After three weeks of confinement, the executive is preparing for the deconfinement of the population. A complex exercise, which causes some hesitation at the highest peak in the state. "Deconfinement is much more difficult to organize than confinement", explains Nicolas Beytout.
Three weeks to the day, after the start of confinement, we can now see the hesitation on deconfinement jostling.
Talking deconfinement is the logical consequence of this kind of plateau that has been observed for several days now in the evolution of the epidemic. Of course, all the indicators remain red, but there has been a stabilization (or even a slight decrease) in the influx of patients in intensive care, and a drop in the number of daily deaths in hospital. Which led Martin Hirsch, the head of the APHP, the Paris hospitals, to talk about the end of confinement.
Yes, he explained that the confinement would probably evolve to become, I quote: "more subtle".
There, and everyone has noted that he is not talking about deconfinement but more subtle confinement. It is as if we were explaining to a prisoner not that he would be entitled to parole, but that his confinement would become more subtle. The reality is that this formula reflects the embarrassment of the government and the medical authorities to approach this period.
Deconfinement is much more difficult to organize than confinement. First of all, it will depend on the number of masks and the tests available. Then, different statuses can be created according to age, region of residence, whether or not you have been affected by the virus.
Well, it will be subtle. Except that for the moment, we are entering a fourth week of confinement. And I should say: at least a fourth week.
Exactly, hence the embarrassment of the government, with messages which, depending on the day, vary significantly. The specialist in variable geometry communication is Christophe Castaner. On the eve of the first departures for the Easter holidays, the Minister of the Interior threatened, made big eyes, promised the breakers of confinement to make them turn around at the toll, in short, he played the basic cop in boasting of the tremendous number of tickets that his police had drawn up.
And the day after the weekend, he explained on the contrary that the French "were among those who best respect confinement". If it was to congratulate his troops for having worked well, Christophe Castaner could have chosen something less infantilizing.
Isn't this the classic figure of the carrot and the stick?
Yes, of course. But suddenly, I do not find it very subtle. So, once again, it is Emmanuel Macron, and Edouard Philippe that we will have to turn to. There was a failure on the masks (not useful, not easy to wear, reserved for carers and finally gradually recommended to everyone). There was a failure on the tests (the mobilization of all the manufacturing and screening means in France was laborious). The political management of deconfinement will be the next challenge: how to avoid slackening among the French, how to free them from confinement in good order, how to revive the economic machine? The next 18 months will be played out there.