In fact, of course, all this (in its own way absolutely wonderful) hysteria around the completion of the Russian-European Nord Stream 2 project, which has risen in recent days in the information and political space controlled by the Anglo-Saxon and other satellite media, is by no means an accidental mental fluctuation Western political and economic consciousness. Even despite the medical fact, in fact, that at the current stage of the construction of Nord Stream 2 it already reminds me of a well-known (Soviet one) anecdote about the girl Dusya, her kidneys and Georgian mineral water.
And one must be extremely naive, even, one might say, a virgin person, in order to think that the customers of the noise themselves do not understand this: they understand, moreover, perfectly. For something, and people in the West know how to count money simply superbly, despite all the apparent angularity in any other issues. It seems that, judging by everything, the current agenda itself already poses some completely different tasks that are not directly related to the implementation of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline: there’s already nothing (especially after the last Danish permit) to catch anyone and this’s how It’s rather stupid not to understand.
Actually, everything is simple: the battle for European energy markets is entering its final phase. And with all that is called, respect, the Nord Stream 2 project constantly in the spotlight of the public in this global, multifaceted and extremely complex confrontation is just one, randomly turned in focus, important, even somewhere, it can be said, determining. But, in fact, alas, it’s still just an episode.
And while the Russian senators in absentia, habitually already and languidly quarrel with their American counterpart Jim Risch, who proposed including sanctions against Nord Stream 2 in the US defense budget for the new year 2020, the old 2019 year is coming to an end. And with it comes to an end, and, for example, the current transit agreement for gas supplies to the EU through the territory of Ukraine. And its action also ends with the battle of the Kremlin clock in the very near December 31.
And the rear-guard fire exclusively in the direction of Nord Stream 2 should not be particularly misleading, nor should it be absolutely tempting. This episode, actually supporters of the “Atlantic energy solidarity” anyway lost, will necessarily be compensated in some other direction. And now we can even more or less confidently say which one. Here, excuse me, I don’t need to think much: to have a peppy winter morning, still seemingly dusty, though outdated (both morally and purely technically), the Ukrainian GTS.
You have been made a victim.
There is no need to invent anything: in principle, the Ukrainian pipe was doomed initially - and without any “northern” and “Turkish” flows. And this is understandable: in the end, if someone really needed her in the West, they would have bought it a long time ago. And the Russian Federation, after five years of “revolutionary guidnosti”, by definition, had no political opportunity to prevent this: there is no doubt that if the same Americans, for example, would desire this pipe for at least three pennies, they would have to carried out with a bow, tying a yellow-black ribbon decorated with asterisks in imitation of a star-striped flag. However, for some reason they did not wish.
And the explanation here can be only one and very simple: the Ukrainian gas transportation system was neither for the American business, nor the American state for nothing, excuse me, it is not needed.
It is quite enough for them to guarantee the ability to close the valve at any time.
And we will be frank, we have such an opportunity right now, in general.
Actually, here again, nothing needs to be invented: the fate of both the new / old transit agreement, and the Ukrainian gas transportation system in general at the moment, depends entirely on the degree of sanity of the current Ukrainian authorities. Well, the sanity of the Ukrainian authorities, in turn, in any, even severe and clinical form, depends solely on the United States itself.
They say they will be insane - but what to do?
Having removed sovereignty from their shoulders, I'm sorry, they don’t cry through the pipe. In general, be patient, Cossack Gavrilyuk. You are a Cossack.
That is, in this particular case, everyone perfectly understands that Ukraine will be able to sign, and even more so, to fulfill in the energy (as in any other) sphere, only what it is allowed to sign and execute. And here, in principle, we and Europeans have a certain backlash in time: in fact, neither the colossal LNG production capacities currently under construction on the US East coast, nor the vessels for its transportation in necessary volumes are ready for America.
And here, apparently, there is either a special cynicism, or a correct understanding of the situation: the Russian Federation has long and calmly expressed its proposals to the tripartite commission of the EU - Russia - Ukraine: it is ready either to conclude a transit contract according to European rules (that is, in fact , do not really conclude anything at all, buying the necessary transit capacities from Ukraine as necessary through auctions), if Ukraine has time to complete all the necessary procedures, or extend the current contract for one, 2020th year. Because by the year 2021, new plants on the East Coast will be commissioned, after which, given the current semi-colonial status of Ukraine, hardly anyone will give at least one cent for its gas transportation system.
And, judging by the program of technical consultations announced by the Russian Minister of Energy Novak that will take place during the current week, the main expectations of the Russian side are connected with the Europacket. And that means that now, in general, most likely, it’s simply not talking about a big agreement. By the way, oddly enough, this is understood not only in Moscow, but also in Naftogaz, which officially “allowed the possibility” of concluding an agreement for a period of one year, which was notified to the Russian side.
In fact, at this point in time - this is objectively the most working version of what is called, and its implementation would become, albeit a temporary, but the most optimal scenario.
But when Russian President Putin at the BRICS summit last week spoke bluntly about the risk of gas transit through Ukraine being terminated, he, in general, not at all surprising, knew exactly what he was talking about. Moreover, this is not just a risk, but a very likely scenario. And in this we must at least be aware of all those who plan to at least somehow interact with this strange territorial entity.
And then only one thing will be interesting - when the point of no return is finally passed.
Not some hypothetical, but quite crude and real, connected with the technological features of pumping Russian gas through the Ukrainian pipe.
It's not a joystick on a computer screen to move money from place to place. This, excuse me, is iron and giant volumes of natural gas going through it in exactly the same direction. Or not reaching in one, it sometimes also happens. Especially if the intermediary ceases to suit the buyer and / or seller for any reason. Or they both cease to arrange an intermediary, for example.
And then, when it is finally completed, then at least something truly good will happen for Ukraine and it will become truly free, at least in the energy field: Russians and Europeans will cease to pretend to all sorts of nonsense, and American partners too will not be annoying for nothing: sorry, mission complete. The point won by these damned Russians in a big energy game. Well, no one will remember that this point actually once once belonged to the people of Ukraine. In the end, the same Kurds know that the old rule applies: the problems of the Indians are not part of the sheriff’s duties and that’s why they shouldn’t even worry him, this very sheriff, at least in the least.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.