Not everyone clearly understands that the separation of forces and means in the three settlements is a purely symbolic act that does not change the situation in the conflict zone to any significant extent. It must be understood that the total length of the front line is about 400 kilometers. The withdrawal of troops in several local zones does not change the military potential of opponents. It’s just that the parties, leaving their positions, moving troops and equipment deep into the depths, thus demonstrate their readiness to begin the process of large-scale creation of a demilitarized zone along the entire line of contact.
The next breakdown in the separation of forces and means - this time near the village of Petrovsky, located in the Donetsk People’s Republic - does not mean that peace talks are canceled, and Kiev is about to go on the offensive or something like that. The Ukrainian authorities claim that the withdrawal of troops and weapons scheduled for Monday did not take place due to the fault of the "separatists" who allegedly fired at Ukrainian positions the day before. Even if this is so (which I strongly doubt, knowing that the ceasefire is violated mainly by units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine), then this is just an empty pretext to move the deadlines.
In general, the seven days of silence with which Ukraine for some reason determines the possibility of breeding is a strange and not too logical condition. Withdraw troops, and there will be no mutual shelling for you at all times. Moreover, the shootings, which, according to the right-wing radicals from the "National Corps", took place shortly before the separation of forces and assets from Zolotoy, did not prevent this very breeding.
Apparently, Vladimir Zelensky simply did not succeed this time in agreeing with Interior Minister Arsen Avakov, who controls most of the nationalists who oppose what they call "surrender to Russia." Let me remind you that the members of the “National Corps” located in Zolotoy seem to have forgotten about their own threats to take up positions on the front line left by the APU.
And the ten-day ultimatum of the leader of the political wing of the Azov regiment Andrei Biletsky, presented to Vladimir Zelensky, also somehow quietly sunk into oblivion.
Petrovskoye is the last frontier that the Ukrainian president needs to overcome in order for a meeting to be held in the Norman format, which he urgently needs as evidence of his political capacity. Nationalists are well aware of this and, in all likelihood, asked for a price that was too high for the non-interference in the withdrawal of forces and assets in this sector, which the ruling team could not pay without serious reputation risks.
The bargaining will continue, and until the parties agree, the breeding will not take place. It is easy to justify Zelensky. Someone from the nearest forest will give an automatic fire to the Ukrainian trenches - that’s a violation of the silence regime. Again, you need to wait until it lasts for a week. What nationalists demand is easy to guess. Having no representation in power, they nevertheless want to not only maintain a priority influence on the political life of the country, but, like under Petro Poroshenko, shape its course from A to Z. That is, in essence, Zelensky should remain a sign, radicals will lead the state from behind.
It is clear that the current Ukrainian authorities cannot agree to such conditions. And here the conflict goes into the final stage. In fact, if the right-wing radicals continue to act as the main political force, then the peace process, which at the very least, stumbles, but still taxes to the end of hostilities, will be curtailed, the troops will return to positions at the village of Lugansk and Zolotoy, about a meeting in Norman format will have to be forgotten, and clashes on the contact line and shelling will intensify. This is the main goal of the lads from the "National Corps" and supporters of Petro Poroshenko (another wing of the nationalists).
That is, we are talking about two diametrically opposite ways of developing what, by mistake, they continue to call the Ukrainian state. The Ukrainian government is able to emerge victorious from the battle with the radicals. To do this, she has all the necessary power means. But besides this, we need political will, the presence or absence of which we will know in the coming weeks.
The author’s point of view may not coincide with the position of the publisher.