New Coronavirus What happens in the future?

New Coronavirus What happens in the future? January 31, 22:49

A new type of coronavirus that spreads mainly in China. WHO = The World Health Organization has declared a "public health emergency of international concern". Human-to-human transmission has been confirmed in Japan, and what will happen to the new coronavirus in the future?

What is the current situation?

It is important to take measures against infectious diseases, especially when a new infectious disease occurs, to grasp the current situation and take measures appropriate to each situation.

What is Japan's situation as of January 31?

In a press conference at the time of declaring an “emergency situation,” WHO reported that the number of new coronaviruses increased in mainland China, but the number of patients was relatively small overseas, and most of them had stayed in Wuhan, China. Or who contacted someone who had a history of staying.

Although human-to-human transmission has been confirmed in Japan, it is known that all of them were in contact with travelers from Wuhan and infected individuals.

It is still at the stage where containment is possible, as long as you know where and how you got infected.

At present, other than mainland China, including Japan, is at this stage.

What's next?

In Japan, the next stage is when infection is confirmed in people who have never visited infected areas such as China and Wuhan, and who have not been in contact with infected people.

At this stage, there is a possibility that the infection has already spread in Japan, and the effectiveness of so-called waterfront measures is considered to be low.

At the time of the new influenza in 2009, the first patient in Japan was confirmed among those who returned from overseas, and about a week later, an infected person who had no history of traveling abroad was identified. And one week later, the number of confirmed cases nationwide exceeded 300.

In response, the focus shifted from measures to prevent national measures at the waterfront to measures to prevent the spread of infection, such as by improving medical systems.

This new coronavirus may have a similar response.

What is the domestic fashion?

The new coronavirus is currently thought to be as contagious as influenza.

Looking at how many people spread a single patient, the new coronavirus estimates the WHO to be between 1.4 and 2.5, and the Chinese research group has also announced that it will be 2.2.

Influenza is said to be "about 2 to 3 people", so it is about the same number.

If this figure falls below "one person", the spread of the infection is expected to end.

When the epidemic spreads

If the outbreak of the new coronavirus spreads, many patients are expected to visit medical institutions.

Even during the 2009 influenza epidemic, it became a long line, especially at holiday clinics. Also, normal flu is still in the midst of the epidemic, and medical institutions are the busiest period of the year.

Anxiety about the new coronavirus may cause many people to rush to a local medical institution at once, which could be as confusing as the 2009 influenza pandemic.

Although it is thought that many people have relatively mild symptoms of the new coronavirus this time, some people will become severely ill.

Confusion over medical institutions has raised concerns about how to deal with severely ill people and affect other routine medical practices.

This is not the time when infection is spreading in Japan, but it is important that the government and other related organizations now consider how to deal with it, assuming that such a situation would occur if it spreads in Japan. .