“Niche” Policy Decides President: January 10 19:02

"Reelection First" President Trump appeared to fumble over a certain problem.

It's not an economy, it's not a "wall" along the border, it's a fine, or "niche", policy of "e-cigarette regulation" that lies in the gap between major issues.
Why…. I searched for the background. (Washington Bureau reporter Takeshi Kurihara)

"Do something before it's too late!"

The motive was that of Mrs. Melania.

Last September. In response to Mrs. Melania's intention to worry that her 13-year-old son has become interested in electronic cigarettes, Trump has launched a policy to ban the sale of electronic cigarettes, which are particularly popular among young people.

Healthcare suspects caused by e-cigarettes were reported one after another, and were welcomed mainly by parents who had young children.

Regulation of watering

However, Trump withdrew his policy shortly thereafter.

If you want to hear the public's voices more closely, in November you agree with regulations that claim "health damage to young people is serious," while others say "regulations will spread illegal products and lose employment." We invited both opponents to the White House to hear their opinions.

And this is January.
The Trump administration has announced measures to ban the sale of e-cigarette cartridges with fruit and other scents.

However, cartridges such as menthol can still be purchased at convenience stores, and refillable products that allow users to add ingredients are not subject to regulations. For this reason, the medical community and others have strictly criticized the regulation as being watered down.

Miscalculation of President

Why did President Trump review the policy he once set out?

He decided that stricter restrictions on e-cigarettes would leave e-cigarette enthusiasts away from Trump in the November presidential election.

According to a survey conducted by a private opinion poll company last September, 8% of Americans aged 18 and over answered that they used electronic cigarettes within a week.

Meanwhile, in 17 states that had less than 10 points of a vote with Democrat Clinton in the last presidential election, another poll targeting e-cigarette enthusiasts found that 83% of voters said that e-cigarettes Respondents will only use one point to determine where to vote.

So-called "single issue voters".

ATR, a conservative lobbying group in the U.S. that has a significant influence on the Republican election strategy, said that the policy on e-cigarette regulation will be the decisive factor in deciding whether to win or lose in elections, especially in the state of war. Analyze that it could be

In the last presidential election, Trump won by winning three states: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. The gap between the three states is within one point.

In the meantime, if "single-issue voters" over fine-grained, niche policies like "e-cigarette regulation," which is in the middle of a major controversy, if they change their voting behavior at all, the election results of the three states, In turn, this could change the election results for the entire United States.

In the land of close battle

Last December 18th.
On the day that the US House of Representatives impeached Trump as the third president in American history, Trump held a rally for supporters in one of the most important states in this election, Michigan. Was open.

I heard e-cigarette opponents gather at the rally, and I visited the southern state town of Battle Creek.

Outside the venue is 10 degrees below freezing. The dripping runny nose was freezing cold, and there were people protesting with the sign “WE VAPE WE VOTE” (= vote for electronic cigarettes).

One of them, Mark Slith, runs an e-cigarette retailer in the state.
Claims himself as a single-issue voter for e-cigarette regulations.

Mark Sliss: "Some people around me have stopped cigarettes thanks to e-cigarettes. President Trump won Michigan by more than 10,000 in the last election. But e-cigarette lovers There are hundreds of thousands of people in the state. You don't want to look down on us. "

He said he had voted for Mr. Trump in the last election, but he is also considering voting for a Democratic candidate, depending on President's response to e-cigarettes.

Niche policy is key

By the way, voting in a single issue is not a new voting action. There are several single issues in the United States that can be described as "classic", such as abortions and gun restrictions.

However, such pre-existing social issues have been debated in U.S. society, and both Republicans and Democrats have established political parties, making it difficult for candidates to appeal and to change supporting parties. Is.

ATR Paul is concerned about the situation where "interest in the regulation of e-cigarettes" is not an issue that divides national opinion with only a few percent of the people concerned and could affect the outcome of the US presidential election.・ Blair points out:

Paul Blair: "As a result of political divide in American society, niche policy agendas have become increasingly important. Even in the close states, where 5,000 to 10,000 votes are won or lost, they are even the key to victory."

In addition to e-cigarettes, Mr. Blair works through the Internet, such as the `` home school support '' that provides education at home without going to school, and a smartphone dispatch service that makes it difficult to handle whether it is a sole proprietorship or an employee. He said that regulations on the "gig economy" under contract could be a single issue.

As a result of the fragmentation of society and the consolidation of both sides in a state of opposition, the presence and importance of niche single issues that have emerged in society in recent years have increased.

And in some cases, it can be a casting boat in elections.

Democracy sarcastic

The U.S. presidential election is not a so-called popular vote, which simply adds the number of votes obtained in 50 states, but basically the candidate with the highest number of votes in each state is assigned to that state "

The irony of American democracy, therefore, is that niche single issues in some of the war states can affect the outcome of the US presidential election.

Is this the end of the fragmented society facing the United States?

It may be a debate that puts a step in the traditional US presidential election mechanism, and thus the democracy itself.

Washington branch reporter Takeshi Kurihara