Why the Abe administration will continue on November 21 at 15:58

The term of office of Prime Minister Abe will reach 2887 from the first administration on November 20th, the longest in the history of constitutional government.
I think there are many people who support and don't support, but why does it become clear when you analyze the opinion poll to see why it became a long-term government?
This time, I tried to revisit the past data.
(Miki Masaki)

3 pinches ...

Prime Minister Abe's tenure will be November 20, 2019, the longest in the history of constitutional government.
This time, the analysis uses the results of public opinion surveys that NHK has accumulated every month.

The graph shows the approval rating (January 2013 to November 2019) for about seven years since the second Abe administration launched in December 2012.

(Note: The current telephone survey is over 18 years old and has been conducted using the RDD method for landline phones and mobile phones. However, the survey method has been changed twice. I ca n’t compare, but I ’ll compare the general trend with the past)

The approval rate recorded a maximum of 66% immediately after the launch, but at the time of the 2015 security legislation discussion, it fell sharply to 30% in three phases in 2017 and 2018, which dropped sharply due to Moritomo-Kake problem. “Unsupported” became more frequent.

However, it rebounded every time the approval rating declined, and it did not fall below the minimum support rate of 35% recorded in July 2017, and has remained almost 50% since April 2019.

Compared to the fact that the approval rate at the end of successive administrations of the Liberal Democratic and Democratic governments, which changed every year after the first Abe administration, was low at around 20%, there is a fixed support layer that stably exceeds 30%. You can see that.

look like? Does not look like? Koizumi and Abe

Why has the administration been maintained for a long time? I would like to proceed with the verification while comparing with the characteristics of the support rate of the other long-term administration of the Heisei era, the Koizumi administration.

The key to recovery is “diplomatic” and “election”

The Koizumi administration, which boasts over 80% of support at the time of its establishment and boasts national popularity, has repeatedly made ups and downs in the same way as the Abe administration for five years and five months.

The two administrations have something in common. There was noticeable diplomatic movement and elections when the fallen support rating reversed to rise.

First of all, in terms of diplomacy, the Koizumi administration's “Japan-North Korea summit” was followed, and it rose sharply in November 2002.

On the other hand, in the Abe administration, the approval rate has increased toward the 58% peak in February 2017. From the latest end of 2016 to the beginning of 2017, diplomatic events such as a Japan-Russia summit, a visit to the Pearl Harbor with President Obama, and the first Japan-US summit with President Trump have increased, and the expectations of voters have increased. Is also possible.

Another common feature is the recovery from the dissolution of the House of Representatives. The symbol of the Koizumi administration is the 2005 “postal election”.

The approval rating soared from 47% to 58% before and after the election.

On the other hand, in the second to fourth Abe administrations, there were five national elections in 7 years, and two of them were disbanded in 2014 and 2017 when Prime Minister Abe took steps as the approval rate dropped. It is a general election.

The approval rating has increased from 47% to 50% before and after the 2014 House of Representatives election, and has increased from 37% to 46% before and after the 2017 House of Representatives election.

Koizumi administration with broad support, Abe administration with fixed support

Support divided by men and women

Two Prime Ministers who have strategically maintained a long-term administration. However, looking closely at the approval rate, there is a big difference in terms of who will support it. In other words, it is the Abe administration supported by a specific solid support layer against the Koizumi administration, which has gained wide support.

The difference between men and women is easy to understand. In the Koizumi administration, there is a small difference in the acceptance rate between men and women due to the overlap of gender lines.

In the Abe cabinet, men have consistently exceeded women since the second administration. The average gender difference is 8 points. The preference is divided between men and women.

Differences are also seen by age group. The difference in the support rates by the Koizumi administration's age is a certain level, but rather, it has been reduced at the end of the administration.

In contrast, in the Abe administration, the difference between young people up to their 30s, who have a high support rate, and older people, who have a low tendency, gradually widens, and in the fourth administration, the average difference exceeds 10 points. . In the Abe administration, the characteristics of those who support and those who do not support have become clearer as the year progresses.

“Bipolarization” progressing between the Liberal Democratic support layer and others (no support / opposition support layer)

The “bipolarization” of the voters is even more pronounced as a result of the supporting parties.

The Koizumi administration is in this state when it is divided into the “Liberal Democratic Support Group”, the “Opposition Party Support Group”, and the “Unsupported Group” that does not have a supporting party.

In comparison, the Abe administration has a lower support rate for the unsupported group than the Koizumi administration.
Rather, it is closer to the opposition support layer, and it is far from the Liberal support layer, which is highly stable in the 70% -90% range.

Looking at the average support rate since the second Abe administration, the Liberal Democratic support group exceeds 80%, while the opposition party support group and the unsupported group both have a range of around 60 points, in the 20% range. . Moreover, the difference between the 3rd and 4th administrations is widening compared to the 2nd administration.

