The rise of the extreme right in Spain .. Is it the beginning of the disintegration of the Kingdom of the Bourbon?

An unprecedented rise
Balkanization of the political scene
Catalonia separators

The black scenario that we feared here occurred in Spain more than five years ago, when we felt the initial signs of a major transformation in the medium and long term, making us almost certain that the face of Europe will change dramatically in the next decade, and that the beginning of this will be Spain; but we did not imagine that change would be so ugly, nor so fast that even the people of the political solution and contract in the country were amazed.

The political earthquake that struck Spain on November 10, 2019, in which the right-wing extremist Fox party occupied the third place in parliament with 52 seats in the lower chamber and more than 3.6 million votes, and the fragmentation of the left forces; Only the product of serious cracks inflicted on the construction of the major political forces in the country, I mean here the Popular Party and the Socialist Labor Party.

Several external factors, such as the economic crisis that has plagued the country since 2008, separatist movements in the Catalan and Basque regions, and internal issues such as financial corruption scandals to the right and left, have led to the balkanization of the political arena, and the emergence of new actors who are controlling the political scene by obstructing any consensus. Horizontal major.

An unprecedented rise
On November 9, 2019, just before the Spanish legislative elections, it was clear - without the slightest mistake or suspicion - that the far-right had won in its comprehensive sense.

Unfortunately, the extreme right - the Fox Party and the Popular Party (the biological father of the Fox Party) - has so terribly influenced the political landscape that, in just a few months, these two parties have transformed the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party - which currently leads the caretaker government - To a right-wing party in its content, slogans and electoral promises.

Regardless of the technical results that later gave great progress to the "Medieval" Fox Party (I would describe it as deriving its rhetoric, references, philosophy, and slogans from the wars of extermination against medieval Spanish Muslims), the Spanish political landscape is in serious deviation to the right, and all Parties - including the Socialists - have grown to show some of them "more patriotic" and able to rein in the separatist tide in the territory of Catalonia.

The right-wing parties were able to exploit the political crisis in the region of Catalonia and the unprecedented violence it witnessed, following the sentencing of separatist leaders in October 2019 with heavy sentences, after they organized a self-determination referendum on 1 October 2017, turning the electoral battlefield into a trap. All political parties, especially the Socialist Party, fell.

The leader of the Socialist Party, Pedro Sanchez, fell into the trap and, during the election campaign, appeared to be leading a right-wing party through slogans and promises of further escalation in the territory of Catalonia, such as preventing popular referendums for self-determination by force of law, resorting to more rigor and use of force instead. The search for political solutions The region and the country avoided a political crisis, which could lead to the disintegration of the "Bourbon Kingdom" ruled by King Felipe VI.

Unfortunately, the guesses that we feared and feared more than two million Muslims in Spain, and feared by all the democratic parties and nationalities that make up a large proportion of the Spanish community, which seeks independence from Spain, especially the Catalans and Basques, where Fox Party was able to double the number of seats obtained in elections April 2019, in the lower chamber of the Spanish Parliament, jumped from 24 seats to 52 seats out of 350 seats, and became the third political force after the Socialist Labor Party with 120 seats and the right-wing Popular Party with 88 seats.

Balkanization of the political scene
Since the democratization of the country in 1975 following the death of dictator Francisco Franco, the Spaniards have become accustomed to rotating and polarizing the conduct of the country. The Spanish Socialist Workers' Party and the Popular Party, which has undergone several transformations during its political course, have assumed the premiership. Or that an absolute majority in legislative elections.

But the era of absolute majorities and political rotation is gone. From the womb of the economic and social crisis - which has plagued the country for more than a decade - or rather from the womb of the Socialist Workers' Party, the radical leftist Podemos party, which everyone thought was merely a passing wave and fashion, emerged following the sit-ins of 15 Amy or May 15. 2011, while the days have proven to be a mainstream in Spanish society.

