"What do you think about the Coalition Government between the PSOE and Podemos?" A foreign MEP just asked me. "The worst possible solution." Since the 2015 elections certified the death of bipartisanship, I have been warning that there will only be strong governments if they are coalition governments. I add now: to face an institutional, territorial and social crisis such as the one that Spain is experiencing, the coaligated parties must be purely constitutional and fairly homogeneous parties . Walter Lippmann said it correctly; "There is no greater need for those who live in community than to be governed, self-governed if possible; well governed if they have that luck. But however, governed"
We Spaniards are not going to be lucky enough to be well governed or even governed, because Pedro Sanchez has lost three seats, seven hundred sixty-three thousand votes, 31 senators; has managed to strengthen the separatists and give a speaker to Vox. Without a doubt, Sanchez must now have such a deep sleep that he can sleep with Pablo Iglesias who, with fewer votes, has no vetoes; to cover with More Country, PNV, BNG, look for Teruel Exists and to make independentistas cuddles to obtain their abstention. We already have a "progressive" government with Caribbean resabs, an unclear position around Catalonia and marked by anti-capitalists. "It's not this, it's not this!", Ortega would say.
Catalonia is the most important issue we have at hand. A street revolt is finally controlled, an economic crisis is finally overcome, but the breakup of the Nation is by definition irreversible. Secessionists believe that demographic changes will allow them to achieve a bulky majority in any type of election (regional or national) and then the situation will be irreversible, and that is exactly what awaits us if we do not act quickly and forcefully and if we do not review The lessons of history.
The first one is remembered by Cambó: "A Catalan separatist uprising could choose to produce (...) the moment when Spain was struggling with serious internal difficulties, or was engaged in an external conflict." ( By concord , 1927). In 1640, Pau Claris revolts with the exhausted Treasury, our troops beat in retreat in France and revolt Portugal and Andalusia. In 1898, La Veu de Catalunya called on the Catalans to break the moorings with Spain, when we are still fighting in Cuba, the Philippines and Puerto Rico. In 1931, Francesc Macià proclaims the Catalan Statue when the Republic has just been proclaimed in Madrid. In 1934 Lluís Companys repeats the play when Asturias and the Basque Country are on fire. Conclusion: nothing will help secessionists more than a government of socialists and podemites tolerated by secessionists, always willing to screw Sánchez (Rufián dixit ).
Second lesson: the Catalan question always ends up transcending our borders because it is not independent because one says it is; You are independent when others recognize you as such. And that recognition is what the diplocat is looking for . The internationalization of the conflict is a constant in our history. In 1640, the year I have referred to before, Pau Claris is placed under the protectorate of Louis XIII of France, much more centralist than Olivares. The adventure resulted in the loss of Roussillon and Cerdanya and the repeal of the Usatges. In 1919, a nationalist delegation moved to Versailles to ask for the protection of President Wilson, who did not even receive them. Already in the contemporary era, successive governments have been determined to ignore the international variant of the process . Only a constitutionalist government can assert Spain's reasons and curb the separatist offensive abroad.
Third lesson: secessionist processes are lit by the bourgeois, but capitalized by left movements. Pau Claris, a clergyman from the bourgeoisie, is the one who initiates the rebellion of 1640 but is overwhelmed by the plain people - the segadors - who ends up directing the movement; the Lliga de Prat y Cambó was so ignored by the Republican Esquerra de Catalunya de Macià y Companys that some of its leaders did not hesitate to help the Francoists financially. Now things are no different: Pujol launches the national construction process and Mas begins to build state structures, but today who is in charge of Barcelona City Council is Ada Colau and Junqueras is about to be able to govern the Generalitat with remote control .
After Catalonia, the economy. Some believe that geopolitical tensions (China-USA conflict; Brexit and Iran) will distort international trade, dislocate production chains and depress the world economy. Others, less pessimistic, believe that we are on the eve of a "Japanese" slowdown with growth, inflation and low interest but with much higher unemployment than there. Whatever the scenario, if we do nothing, we will continue to lose competitiveness and, what is worse, fueling the future deficit in which left and right populisms grow.
And so things, what to do? I go back to the story. The Spaniards reacted to the loss of the last overseas territories in two ways: the nationalists opted to leave a Spain they considered finished; the regenerationists, for turning over a pulseless Spain to get it afloat. Today the same thing happens: the separatists and the podemites believe that the time has come to leave home or, at least, to open the door for anyone who wants to leave. What Spain needs is a profound regeneration that begins with the reform of the Constitution, with three very clear ideas: to recover an idea of Spain that has faded over time; update the catalog of rights and freedoms and consolidate the state of autonomy by correcting the design and operational defects that time has revealed. This reform of the Constitution must be accompanied by a reformist process that covers many outstanding issues: the electoral system, education, justice, the tax system, etc. A second transition
Who can lead the process? It seems clear that this task cannot be addressed by a government chaired by Pedro Sánchez and formed - or supported - by those who want to destroy Spain or dream of importing an absolutely failed Bolivarian model. It seems obvious to me that Casado cannot abstain to prevent him from throwing himself into the arms of podemites or separatists , because once in Moncloa, then we do not take him out or with holy water, no matter how much he folds to the dictate of Pablo Iglesias or the demands of Junqueras. Wouldn't our voters then blame us for quasi-criminal naivety?
In any case, it is past water, because Sánchez has not even contacted the constitutionalist parties. He is wrong to not count on them. I have spent enough years in politics to know that the regeneration that Spain needs is only possible if the premises that facilitated the first transition are respected: absolute respect for the law; consensus of all constitutionalist parties and the previous delimitation of what is to be reformed and what should not be touched. Concluded this second transition, it would be a matter of dissolving the Cortes and returning to partisan competition, which should be the rule in periods of normality, but not in the constituents.
As things stand, I can only remind Sanchez of the scene of Don Juan Tenorio and the statue: "And that clock? It is the measure of your time. Does it expire now? Yes (...) And those remain no more? (...) Don Juan, a point of contrition gives a soul salvation. " As the castizos say it should make you look, what lessons history gives us.
José Manuel García-Margallo y Marfil, former Foreign Minister, is a MEP of the PP.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
Know moreGrandstand In danger zone!
The gang walk For a new consensus
Outdoor The 10-N Rural Booty