- The mobilization against the pension reform explodes all records, but the government does not seem to fold.
- Do the weights of numbers and of the street still have a value in a balance of power against the Elysée?
- For Xavier Crettiez, professor of political science and sociologist of social protests and revolutions, explains the importance of the number, but also of other means to last a struggle.
A strike almost record in duration, days of mobilizations followed, a refusal of the Christmas truce ... And yet the government remains impassive and firm, announcing that the pension reform would be maintained. While the day of Saturday can possibly count on more demonstrators because of the weekend, the question arises: is being numerous on the street still useful in the current balance of power?
Xavier Crettiez, professor of political science and sociologist of social protests and revolutions, wants to be reassuring for the strikers: yes, the number still matters, but be careful not to overestimate it.
Does the number of protesters have less impact than on the government retreat than in the past?
Already, it should be remembered that not all the demonstrations are intended to make the government give in. We must distinguish four main types of demonstration before understanding the aim and the maneuver of the government: first there is the crisis manifestation, it is rare but marks history and takes part in a turning point in the country, c is for example May 1968 or February 6, 1934.
Then there is the routine or traditional demonstration, which aims to stage the politicization of the country. We can cite for example May 1, this is not intended to reform the government, just to recall the existence of unions or the class struggle.
There are also events put on the agenda, where it is a question of putting a problem on the agenda. Demonstrations against feminicides recently put this issue on the political calendar. Finally, the fourth, the manifestation of negotiation in which it is necessary to influence the National Assembly or the government. This is the one we are talking about at the moment.
This mobilization is struggling to reach its goal, while the days of mobilization follow one another. Why is the government adamant?
It is wrong to say that the government remained completely inert in the face of the mobilization. He already put a lot of water in his wine, with a lot of special diets reintroduced into his supposedly universal service. Not sure there would be as many without the protests at the start. Also, I wouldn't be surprised if the government ended up giving in on the pivotal age.
So yes, the number has real political weight, even today. Just imagine if fifteen million French people demonstrated, who would think that the government would not give up? Which brings us to another question: yes the number is enough, but from when?
We would tend to overestimate the size of the number of demonstrators?
The number must always be put into perspective. We are not talking about millions of people. Even when SNCF mobilizes en masse, this concerns 5% of its total staff. In France, the percentage of unionized workers is 11%, compared to 23% for the European average, 70% for Sweden or 26% for the United Kingdom. In addition, unlike England or Germany, which have only one large union, unionism in France is very fragmented with five large unions. It is therefore much more difficult to mobilize large forces in France. The government is also playing on it, and knows that if it recovers the CFDT and Unsa, the demonstrations will be even less important.
So the number of mobilized retains an influence?
We are in a democracy and the number rules. Moreover, it was during the first mobilizations against pension reform that there were the most concessions from the government, when the mobilizations were most numerous. Figures like yesterday are less likely to move the lines. So this is proof that numbers matter. It is enough to see the battle that is played out on the counting in demonstration between the government figures, the protesters' figures and now the Occurrence figures. This is all the more important since if the population has the impression that the number is completely useless, it will go on to violence.
Violence is sometimes sometimes seen as the only way to make the government yield ...
Violence can be a very useful resource for protest, but it is very complicated to use. The concessions on "yellow vests" were obtained less by their number than by the violence of the movement. Besides, when we talk about mobilization that does not make the government back down, this is also completely false. The state has released eight billion euros, we can not say that it is nothing. Not to mention the fact that the "yellow vests" have also made it possible to put several questions on the table, such as lost territory or the malaise of the lower middle class.
But this violence can be completely counterproductive if it goes too far. We also saw it with the "yellow vests", for example during the sacking of the Arc de Triomphe, which completely lost public opinion.
Are there other ways?
Violence is far from the only resource. Victimization, staging, celebrities can also tip the scales of an event. The fight against feminicides or sexism was able to count on the support of several important personalities. Another example, this time on the symbolic aspect, when the activists of Act-up put a giant hood in 1993 on the obelisk. They were 35 during this operation, and at the same time a demonstration of the CGT gathered 80,000 people. The enclosure of the obelisk made much more talk, even making the front pages of several international news. This is proof that other strategies work outside of numbers.
Faced with the erosion of figures, should the mobilization against pension reform lean towards these alternative means?
This is the eternal problem of mobilizations in France, they always end up withering for lack of funding for the strikers. Unions are increasingly aware of the need to move on, and will learn from those who cannot strike.
For example, the mobilizations of the peasants are historically more violent, they make much more commando actions because a strike for them does not make sense, that would amount to letting their fields rot or not taking care of their animals any more. They will favor the fact of depositing manure on an LREM residence, blocking roads or the ring road. Given the cost of a strike, it is increasingly likely that unions will in turn turn to other actions.
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