From the womb of Bodimus, the Mas Pais party came out just weeks before the November 2019 elections, following purely personal disagreements between party leaders Pablo Iglesias and Inigo Irichon, who favored the establishment of his own party, with the result of the fragmentation of the forces of the left.

In parallel with the fragmentation of the left, the Spanish right has been living for more than a decade in a kind of "position war" between the far-right and the center-left within the Popular Party. Ciudadanos (citizens), followed by the far-right "Fox" party, both emerged from the womb of the Popular Party.

Over the past 10 years, the Ciudadanos party has filled the void in the center of the political landscape, making it the third political force in the country after the Socialist Party and the Popular Party, with 57 seats in the lower chamber of parliament.

The leader of the Ciudanos party, the young leader Albert Rivera, was tempted by the great progress of his party, and began dreaming of removing the Popular Party from the leadership of the Spanish right and occupying his place in parliament, but he missed the road.

Rivera could have averted a political crisis if he had accepted an alliance with the Socialist Party to form a government in the aftermath of the April 2019 elections, but he fell into the trap of the far right and entered the "most patriotic" bids against separatist movements, leading to new elections in November following the failure of the leader of the Socialist Party, which issued the April 2019 elections, to form a government.

The result of last month's elections was disastrous for Ciudanos. It lost 47 seats and only 10 seats in the lower chamber of parliament, prompting its leader Albert Rivera to resign and retire from politics. All these seats and the votes of voters moved to the Fox Party, which won the bet of extremism in the face of the other right-wing currents.

The collapse of Ciudanos confirms the base of curse that has haunted the centrist parties since the country entered the era of democracy.All the center-right parties, ranging from the Union of Democratic Center to the Union for Progress and Democracy, founded by veteran right-wing politician Rosa Diath, have been wandering between life and death.

The difficulty of defining the concept of the political center, filled with moderate liberal discourse and programs, and then the deviation of the leadership of these parties from the center line, all factors led to the collapse of all attempts to build parties of the center-right in Spain.

Catalonia separators
The rise of the extreme right so quickly and forcefully frightened all political actors in Spain, prompting the Socialist Workers' Party and the radical leftist Podemos party, which finished fourth with 35 seats, to sign an agreement to form a coalition government, less than 48 hours after the results of the ballot were announced. The leader of the Socialist Party, Pedro Sanchez, had previously insisted that he would "not close his eyelid if he accepted Bodimos as a partner in a leftist government."

The total number of seats won by the Socialist Party and the Podemos Party to form a "leftist government" is 155, but the absolute majority is 176 out of 350. Pedro Sanchez therefore needs to include some small nationalist parties, but the main condition is the abstention of the Catalan Republican Socialist Party ( He has 13 seats in the lower chamber - which seeks Catalonia's independence from the "Bourbon Kingdom" - from voting during a vote of confidence in parliament, in order to form a minority government.

The Catalan Republican Socialist Party, whose leader Oriol Junckeras was jailed and sentenced to 13 years in prison for incitement to rebellion and misuse of public funds after organizing a referendum on Catalan self-determination, confirmed that he would not allow this government to be formed unless Pedro Sanchez acknowledged the existence of " Political crisis "in the territory of Catalonia, and sat at the negotiating table to find" political solutions "to the crisis, instead of" security and judicial repression practiced by the Spanish state against the Catalans. "

Pedro Sánchez will be able to form a coalition government only if he makes concessions to the separatist parties in the territory of Catalonia, and any concession affecting the territorial integrity of the country will only serve the interest of the far-right Fox Party, which has established itself as a defender and defender of the unity of Spain and its constitution and property. Failure to get the country out of the political crisis is worsening for a third consecutive premature election, a scenario more in the interests of the far right.

Whether it is in favor of the separatist parties or the Spanish state in the battle of bone breaking now under way in the territory of Catalonia, all indications are that the features of Spain will change significantly in the coming years, but the extent and shape of this change depends on the ability of political parties and state institutions to Creating innovative political solutions to avoid "disintegration of the Bourbon Kingdom".