After the second Abe administration, the unsupported support rate started at the 40% level, then bottomed at 14% in August 2015 and recovered to 39% in February 2017. However, after the sudden fall due to the Moritomo-Kake problem, the 4th government still has fallen to around 20%.

Mr. Takashi Mitake, emeritus professor at the University of Tokyo, analyzes this.

“Mr. Koizumi takes the lead. When you want to do something like this, or if you want to bring the whole political flow in this way, be sure to put in a one-phrase word that suits it. When I thought I was going to do it, I'm going to say popping again and everyone will follow it naturally. ''

“In the case of Mr. Abe, I always go back to what happened or something and explain that this was this. And at first, I was confused as to what was pursued. Koizumi politics has a bit of populism, and even if you don't explain much, people will follow you like “Let ’s go,” but Abe does n’t. Because there is a layer that absolutely doesn't like Abe-san, so nobody thinks that Abe politics is populism. "

Reason for support Reason for support

“Looks better than other cabinets.” Change to passive support


In the 4th administration, support for unsupported people, who account for 30% to 40% of the total, should be a big pain for the administration. But why can you keep winning the election?

Looking at “reasons of those who support the Abe Cabinet”, the number of people who say “because it looks better than other cabinets” increases with the length of the administration, and since March 2017 40% to 50% of those who support it %.

The motivation for the firm support that continues to support the Abe Cabinet is not the expectation of policy or the ability to execute, but it seems to have transformed into the "reactive support" of the elimination law, so to say "it seems to be better than other cabinets" I heard.

On the other hand, “reasons of people who do not support the Abe Cabinet” increased greatly because “the personality is not reliable” from the end of the 3rd administration to the 4th, when the approval rate declined due to the Moritomo-Kake problem, etc. “I ca n’t have it,” surpassed most months. “Personality”, not “policy”, is an unsupported keyword.

Looking at the evaluation of individual policies, it has been found that the Abe administration has reasons to attract both the fixed support layer and the unsupported layer.

Most evaluated “diplomatic / security”

In the most recent survey in November, 23% of “diplomatic and security” were the most common as a result of having chosen from the six policy issues that the Abe Cabinet had evaluated most as a past achievement. Especially in the Liberal Democratic support group, 33%, one out of three.

One of the backgrounds is the change in the security environment. In the surveys in July and September 2017 after North Korea launched a series of ballistic missiles, more than 80% showed anxiety, and people said they would “evaluate” when the government launched strict measures and pressures on North Korea. More than half, and the percentage of Liberal support was even higher.

Looking at other items of diplomacy, for example, in the August 2019 survey that asked about “decision to remove Korea from export control preferential countries” while the relations between Japan and South Korea deteriorated, “support” was 55%, supporting the private sector The layer was 66%. These foreign policies have gained a higher level of support from the fixed support layer while gaining a certain level of overall evaluation.

"Abenomics" on the signboard

The percentage of those who gave “economic policy” in the question asked about the achievements evaluated by the Abe Cabinet was fourth, but since the second administration, “Abenomics” has launched bold monetary easing, fiscal mobilization, and growth strategies. Some analysts analyze that they are solidifying the solidarity of the Liberal Support Group.

Certainly, about Abenomics, 46% of respondents answered “I expect” in a July 2016 survey, but it was as high as 76% among the Liberal Democratic supporters. What is this difference?

Hitotsubashi University professor Hiroaki Nakakita said that “Abenomics” is the return to the traditional method of the Liberal Democratic Party that aims to grow the economy and grow, and the Abe administration is the first to second administration, the Koizumi administration era He points out that the shift from “reform” inherited from the past to “growth”.

On top of that, “Growth” is easy to accept for the support base of the Liberal Democratic Party. In particular, things like national land resilience and public works have been denied during the Koizumi Reform and the Democratic Party administration in the 2000s, but growth was like that. While the word “reform” is easy to reach the non-partisan group, it can also create enemies, and Prime Minister Abe will reform the LDP to the extent that it will not hurt it. “The big difference with the Koizumi administration is that we are solidifying.”

The Abe administration has raised the consumption tax rate twice to 8% in April 2014 and to 10% in October 2019. Before the consumption tax rate was raised to 10%, as a result of hearing the pros and cons of three choices, including "I can't say either", "opposite" never exceeded half.

Overcoming the challenge of raising the consumption tax, which the past administration struggled with, is that the Nikkei average stock price has risen since the second Abe administration, and the employment rate for university students continues at a high level. In particular, it can be considered that there is a certain evaluation of economic stability as a whole.

