Kosovo: new hope

Audio 4:12

By: Jean-Arnault Dérens

This February 17, Kosovo celebrates the anniversary of its independence, proclaimed 12 years ago, in 2008, but still partially recognized and still contested by Serbia. The country has just experienced a major political change with the coming to power of the sovereignist left movement Vetëvendosje. Will the ceremonies be marked by a new breath of hope?

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The victory of the opposition in the elections of October 6, 2019, had raised immense hope in Kosovo, cut in cut since the end of the war, more than twenty years ago, by the former guerrilla commanders of the KLA. However, it took almost four long months to form a coalition government between Vetëvendosje and the Democratic League of Kosovo, a center-right party with a very different political culture. Albin Kurti , the charismatic leader of Vetëvendosje finally became Prime Minister on February 3, but his room for maneuver is likely to find its limits quickly, because his coalition remains fragile, while international pressures are very strong…

The resumption of dialogue with Belgrade

Albin Kurti is clearly committed to it, but he specified that he would take the lead in the negotiation process, which has so far been led by the President of the Republic, Hashim Thaçi , the former spokesman for the guerrillas. . Since 2011, Belgrade and Pristina have been conducting a “ technical ” dialogue, with the mediation of the European Union. However, this very windy dialogue has been stalled for over a year. The initiative has been taken up by the United States, and President Trump's new special envoy for dialogue, Richard Grenell , has just pulled off the signing of an agreement providing for the restoration of air and rail links between Serbia and the Kosovo. The agreement was initialed by President Thaçi and his Serbian counterpart Vučić , but the Kosovo government said it had not been involved in the talks. Albin Kurti wants to resume dialogue on new bases and put Hashim Thaçi on the sidelines. However, the game is all the more complicated since the United States and the European Union do not necessarily play the partition.

Marked differences

Under the impulse, it seems, of President Trump, the United States wants to quickly snatch up a final agreement between the two countries, which could be based on exchanges of territories and population. However, this option, still considered by Hashim Thaçi and Aleksandar Vučić, is categorically rejected by the new government of Kosovo, as indeed by the vast majority of public opinion in the two countries.

On the European side, the situation is more confused. The option of a territorial exchange has always been rejected by Germany, because of the precedent that it could create, risking destabilizing the whole of the Balkans again. At the time, it turns out that the American envoy, Richard Grenell, is also his country's ambassador to Berlin, and he maintains notoriously strained relations with Chancellor Merkel . The problem is that the European Union, struck by Brexit, divided on the question of relaunching the process of enlargement to the Balkan countries, finds it difficult to speak with a loud voice and to be heard. The new European High Representative for Foreign Policy, Josp Borrel, visited Belgrade and Pristina at the end of January. But it turns out that he is from Spain, which still does not recognize independence which does not make things easier…

In reality, the destiny of Kosovo is once again at the heart of a complex showdown. In addition to internal political divisions, there are those of the international community. In this deleterious context, Albin Kurti, who claims a dialogue of equals with Serbia, will find it difficult to impose himself, while the population of Kosovo, increasingly disillusioned, massively takes the road of the exodus to Western Europe.

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• Kosovo
• European Union

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