimmer of light" with a slight decrease in the number of patients being transferred to the resuscitation departments, considering that the country is "about to flatten the curve of the epidemic, but at a very high level."
Spain and Italy, the highest-grossing countries in Europe, also appear on the threshold of “flattening the curve of the epidemic at a high level” with stable numbers or a slight decline, even though Spain is again registering an increase in the number of daily deaths.
Despite this, neither country risked reducing its measures, so Rome extended the general domestic quarantine until next May 3, while Madrid extended it until the 25th of this month. Ireland, Portugal and Belgium have also done this.
In France, President Emmanuel Macron, in a televised speech, on Monday evening, is expected to renew the instructions to the French "go home," but the question arises whether he will take risks and set a timetable for getting out of the isolation regime.
Going beyond the "flat trend"
Epidemiologist Antoine Flahau warned that "when a trend of flattening is reached, this does not mean that home quarantine can be lifted at a time when the measures taken have avoided overcrowding in hospitals."
Flaho - who heads the Institute of Public Health at the University of Geneva in Switzerland, speaking to France 2 network, said that the exit from domestic isolation can only happen later "when we see a decline" in the injuries.
And the researcher, Christian Bershoh, hopes that, "As of mid-May, we will be in a situation of declining velocity", the outbreak of the virus, which will allow a "gradual softening" of the measures.
But the head of the Scientific Council, which advises the French government on the epidemic, Jean-Francois Delphresi, warned: "We will not move from black to white, but from black to gray with the continuation of the stone especially for some population groups."
And he saw that «we can start discussing the post-stone stage. But the fundamental and fundamental factor is to continue the rigorous stone for several weeks. ”
Decreased infection
There are preconditions for lifting quarantine measures, first among them: a proven regression in serious cases as a result of infection of the emerging coronavirus in hospital resuscitation departments.
The goal is to allow medical staff to breathe after their intensive efforts, and to allow hospitals to reconfigure their stock of medical equipment and materials.
The second condition: the spread of infection should have decreased among the population, with the transmission rate being recorded without one, meaning that each infected person transmits the infection to less than another person, compared to 3.3 people at the beginning of the epidemic.
The third precondition is: the availability of a sufficient number of protective masks and infection detection analyzes, which will enable the virus to be closely monitored.
In France, the ability to detect injuries is expected to rise from the current 30,000 tests a day to 100,000, and possibly up to 150,000 at the end of April.
Unknown factors
New in this equation, which includes many unknown factors, the possibility of using new electronic tools to detect the movements of the injured and their contact with other people.
Paris is advancing cautiously in this area, while the German government is preparing to publish a mobile application inspired by the Singapore experience, to facilitate individual follow-up to individuals and to show the transmission chain.
One of the major unknown factors is how important "summer break" is in the spread of the new Corona virus. It is well known that viruses that attack the respiratory system are not generally suitable for the summer. For example, influenza does not spread after April in the northern hemisphere. Does this also apply to the emerging corona virus?
There are doubts on this subject, with the announcement of a significant increase in the number of injuries in the past days in Singapore as the temperature is currently around 30 degrees Celsius.
"If there is no summer break, it will be more complicated," said Antoine Flahau.