The origin of the LDP

Constitutional revisions that Prime Minister Abe continues to show willingness can be given as support for the fixed support layer. In a survey before the upper house election in July 2019, about 30% of the results of the three choices of “Necessary”, “Necessary”, and “None” about amending the current constitution. Opinions were broken.

However, “Necessary” for the Liberal Democratic layer is 43%, which is 10 points higher than the whole. As far as the trend of public opinion surveys is concerned, there is no excitement of the constitutional momentum of the whole nation regarding constitutional amendments. However, continuing to raise important policies since the Liberal Democratic Party's formation seems to have solidified the LDP support base.

Memory of Democratic Party Administration

Compared to the Koizumi administration, where the Democratic Party's presence increased on the eve of the change of government, the Abe administration is also characterized by low expectations of the opposition party.

About 30% of respondents in the survey before the Senate election in July 2019 under the Abe administration replied that “there should be more opposition seats”. Nearly 70% of the opposition support group, but only 30% of the unsupported class. Although the approval rate of the Abe administration is low, expectations for the opposition party are low.

Prime Minister Abe used a lot of stimulating words such as `` Nightmare Democratic Party Administration '' and `` that dark and sluggish era '' in the election campaign of the Upper House election in July, and that the LDP can only bear the administration Has been stressed.

Even if the support rate of the unsupported class is low, the implicit assumption that “better than the Democratic Party” is nurtured in the voters, and it draws out negative support that “it seems to be better than other cabinets” right.

Mitake says:

“When I was told,“ That Democratic Party Administration, ”I felt Abe-san's better than that. That ’s why the change of government really worked for Abe. Not only did the government change, but it all worked for the later elections, so from a certain point Abe is like a win-win, and there are places where he won without fighting. "

Nakakita points out that:

“In contrast to Prime Minister Koizumi, who has gained enthusiastic support by launching“ reform, ”Prime Minister Abe does not have enthusiastic support from the public, but he still has passive support. Better than the Democratic Party, The economy is good and the politics is stable, which is underpinning. "

“Isn't it just made possible by the power of the administration, but it seems that the Democratic Party emerged after the failure of the opposition to the greatest power? Prime Minister Abe himself was done with considerable consciousness, and the Democratic Party failed. So if the people also have a good Abe administration, and if the Liberal Democratic Party is united by not being able to regain the administration, then the Abe Long-term Administration may have been established. ”

Bipolarization in elections

Decreasing willingness to vote may be the final cause of disappointment of the opposition party of the unsupported class, with the progress of the bipolarization of voters.

In the national elections held every year under the Abe administration, the turnout of the House of Representatives and the House of Representatives was conspicuous, and the vote of the House of Representatives in July 2019 was 48.80%, less than half. In the survey before the national election, it can be confirmed that there is a marked decline in willingness to vote and interest in the election, especially in the unsupported class.

Many of the people who say “I will go to the election” are those who have political parties to support. The Abe administration has solidified its support layer and won the election and maintained the administration amidst the increasing polarization of those who went to vote and those who did not.

The blind spot is “wind”?

Then, is there no blind spot in the Abe administration? One of the points is whether other options are born. In the July 2019 Upper House election, the “Reiwa Shinsengumi”, which was established just before the election, was a proportional representative with a vote rate of 4.6% and two seats, and was also called the Reiwa Whirlwind.

There is also an example of the “Party of Hope” that was launched with the flag of “Reformation and Conservation” aiming to become a political party that changes to the LDP before the election of the House of Representatives in 2017.

Despite immediately after the establishment of Yuriko Koike under the Governor of Tokyo, the support party's question in the survey before the House of Representatives attracted around 5%.

The party of hope was later disbanded, and there has been no spread of support for the new group. However, if there is an alternative to the Liberal Democratic Party and the “wind” blows, there may be a change in long-lasting stability.

The situation will change if the trust of the voters is lost, the support of the relatives is lost, or the unsupported layer is further supported.

In November 2019, the Abe Cabinet just remodeled and the two ministers resigned one after another, but in November, the way of the “Cherry Blossom Viewing Party” hosted by the Prime Minister has become a big problem .

In any case, the government is trying to settle the problem by immediately changing the minister or deciding to stop viewing the cherry blossoms, but the criticism of the long-term administration has been slow.

The voting rate is an important factor that brings together these various factors and brings about changes in the election. The Abe administration has continued to win in elections. However, the support of unsupported people is low and the voter turnout in the election is low. Elections in which 40% to 50% of voters do not even vote continue.

If the voter's interest in “election choices” rises and the rest of the voter goes to the election… there might be a change in the political situation that seems to be a rock.

Election project reporter Miki Masaki
Joined in 1996. After working at the Yokohama Bureau, Tokyo Metropolitan Broadcasting Center, and the National Research Institute for Broadcasting Culture, he is currently in charge of political awareness surveys.