- Did Agnes Buzyn underestimate the risk of a coronavirus epidemic in France when she was still Minister of Health?
- This is what suggests a viral quote attributed to him on social networks, saying: "The risk of import from Wuhan is almost zero. The risk of spreading the coronavirus in the population is very low ”.
- If she had made similar comments in late January, she also noted that these data were likely to change very quickly.
While critics are heard, on social networks, around the government's lack of preparation for the arrival of the coronavirus in France, Agnès Buzyn is particularly targeted.
The candidate for mayor of Paris is indeed criticized for comments she would have made when she was still Minister of Health, and minimizing the danger posed by the virus in France.
“The risk of importing from Wuhan is almost zero. The risk of spreading the coronavirus in the population is very low, ”she would have said on January 20, according to this very shared visual on Twitter and Facebook.
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If the quotation is truncated, Agnès Buzyn had made close remarks on Friday January 24 - and not on January 20 - at the exit of a council of ministers broadcast live on Facebook.
“I will now take stock of the coronavirus in China, what we know, and what we don't know. […] More than 800 proven cases, more than 150 people hospitalized, for serious cases, 27 dead. 25 Chinese provinces are affected. […] 5 countries have listed cases: Thailand, Japan, the Republic of Korea, Taiwan, the United States. All cases had traveled to Wuhan, there are currently no cases in the European Union to my knowledge, "she said in the preamble on the subject (from 12'20 on the video archive live).
Before detailing (from 14'08): “In terms of risks for France, the import risk analyzes are regularly modeled by research teams. The risk of importing cases from Wuhan is moderate, it is now practically zero because the city is isolated. The risks of secondary cases around an imported case are very low and the risks of spreading the coronavirus are very low ”. And to add an important clarification: "This can obviously evolve in the coming days if it appears that more cities are concerned in China or more countries, in particular countries of the European Union".
At the time of his declarations, the coronavirus had not yet reached Europe - at least to the knowledge of the authorities. The same day, Inserm (National Institute of Health and Medical Research) also published a model "to estimate the risk of importation into Europe".
A risk estimated between 5% and 13%
This bulletin seems to have minimized, in its two scenarios (that of a low risk of spreading the epidemic and that of a high risk), the probability that a case will occur in France: "According to the researchers , the risk that at least one case will be imported into Europe in the first scenario is 33% and 70% in the second scenario. Given the air flows, the most exposed countries would be Germany and the United Kingdom. The risk that an infected passenger arrives in France is 5% in scenario 1 and 13% in scenario 2, and would mainly focus on airports in the Paris region. "
Inserm stressed, however, the purely hypothetical nature of this model, recalling that these "results are not predictions" but "simply identify where the risk lies and where it is necessary to deploy means of monitoring and increased prevention ”.
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- France
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- Agnes Buzyn
- Coronavirus
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- Inserm