Up to 26 degrees in February ... But what's going on?

• A remarkable mildness settled over France this winter, with temperatures above 25 ° C in the south of the country, according to Météo-France.
• The "sweet peak" was planned for this Monday, with 25 ° C in Tarbes, 26 ° C in Perpignan, 26 ° C or 27 ° C locally in the Basque Country.
• A situation that will be more and more frequent in the coming years, according to Olivier Proust, forecaster at Météo-France.

Temperatures to wander in T-shirts and a thermometer worthy of a month of June… Winter hadn't gotten us used to that. New heat records were recorded this Monday during an "exceptional" episode of winter sweetness in France: 26.6 ° C in Biarritz (Pyrénées-Atlantiques), 25.8 ° C in Fréjus (Var ) and 22.7 ° C at Hyères.

If a drop in temperatures is expected for the weekend, winter 2020 should be generally milder than normal. An exceptional situation which should become more and more frequent, as explains Olivier Proust, forecaster at Météo France.

New temperature records beaten upwards, the surface of the globe warming ... this is what Europe is going through this winter.

In the long term, alarming consequences for biodiversity are to be feared. One watchword: #MobilizationGénérale https://t.co/Oan0EKttLq pic.twitter.com/3Qig5PxBxj

How to explain this wave of sweetness which strikes the south of the country?

As of Sunday, temperatures above 25 ° C were measured in the south of the country: a "mild peak" was measured on Monday, with 25 ° C in Tarbes, 26 ° C in Perpignan, values ​​close to average of a month of June. "This sweetness is remarkable, these are exceptional levels for the beginning of February, but we know very well how to explain where it comes from: we have seen the arrival of a soft and humid subtropical air mass from west-southwest which has circulated this weekend from Morocco to the south of France, under a vast high pressure. It is supplied with fresh air, ”adds the meteorologist.

As expected, temperatures outside the norm for February 3 with a maximum of 26.6 ° C in #Biarritz, almost 26 in the POs and 27 ° C in Seillans in the #Var. Generally more than 20 out of relief in the south. pic.twitter.com/0hxn80QMhF

How to explain the sudden drop in temperatures expected in the coming days?

In the middle of the week, the temperatures will drop, losing in places up to 10 degrees compared to the previous day, indicates Météo France, with maximums of 9 to 14 ° C from Brittany to the Pyrenees and from 12 to 17 ° C on around the Mediterranean. A sudden drop in mercury that doesn't surprise the forecaster. "It is a fairly classic phenomenon of air mass contrasts," recalls Olivier Proust. In summary: the famous mass of subtropical air, which brings us high temperatures, will encounter a current of unstable cold air and carrying showers located in ambush over northern Europe. "It will give colder temperatures tomorrow Tuesday, when this northwest air mass will plunge over the country. We will feel the difference. But this sudden fall will not make us go below the seasonal levels, ”he nuances. In most regions, temperatures will still remain above seasonal norms.

Can this cause mountain disturbances in particular?

This mild episode increases the risk of avalanches. "Snowy coats are more delicate, more unstable, with this marked warmth," explains the forecaster. In the coming days, we should expect "good weather in the Alps, with wind and even a little snow." That means that we will have to stay informed about the risks of avalanches, ”he warns.

In an extremely mild context for the season, the risk of # avalanche, marked on the #Alps today (risk index 3/5), will increase this weekend in parallel with the increase in the rain / snow limit (rain possible up to 2600 m Sunday).
⤵️https: //t.co/pJloTHUJYL pic.twitter.com/D5bwkawaB6

Should we expect increasingly frequent mild episodes in winter?

In the context of climate change, what winter should we expect for tomorrow? "Be careful, we stay in winter, so we will face situations that we already know, but with higher temperatures", explains Olivier Proust. In this context, “it will be more and more recurrent to reach these levels of sweetness. We have already known mild temperatures in winter, but now we are going towards an upsurge of broken records, with a notch more in terms of temperature. "

And the 2019-2020 statements confirm this theory. These months of December and January constitute the second hottest start to winter since at least 1900, behind the start of winter 2015-2016, according to Météo-France. Over these two months, the national average temperature stood at 7.6 ° C, "a positive anomaly of 2.3 degrees above the climatological average over this period which is 5.3 ° C".

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